Key Points
- My Saturday betting tip has an excellent record over C&D
- At 1lb below his last winning mark, my selection is dangerous!
- This one made all for his latest win, and this C&D favours prominent runners
We are already on the board with Hurstwood winning for us on Wednesday, but I’m looking to add another winner to our list ! The horse I’ve selected for today’s betting tip runs at Southwell in a Class 4 (0-85) Handicap over 5f. I think he looks a fantastic each way bet and he has a superb chance of finishing in the places. Plus, he is more than capable of winning this race off his current mark.
If you are new to my articles, I usually post four betting tips each week, but sometimes I change it up a bit, with content looking at big race trends or antepost picks. By the way, don’t forget to check out my antepost selections for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival and the 2026 Grand National to catch some tasty early prices. Also This is my final article for this week, but I’ll be back with more betting tips for you next week - so make sure you come back soon!
Betting advice
- 17:25 Southwell -
Alligator Alley
@ 7/1 (3 places) -
0.5pt each way
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Alligator Alley can snap up a win here!
Alligator Alley clearly seems to love the Southwell track, which is just one of the many reasons I believe he can run a massive race today.
Let’s take a look at the rest…
Alligator Alley has a fantastic record over this C&D
Alligator Alley has contested over this C&D on five occasions now, and he has recorded two wins and two places to date. His exact C&D record reads 31143, so even on his only finish outside of the first three, he still managed to place fourth. Those four runs were back in 2022 and 2023 but he was running off much higher marks of 92, 92, 100 and 95.
His latest C&D run was last month, off a 1lb lower mark, and he finished third, beaten just half a length. He was closing on the leaders at the finish and that form has also worked out pretty well. His rivals from that race have run eight times collectively, recording two wins and four places from those runs.
Off 1lb lower than his last winning mark, he’s handicapped to win again
His latest win was at Thirsk in August 2024 and that came off a mark of 79. Racing today off a mark of 78, he’s certainly handicapped to be extremely competitive.
Since that latest win, he has also placed off marks of 82 and 77, further confirming that he is dangerously treated off this mark.
At his peak, he was actually rated as high as 106 and whilst he’s not the horse he once was, his current mark reflects that and he’s still very capable at the level he tackles nowadays.
He made all for his latest win and this track favours front runners!
In his latest win at Thirsk, he made all - leading from the start of the race, and never being passed.
That type of running style is favoured over this 5f trip at Southwell with the statistics showing there is a clear bias towards front runners.
On his latest run, he was ridden in behind the leaders and denied a clear run. Had he been given one, he would have finished much closer.
Hopefully that frustration will see him race more aggressively today. If they race him prominently, I feel he has a superb chance of at least being in the places.
Can Alligator Alley record his ninth career win?
When you consider his current mark and his excellent record here, he must have a fantastic chance of running a huge race.
Then if you factor in the front runner bias at this track, his chances would only increase under an aggressive ride where he’s ridden prominently, so I hope they opt for those tactics!
His best run this campaign to date was his C&D third under Luke Morris, so it’s great to see Luke return to the saddle for today’s race. Luke wouldn’t be everyone’s cup of tea with his exaggerated style, but I like him - he certainly rides them, and he won’t be beaten for a lack of effort in the saddle.
Given he is eight years-old now, he’s not the horse he once was and as I’m gambling on the tactics that they opt for, I’m limiting this bet to half stakes. However, I certainly feel that he has a better chance than his odds of 7/1 suggest, making him a worthy bet today in my eyes.
With a good break and a positive ride, I think he can land win number nine of his career.
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