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Ginger Joe - Betting Tips for Saturday 7 December 2024

Ginger Joe

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Expert Punter

Publish Date: 06/12/2024

Fact checked by: James Leeland

Key Points

Will L’Eau Du Sud prove too good for the Irish challengers?
Willmount returns to action after a long break
Could Quilixios serve it up to Jonbon in the Tingle Creek?

Three hot betting tips for Tingle Creek day at Sandown

What a day of racing we have coming from Sandown on Saturday. I have looked closely at three of the biggest races and have nailed down a selection for each of them. We start off with the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase where L’Eau Du Sud is looking to enhance his Arkle hopes. This renewal is sure to be an exciting one, especially with two interesting Irish challengers in the mix.

Following this we have a decent Handicap Hurdle, which looks to me like it will end up in a straight battle between two horses who look very well handicapped. Paul Nicholls runs Kabral Du Mathan, who looks nicely progressive, but does he have enough to beat the class angle that Willmount brings to this race? This is something I’ll be discussing in my race review.

Of course, the highlight of the day is the Grade 1 Tingle Creek. In this year’s renewal we will see current Champion Chase favourite Jonbon really put to the test, due to the arrival of Quilixios. Henry De Bromhead’s charge looks like a really classy horse, and cannot be underestimated. This really is one of those races that you don’t want to miss.

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13:50 - Henry VIII Novices Chase (Grade 1) 2m - L’Eau Du Sud (NAP)

We begin with the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase and there has been a good deal of uncertainty about who would line up here. As it stands, the two Gordon Elliott representatives, Touch Me Not and Down Memory Lane, have both been declared to run, which changes the dynamics of this race entirely.

For reference, Touch Me Not put in one of the best jumping performances you will ever see from a Novice Chaser when he beat Farren Glory by six lengths last time out at Punchestown. He is a horse that is surely destined for big things. Meanwhile, his stablemate, Down Memory Lane, took a massive step forward when he was switched to fences, and he has a fair amount of ability too. However, I think he lacks the turn of foot that will be needed to win here.

Now, despite a lot of shrewd punters putting up Touch Me Not as the horse who is most open to improvement, I still think L’Eau Du Sud has the edge. He has been absolutely electric over his fences, but most importantly, he has more than enough finishing speed too, and that for me is the defining factor that will see him cross the line in front. I’m not suggesting that the Gordon Elliott pair should be underestimated, but I firmly believe that L’Eau Du Sud takes all the beating here.

14:25 - Betfair Handicap Hurdle 2m - Willmount

We move on to the Betfair Handicap Hurdle next and another classy lineup. Nemean Lion heads the weights, and undeniably has the best form in this field. My main concerns are that he is coming here straight off a 240-day break, but also giving weight away to some nice improvers. That said, he is well known for performing well when fresh, but it won’t be an easy task for him. He has potential as an each way bet, but I don’t think he is our winner here. Kabral Du Mathan remains unbeaten in his three starts for Paul Nicholls. To be fair, his mark of 131 probably underestimates his ability, so I can understand why he is the current favourite here, but he isn’t the one for me.

I strongly believe that the best horse in this race is Nicky Henderson's Willmount, who has a huge reputation to live up to. He was bought for 400k after winning his sole point-to-point start, and then went unbeaten in his first three starts under Rules. He had easy victories in both of his Bumper starts, and also won by a substantial margin on his Hurdles debut, at which point he was being considered for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

He went off as the short-odds favourite to win the Challow at Newbury last December, but sadly he was pulled up three fences out and that was the last time we saw him. Although that might sound a cause for concern, I don’t think Nicky Henderson would even consider sending him here if he wasn’t 100% right. Frankly, his mark of 130 is very lenient indeed, he has a huge engine and I don’t see any other horse in this field that is likely to prevent Willmount from winning this race.

15:00 - The Betfair Tingle Creek (Grade 1) 2m - Jonbon

The highlight of the day at Newbury is the Grade 1 Tingle Creek, where Jonbon is primed to make it back-to-back wins. Initially it looked like this race would be a breeze for him, with the usual British stalwarts like Boothill and Edwardstone taking their rightful places in the lineup. However, the addition of the Henry De Bromhead-trained Quilixios has certainly shaken things up a bit for this year’s renewal.

Quixilios took to fences really well on his first start of the season and beat Marine Nationale very convincingly at Naas in November. In fairness he is likely to improve again, and he is most definitely Jonbon’s biggest threat. I wouldn’t be surprised if this ends up in a battle up the home straight between this pair, but there is another important factor to consider here. Quixilios has never raced at Sandown, whereas Jonbon is four from four on this track.

I wouldn’t go underestimating Henry De Bromhead’s charge, but Jonbon absolutely loves it at Sandown. He seems to perform at his best here, and if that is the case again this weekend, then he should be able to beat Quilixios. Personally, I think that Jonbon will edge this, and continue on his way to the Champion Chase in March, but whatever happens, this is a race you need to watch.