Key Points
- Today’s betting tip loves racing at this track!
- He is very well handicapped and looks ready to strike today!
- This horse caught my eye last time out, and has more in his favour this time!
Although we have the Premier Raceday action at Newbury, including the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes, we’ll be heading to Thirsk today, where my betting tip runs in an interesting 1m Handicap. While it is always nice to have winners at the big meetings, especially on a Saturday, a winner at Thirsk pays the same as a winner at Newbury!
If you’re new to my betting.co.uk articles, I write four per week. These are predominantly betting tips for the day’s action, but I do produce other types of content too, such as big race trends and antepost selections. Speaking of the latter, I have already put out antepost selections for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival and the 2026 Grand National, so if you haven’t already checked them out, make sure you do.
This is my last betting tip for the week, but I will be back next week with more! If you want more betting tips in the interim, check out the section for my Discord at the bottom of this article.
Betting advice
17:05 Thirsk -
Carnival Zain
@9/1 (4 places) -
0.5pt each way
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Carnival Zain can get us celebrating on Saturday!
As the old saying goes it’s “Horses For Courses” and Carnival Zain always seems to perform well here at Thirsk. His overall form figures from five runs here read 11574, and below I’ll explain why I think he can be a winner today.
Carnival Zain loves racing here at Thirsk!
Carnival Zain’s two wins at this track speak for themselves, coming off marks of 68 and 86, with his first over the 1m trip. The next start here was also over the 1m distance, but it was after a 218-day break and it was also off a career high mark of 91, so he did remarkably well to finish fifth. The following seventh was also off a career high mark of 91, but was over just 7f.
His most recent run here was almost two years later. It is also worth noting that he was again returning from a break, this time of 183 days. In addition to that, he had a horrific draw in Stall 16 to overcome. Considering the absence and the fact he needed to race wide from an unfavourable draw, I think he did exceptionally well to finish fourth, only dropping away late on. Back to his beloved Thirsk, off a 1lb lower mark and from a much kinder draw in Stall 2, I think he could be very dangerous in this race.
He has become very well handicapped and looks ready to strike!
As touched upon in the prior section, Carnival Zain was rated 91 at his peaks in September 2022 and May 2023. He has also won off a mark as high as 86, producing a career best RPR of 97. That win off 86 was his latest win and it came all the way back in August 2022. Since then he has never finished better than fourth. However, his mark has tumbled to reflect that.
So whilst he has won off as high as 86 and been rated as high as 91, his latest run came off a mark of just 70. Having been dropped 1lb for that performance, which looks generous considering the factors against him, he now comes here off a mark of just 69. Considering what he was previously capable of, he looks dangerously treated off a mark of 69, especially as he ran so well last time out, and off a 1lb higher mark.
He caught the eye last time and has much more in his favour this time!
I really do feel Carnival Zain's latest run has gone under the radar here. You can always forgive a horse for a tame finishing effort when they are returning from an absence, as many need a run on the track to achieve peak fitness.
Likewise, you can also forgive a poor finish when the horse has been forced to race wide from an unfavourable draw. The wider you have to run, the more ground you’ll cover and the more energy you’ll exert. Considering both elements were against him, I think the latest run can be marked up significantly. When his three prior runs produced form figures of 786, it was nice to see him bounce back to form with a solid effort.
Can Carnival Zain bounce back to winning ways?
With everything in his favour today, he surely has a chance of bouncing back to winning ways. He was a classy horse at his peak, and whilst he’s not the horse he once was, I do feel he is more than capable off a mark in the 60s. The way he ran with the odds stacked against him last time out was a huge step in the right direction, and hopefully he can build on that now.
Whilst I do like his chances, I also do appreciate that he has not won a race since August 2022. Also, on a few occasions, he hasn’t looked as though he’s been putting in a full effort. As a result of these concerns, I am limiting this bet to half stakes. However, that latest run gives me enough optimism to back him today, especially with his record at this track. I think at 9/1 with four places on offer, he looks a superb each way shot, and if he puts it all together, he could come out on top here.
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