Key Points
- Today’s betting tip finally gets his ideal ground conditions
- This horse is now back down to his last winning mark
- With juice in the ground, he could be drawn in exactly the right place
The horse I’ve selected as today’s betting tip runs at Chepstow in a Class 4 (0-78) Handicap over 7f. I think he looks an excellent each way bet, and he has a superb chance of finishing in the places. Plus, he is more than capable of winning this race off his current mark.
If you are new to my articles, I usually post four betting tips here each week, but sometimes I change it up with content looking at big race trends or antepost picks. By the way, don’t forget to check out my antepost selections for the imminent renewal of the Northumberland Plate, the 2026 Cheltenham Festival and the 2026 Grand National, to catch some tasty early prices. Lastly, this is my final article for this week, but I’ll be back with more betting tips for you next week, so make sure you come back soon!
Betting advice
- 19:00 Chepstow -
Ray Vonn
@ 10/1 (3 places) -
0.5pt each way
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At a double figure price, I think Ray Vonn is good value as an each way bet. I like his chances at Chepstow today for many reasons and in this article, I’ll break those down for you.
Ray Vonn finally gets his ideal ground conditions today
The ideal conditions for Ray Vonn are a straight 6f with juice in the ground. He was withdrawn twice last season due to unsuitable ground, when the going was Good to Firm, and Good respectively.
He was off the track for 236 days before returning last month, and was forced to return on the AW with no suitable ground on the Turf. He was then due to run at York last week but again, he was withdrawn due to the official going description of Good.
The rain has finally come now and we have Good to Soft ground at Chepstow today, with further showers forecast. His latest win came at York on Good to Soft ground and I think he can bounce back to form with these conditions.
He’s back down to his last winning mark now
Ray Vonn’s latest win at York came in July last year, off a mark of 72. That was a big field of 18 runners and he broke through to lead inside the final 110 yards and kept on well to secure the win.
He was only raised 3lb for that win, and he has now dropped back down to that last winning mark of 72. We know he is capable of winning off this mark and hopefully he can go in again here.
As touched upon in the prior section, I feel 6f is his optimum. However, he is another year older, and he may enjoy the extra furlong more now than he has to date. He’s never been a complete non-stayer at the trip, it has just overstretched him.
With juice in the the ground, a low draw could be the place to be
At Chepstow, the races up to and including 1m are run on the straight course. High draws are favoured on this course, with runners coming across to the near side rail. However, if you dig into the statistics for fields of seven, eight and nine on Good to Soft, or Soft ground, the data favours a low draw and interestingly, the lower the better (with the exception of Stall 2).
Therefore, Stall 1 might be the ideal draw to be in these conditions. The data indicates that the expected number of wins for each draw is 5.6. However, the number of wins from Stall 1, in these conditions, is 10, which signifies a strong bias.
Chepstow is also a stamina sapping track, even more so when the ground is on the softer side. So I think this task could suit a horse like Ray Vonn,who likes to be quietly dropped in before coming with a strong late challenge.
Can Ray Vonn return to winning ways?
When you consider that he is getting his favoured ground conditions, he races off his last winning mark and he is statistically in the best draw, I think Ray Vonn has a far better chance than his 10/1 price suggests.
That said, I do have a niggling concern that he may be better at 6f rather than 7f. Despite that, the fact they’re prepared to race him here over 7f gives me hope, as does the fact he is another year older now.
It could turn out that they are just chancing their arm over 7f to get him out while they can. However, based on my concerns over the trip, I’m only prepared to play half stakes here.
But even with that slight question mark, I think Ray Vonn will outrun his odds. With the required luck he should run into the places at least, and I’m hoping he can do even better and return to winning ways.
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