Key Points
- Today’s betting tip drops down into Class 5 company
- My pick for today has the perfect conditions for this 5f Handicap
- This horse is handicapped to strike, judging from his form at this track
My betting tip for Saturday comes in the 5f Handicap at Chester, and after a couple of steps in the right direction the last two runs, I think this horse is ready to win.
I’m the resident horse racing tipster here and I typically post four betting tips most weeks, but you’ll sometimes find other types of content from me too, including guides, big race trends and antepost picks.
By the way, don’t forget to check out my live antepost selections. The first of those runs today in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (16:10: Ascot). I also have selections for the Goodwood Cup next Tuesday (29 July), and then the St Leger in September.
Looking ahead to next year, I have already published antepost picks for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival, and the 2026 Aintree Grand National as well, so make sure you check those out to get the early prices.
Betting advice
- 15:45 Chester -
Night On Earth
@ 9/2 (3 places) -
0.75pt each way
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Night On Earth can lead them a merry dance at Chester!
There are tons of positives about Night On Earth in the 5f Handicap tomorrow and in this article, I’ll be breaking them down for you. Make sure that you read on to the end to understand my logic!
My betting tip for Saturday drops down into Class 5 company
During this campaign, Night On Earth has been bouncing back and forth between Class 3 and Class 4 races. And I find it noteworthy that his continuously falling mark sees him dropped back down into Class 5 company today.
His Class 5 record over 5f reads 114212. When limited to Handicap races only, it reads 4212.
Many people underestimate the impact that a drop in Class can have on a horse and its chances of winning. Last time out at Newmarket, Night On Earth was taking on horses rated as highly as 85 and today, his rivals are rated between 58 and 74.
Night On Earth has his ideal conditions in this race
If you asked me to describe the perfect conditions for Night On Earth, I would say he wants quick ground, a sharp 5f sprint with a left-hand bend, and a low draw. He has all of those things on his wish list today, so he simply has no excuses. Combine all of that with the aforementioned drop in Class, and he really should make a big impact.
In addition, we know he enjoys running at this particular track, as he is a previous C&D winner. I also find it interesting that his drop down in Class is coupled with the addition of a visor as well.
The last time he ran over 5f at Chester on decent ground, he finished fifth, off a mark of 82. He was beaten by just one and half lengths in a Class 2 (0-100) Handicap, and produced a RPR of 85. It’s also worth noting that Night On Earth’s performance that day saw him with a horrible draw in stall twelve, so it can be marked up considerably. That run wasn’t years ago either, it was in May 2024.
At his peak, Night On Earth was rated 95 by the handicapper, and he produced a career-best RPR of 100. Now I’m under no illusions that this was way back in 2022 and he’s not the same horse anymore.
That said, he still won four races in 2024, with those victories coming off marks of 68, 75, 79 and 81, so he is certainly handicapped to strike now that he has fallen to a mark of just 69. Those last three wins all came off higher marks, with the latest coming off 12lb higher, which was less than a year ago in August 2024.
As recently as New Year's Eve he was holding his own in Class 2 company, beaten just a length, and producing a RPR of 88. It’s also notable that he has turned a corner in his last two runs, with third and fourth places where he was only beaten by two to three lengths on each occasion. This makes me feel even more certain that he is capable of winning off his current mark of 69.
Can Night On Earth get his head back in front for the first time since August?
With so much in his favour as outlined above and an each way price available, I think Night On Earth is a decent bet today. Nonetheless, I do have a couple of niggling concerns.
Firstly, he still needs to build on those last couple of runs and prove he can bounce back to winning ways, which isn’t guaranteed when he’s currently on a losing streak of thirteen races. Secondly, I don’t think he’ll get it all his own way in front. Secret Mistral made all last time out, and has the benefit of being drawn in stall two, even lower than Night On Earth. Likewise, Street Life likes to go forward, but on the bright side, that one is drawn out wide in stall eight, so he is less of a threat.
Given these concerns, I’ve decided to trim the stake down to 0.75pts each way. With so many positives, I do feel he is well worth that much of a bet. I’m also pretty confident that dropping down to Class 5 company will see him have too much early pace for the others who like to go forward, and that they won’t be able to stick with him. Hopefully that will end up being the case, and he can lead straight from when the gates open, right through to the finishing line.
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