
In today’s article I have tackled the feature race of the day - The Sprint Cup Stakes at Haydock. I think my selection has been completely overlooked in the market due to his latest run but you can draw a line through that. If you judge him on his penultimate start, he has every chance today!
Are you new around here? If so, I’m RacingGav and I’m the resident horse racing tipster here at Betting.co.uk. You will find me writing four articles per week and these are a mixture of content. Predominately it will be daily betting tips but I also cover antepost tips, guides and big race trends to name a few.
If antepost tips interest you, I already have a few live on the website which are well worth checking out. These consist of the St Leger, Irish Champion Stakes, Cesarewitch Handicap, King George VI Chase, Cheltenham Festival and Aintree Grand National.
At the time of writing, bet365 has the best price available for Big Mojo at 12/1, plus they are offering four places for this race. The value doesn’t stop there either. New customers who bet £10, will get £30 in free bets. Be sure to take a look!
Recency bias is a huge element in betting, and I’m always keen to see past it as a result. I think Big Mojo is a big price purely as a result of his last run and in this article, I’ll break down the reasons for why I think that is the case.
Back in July at Newmarket, Big Mojo ran a huge race in the July Cup Stakes to finish a neck second. He ran on to lead narrowly inside the final furlong but he was agonisingly headed inside the final 110yds by No Half Measures.
The front pair pulled a couple of lengths clear of the field that day and Big Mojo produced a RPR of 120. A replication of that level of performance would have seen him win three of the last four renewals of this race as the winners produced RPRs of 119, 118 and 119. It also would have seen him win the 2015 renewal and finish right there with the winner in 2016, 2018 and 2019.
As a three-year-old with just ten runs under his belt, there is no reason to think he couldn’t even progress on to exceed that July Cup Stakes run. We know he has the ability, I just hope he puts his best foot forward and shows it once again.
I believe that if they came straight from the narrow defeat in the July Cup Stakes to this race, Big Mojo would be right towards the top of the market here. He’d certainly be a single figure price at the very least.
However, there was talk of him dropping back to 5f as the owner wanted to win the Nunthrope. As a result, he ended up running in the King George Qatar Stakes at Glorious Goodwood over the minimum trip. Whilst he ran a respectable race that day to finish fifth, beaten just two lengths, he was outpaced over 1f out and it just showed he should stick to 6f races.
Thankfully they seem to have seen sense after that and have now reverted back to 6f here rather than running in the Nunthrope, which I am glad to see. The plus side to that run the last day is that he’s 12/1 for us today and I genuinely do believe that is nothing more than recency bias. The fifth next to his name is less sexy than the second in the July Cup Stakes, despite the fact it was over the wrong trip.
Tom Marquand has ridden Big Mojo the last twice, but he has to ride the William Haggas horse here, so Big Mojo needed a new jockey. The fact that Michael Appleby has got William Buick, along with the fact that William Buick has accepted the ride, shows that both are confident in Big Mojo’s chances today.
It is also worth noting that Buick has a strong record for the stable. In the last five years, he is 6 from 27 (22%) for them with 15 out of 27 (56%) finishing in the first four. Interestingly, Buick also has a very strong record at Haydock this year, 7 from 20 (35%) with 16 out of 20 (80%) finishing in the first four places. If you backed all of his rides here this season to a £1 level stake, you would have generated a profit of +£10.67.
This is no fluke season either. In fact, if you stretch the period back to being the last five years, the record improves even more. Over the past five years at Haydock, he is 33 from 100 (33%) with a massive 73 out of 100 (73%) in the first four. The £1 level stakes profit for this period increases to a very impressive +£24.20!
I’m under no illusion that this is a tough seventeen-runner Group 1, so it won’t be easy to win. As with any 5f sprint, you will also need a good chunk of luck in running, as well as having the ability to win. Therefore, I’m not getting carried away with Big Mojo’s chances here. It all depends on whether he can bounce back to the form he showed in the July Cup Stakes now that he returns to 6f. Personally, I see no reason why he can’t, and he couldn’t have a better jockey on board given William Buick’s record here.
I do have a slight reservation over the ground, as quicker is better for Big Mojo. The official going is currently described as Good, but I certainly wouldn’t want it any softer, and given there is Good to Soft in places on the round course, I fear it could be on the softer side of Good. The dry forecast helps to alleviate some of that concern, so I hope it’s right and the ground dries up further if anything.
Considering all of the elements, I feel that Big Mojo is overpriced at the current 12/1 available and he is well worth a bet at that price. I personally see no reason he’s not priced up similar to Time For Sandals around the 7/1 mark. However, given the type of race and the luck required to win it, combined with the fact he needs to bounce back to his best, it’s just half stakes for me today.
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