Key Points
- Betting tips for all three of Saturday’s Graded races
- State Man and Lossiemouth clash in the Morgiana Hurdle at Puchestown
- I have a very hot NAP pick for the Grade 2 Ascot Hurdle
An action-packed Saturday with three Graded races
This weekend brings no less than three Graded races at three very different courses. I’m previewing all three here today, along with a betting tip for each. The action begins at Punchestown where Willie Mullins unleashes two of his big guns in the Morgiana Hurdle. On Saturday, we will witness one of the biggest clashes of the season so far as stablemates State Man and Lossiemouth prepare to line up.
Next we head to the Grade 2 Ascot Hurdle, and this is where you will find my top pick for the weekend. The Mares’ Novice Hurdle winner, Golden Ace, and the Triumph Hurdle third-place Salver contest, but I think they are both a bit out of their depth in this company, and worth taking on. Last but not least, we head to Haydock for the Betfair Chase where you can make a case for a few of the runners but my selection is a double figure price and looks primed to get into the winners enclosure. We have a superb weekend ahead so make sure you grab yourself some free bets from BetMGM
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14:10 Punchestown - Morgiana Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m - State Man
Here we'll take a look at the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle, where Willie Mullins has two potential Champion Hurdle horses in the lineup: Lossiemouth, and last year's Morgiana winner, State Man. Personally, I think Lossiemouth would need to improve a substantial amount to beat State Man here, but it could all come down to which of them is ready to go first time out.
The potential spanner in their works is Gordon Elliott’s Brighterdaysahead, and this is a mare with one huge engine. Her jumping definitely needs to improve, but this race is where we get to find out if she is Champion Hurdle quality, or whether we are more likely to see her in the Mares’ Hurdle instead. Daddy Long Legs and Sir Gerhard are also declared to run, but I’d be surprised if either were good enough to get competitive here.
GJ’s Verdict
From a betting perspective, I won’t be backing Brighterdaysahead, as her jumping leaves a lot to be desired. So, it comes down to the two market leaders, which are the Willie Mullins pair. While Lossiemouth is a super mare and gets her allowance here, I find it difficult to see past
State Man. He is a true champion,
who turns up time and time again to beat all of his Grade 1 rivals, and that alone decides the vote for me on this occasion.
14:45 Ascot - Ascot Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 3f - Lucky Place (NAP)
The Grade 2 Ascot Hurdle is next on my list and I have quite a strong fancy here. Golden Ace currently tops the market, but she isn’t for me. She is stepping outside of Mares’ Novice company to contest against experienced geldings, and this will be a far tougher task than any previous races she has competed in so far.
Salver is another I’m not on board with. Although he was third in the Triumph Hurdle, which looks solid enough form on paper, he will meet much tougher opposition here and I’m not convinced he’s got what it takes. Olly Murphy’s Thunder Rock has plenty of talent on his day, but he is a bit hit and miss. I simply cannot trust him to be . Technically, Blueking D’oroux has the best form on paper, and he won this race last year. However, he is beginning to look like he needs more distance, and I don’t feel he has got the speed to contest here.
GJ’s Verdict
All of that leads me
Lucky Place. He is still unexposed to some degree and looks like he could improve again here. Although he was beaten by Golden Ace at Taunton last year, it was only by a very short distance and he was carrying a stone more in weight that day.
He is much better off in the weights this time around, and the Nicky Henderson yard is finally starting to fire, so I think Lucky Place is well worth a punt here.
15:05 Haydock - Betfair Chase (Grade 1) 3m 1f - Hewick
The highlight race on Saturday is the Betfair Chase, and this is a race I’ve been looking forward to for quite a while now. Royal Pagaille returns to defend his title, after winning this race last season. He could go well again, but I don’t think the ground conditions will be quite as soft as he likes. Ahoy Senor ran a surprisingly eye-catching race last time out. However, he doesn’t always jump too well, and consequently doesn’t get his head in front very often, which is a bit concerning.
Based on his seasonal debut at Wetherby, Bravemansgame seems to be back in form. However, he is a horse that needs everything to go his way, which does make him hard to win with. The current favourite, Grey Dawning, is a fairly obvious shout, but he is a little too short in the market considering he steps out of Novice company for the first time, and has yet to prove himself over this distance.
GJ’s Verdict
I think The Real Whacker is going under the radar at a double-figure price, as he seems in great form, and certainly worth a small each way punt. However, my main Betfair Chase selection is
Hewick. He is already a proven Stayer, and although he might prefer the ground a little faster, he has race fitness on his side and looks ready to go well again.
He finished second behind Envoi Allen last time out, and a repeat effort would see him firmly in the mix
at the finishing line.
My betting tips for Saturday 👇
- 14:10 Punchestown - State Many
- 14:45 Ascot - Lucky Place (NAP)
- 15:05 Haydock - Hewick
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