Key Points
- My betting tip is back down to his last winning mark for this race
- This horse is unbeaten at Newmarket, so it’s no surprise he is here today
- The William Buick booking is notable considering his record for the yard
Today’s betting tip runs in the 1m 4f Handicap at Newmarket, and I think he will take a lot of beating. With the stars looking to be aligned for him, he should have no excuses.
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Betting advice
- 17:10 Newmarket -
Whathappensinvegas
@ 4/1 (3 places) -
1pt each way
Take the three places on offer with Betfred!
When it comes to backing Whathappensinvegas, Betfred are your best option! They are currently offering the joint best available price of 4/1 and they are one of the bookmakers offering three places despite only seven lining up. In addition to that, I believe they have the best sign up offer around currently. If you
bet £10, you’ll get £50 in free bets. Don’t miss out on this one!
Whathappensinvegas can maintain his unbeaten record at Newmarket!
While I have great respect for some of the horses racing against Whathappensinvegas today, I think he is the most likely winner and the 4/1 currently available offers plenty of value. Keep reading to find out why!
Whathappensinvegas is back down to his last winning mark for this race
The key to backing horses in a Handicap race is all about finding the
best handicapped
horse rather than just the best horse. Whatshappeninvegas fits this criteria, as he has just fallen back down to his last winning mark of 75. So if he puts his best foot forward, we know he is capable of winning off this mark.
Finding horses that are
capable
of winning off their current mark, is a better option than selecting those coming into a race in winning form, because the handicapper already has a grip on those.
For me, most of these look in the grip of the handicapper now. Being a three-year-old, Atlantic Sunset could have more to come, and he gets a huge 12lb weight-for-age allowance. But he will need to improve considerably being up in the weights and taking on older horses. I’d rate Claymore as the biggest danger, as he’s a talented horse that has slipped to a dangerous mark. Nonetheless, he is on a long losing streak which dates back to June 2022, so he must be opposed.
He is unbeaten at Newmarket, so it is no surprise that they come here
Newmarket is quite a unique track and I like to see a horse with course form if I’m intending to bet on them. The first three quarters of a mile of the straight has undulations, and many horses simply cannot handle them.
Whatshappeninvegas ticks the course form box and he is unbeaten at the track. That said, it is a small sample size with just one win from one run here but it’s enough to show he can perform here and that is the key.
TheWilliam Buick booking is notable given his strong record for the yard
It’s somewhat notable that William Buick has been booked by Ian Williams for the ride on Whathappensinvegas. Buick has never ridden the horse before, so we have nothing to go on from that perspective, but he has a very strong record for the stable.
If you look across his all time record, William Buick is 23/157 (15%) for the Ian Williams yard, and he has an 80/157 (51%) for finishes in the first four places. To ÂŁ1 level stakes, he shows a profit of +ÂŁ33.08, which is very impressive.
If you limit it to the last five years, the initial figures are very similar with 13/83 (16%) winning and 42/83 (51%) in the first four. However, the profit to ÂŁ1 level stakes is even higher at +ÂŁ45.33.
Whilst a 15%-16% win ratio doesn’t blow you away, it is worth noting that Ian Williams’ strike rate over the past five years is 9%, so it is certainly noteworthy.
Can Whathappensinvegas return to winning ways today?
For me, there is more than enough to suggest that Whathappensinvegas can win this race, and that he is great value at 4/1. I personally see him much shorter, at around 2/1 to 5/2 for this race.
He may still be too short for some of you to play each way, but with the three places on offer, despite just seven lining up, it is still worthwhile. The way I view it is that we are getting 80% of our stake back if he finishes second or third, and I’d be shocked if he doesn’t manage that at the very least.
Down to his last winning mark, returning to Newmarket where he is one from one, and with William Buick in the saddle, I’m hoping he just gets the job done and we won’t need the places anyway. The hood was left off last time but it returns here with him stepping back up in trip and that looks wise.
The only slight concern I have is that field size and lack of pace in the field, as Whathappensinvegas can sometimes race keenly. However, I’m hopeful both the reapplication of the hood and the top jockey booking will help negate that element. On that basis, I’m happy with a 1pt each way bet here.
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