Key Points
- My betting tip for today was not suited by how his race was run
- The form of his run at Ffos Las has been franked by the winner and the third
- This unexposed six-year-old should have plenty more to come
We had a great start to the week with Lord Erskine winning for us on Tuesday at 12/1! It was a shame there was a 30p Rule 4, but it was still a lovely return nonetheless. Today’s bet comes from back over this side of the water and also over the jumps as he runs in the 2m 7f Handicap Hurdle at Worcester.
If you’re reading my articles for the first time today, I post four betting tips most weeks, but you’ll sometimes find other types of content too, including guides, big race trends and antepost picks. Speaking of antepost selections, I already have some posted for the 2025 St Leger, 2026 Cheltenham Festival and the 2026 Aintree Grand National, so go and get on at those early prices! I’ll also have more betting tips for you tomorrow and Saturday too, so make sure you check back in then.
Betting advice
- 19:50 Worcester -
The Flying Poet
@ 5/1 (4 places) -
0.5pt each way
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The Flying Poet can fly home late to win!
I think The Flying Poet is better than he has shown to date, and I believe we’ll finally see his true colours today. If this race goes to plan, I think he’ll be played late by Sean Bowen and win with a flourish. In the next parts of this article, I’ll explain my reasoning.
The Flying Poet was not suited by the race tactics last time out
Last time out The Flying Poet raced up at Perth over 3m. He was well supported into 9/5F, and Sean Bowen dropped him in at the rear of the field early on. In hindsight, this was the wrong decision, as there was very little pace in that race and they went a very sedate gallop as a result.
With a slow pace, it was inevitable it would end in a sprint finish, it’s always difficult to make up ground from behind. The frantic finish at Perth also saw The Flying Poet jump awkwardly three out and ten hit the next one, which only exacerbated the issues of coming from behind. He stayed on during the run-in, but the damage was already done, and he could only manage fifth place. I believe he is a better horse than he was able to show that day.
If you look at his run prior to Perth, he ran at Ffos Las over 2m 4f. He came second there, splitting two horses called Doc McCoy and Sassified. I find it particularly notable that the horses who finished either side of him that day, both won their next races, thus franking the form.
In addition, both went on to gain second places next time out, despite running off higher marks, with Sassified only being denied by a neck when looking ready to win. Again, those achievements solidify the strength of the form, and reflect the level of ability that The Flying Poet possesses. It is also worth noting that the race at Ffos Las was run over an inadequate 2m 4f trip as well.
The Flying Poet is an unexposed six-year-old who should have plenty more to come
While many of the horses in today’s race have been around the block and are fully exposed, The Flying Poet is only a six-year-old and he has only had five runs in his career to date. As a result, he is very unexposed, and has the potential to unlock plenty more improvement, when compared to a number of his rivals today. If you look at the opposition, only the five-year-old Getaways Gift is younger than him, but she has also had more career starts to date.
I think a staying trip like this is what The Flying Poet needs, and I simply don’t feel that the race was run to suit him last time out. With a more honest gallop today, I think he can show his true colours and improve significantly, and be extremely competitive off his current mark of 97, especially with Champion Jockey, Sean Bowen, in the saddle again. Sean doesn’t make many mistakes and I’m sure if the pace is a slow one again today, he’ll be more proactive and get involved earlier to counter that.
Can The Flying Poet win at his sixth attempt under rules?
When you consider all of the above points, I think The Flying Poet has an exceptional chance of breaking his maiden today under the Champion Jockey. For a big galloping type like him, I also think that a track like Worcester will play to his strengths and that only makes me sweeter on his chances. I also like a big field of 12 for him, as it should allow Sean to find plenty of cover, before working him into the race for a big late challenge.
However, there are a couple of negatives. While the race wasn’t run to suit last time, he did let himself down with his jumping at the business end, and he needs to have learned from that. I’m also quite concerned that there isn’t a great deal in the shape of pace angles in this race today and I’m fearful that something similar could happen again.
That said, Ballyvaughan Bay should take them along and hopefully, with eleven more behind him, something will take him on for the lead and ensure it’s an honest tempo. As touched upon earlier, if it isn’t an honest gallop again, I hope Sean is ready to take action this time.
With all of the positives, he is a bet for me today nonetheless. However, given the negatives, I am limiting to half stakes for this one. Hopefully we get a truly run race and this test of stamina enables us to see the best version of The Flying Poet, which I’m certain is yet to come.
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