Key Points
- Today’s betting tip is very consistent and deserves to get his head in front
- He’s well handicapped and has dropped to 2lb below his last winning mark
- He has run well in a tongue tie and visor previously and it’s retained here
My first article for this week is a betting tip and I have a selection from across the Irish Sea for you. He’s a horse that we’ve backed before and he looks to have an outstanding chance in today’s race at the Curragh.
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Betting advice
- 15:35 Curragh -
Coeur d’Or
@17/2 (3 places) -
0.5pt each way
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A step up in trip could be the answer
I’m a huge fan of Coeur d’Or and I’m hoping he can break his losing spell today. Considering how well he has been running, it’s amazing he hasn’t already managed to get his head in front! In this article, I’ll explain why I think things will change today and hopefully you’ll agree with my logic.
Coeur d’Or is very consistent and deserves to get his head in front
It really is quite remarkable that Coeur d’Or is on such a long losing run, which dates all the way back to 26 August 2023. However, whilst most horses in this position are regressing and running badly, Coeur d’Or has been consistently running very well!
With Handicaps, they are either running badly and coming down the system, or running well and going up it. However, some horses get stuck in the middle where they keep running well enough that the handicapper is reluctant to drop them, but not quite well enough to win and go up in the handicap. As a result, they can find themselves in a bit of a no man's land.
Rather unbelievably Coeur d’Or is on a losing run of 12 races and despite that, he only finds himself 2lb below his last winning mark. For his win he was raised 3lb from 97 to 100 and his next eight runs all came off the same mark of 100. Only now in the last five runs has the handicapper started to ease off a little and in this time, he’s come down 5lb.
Coeur d’Or is well handicapped and has dropped to 2lb below his last winning mark
With that easing from 100 to 95 over the last five runs, Coeur d’Or now sits 2lb below his last winning mark and that gives him every chance of getting his head back in front. Especially now that his connections step him up in trip to 1m 2f.
Two runs back Coeur d’Or ran here at the Curragh over 1m in the Irish Cambridgeshire and he ran a cracker to finish four, beaten just a length at the line. It is also worth noting that the race was run to favour those racing prominently and he fared best of those racing deeper in the field, so that run can be marked up. He was gaining on the front three all the way to the line and if the line was further away, I feel he would have reeled them in. Today he now gets that chance with an extra two furlongs to run.
Interestingly, last time out, he was stepped up to 1m 1.5f at Punchestown and looked the winner with 1f to run. However, sadly a smart looking three-year-old swooped late to deny him after he came out on top from a protracted battle with the favourite. This time, the winning margin was an even shorter three quarters of a length. There could have been no real complaints if the handicapper pushed his mark back up but he’s kindly given him a chance by leaving it unaltered on 95.
Coeur d’Or has run in a tongue tie and visor combination previously and it’s retained here
As already covered, Coeur d’Or has run very well the last two times. Those two runs coincide with his usual tongue tie being joined by a visor. It was applied for the first time in the Irish Cambridgeshire and it was retained the last day too. They keep it on for a third time here and hopefully it’ll be a case of third time lucky for Coeur d’Or.
In his last ten runs, Coeur d’Or has produced the following RPRs - 102, 103,
94, 104, 106, 104, 102,
85, 101 and 99. Ignoring the two bolded runs, which were below par, he’s been very consistent with his RPRs ranging from 99 to 106. The average across those eight runs comes out at 102.625 or let’s say 103 with it rounded to the nearest whole number. If he could run to that average of 103 off this mark of 95, he would have a huge chance of winning and if he could run to the top end of 106, I think he would be very hard to beat.
Can Coeur d’Or break his long losing run?
I have huge faith in Coeur d’Or breaking his long losing run here. He’s been very consistent, he’s running very well in the visor, this 1m 2f should be ideal, he loves it here at the Curragh and he’s handicapped to strike off his current mark of 95.
On the downside, it does look like another weak pace on paper here. That said, it’s less concerning at 1m 2f than it would be at 1m. The other concerning factor is the long losing run itself. How much will it be playing on his mind and subsequently knocking his confidence, he surely felt he had done enough the last day before being nabbed late on. With races not run to suit, him finding trouble in running or other factors denying him his win - Will he just find a way not to win again?
All elements considered, I feel he’s worth an each way play at the price of 17/2. However, given the lengthy losing run, I’m only prepared to play half stakes. I really do hope though that he can get this monkey off his back and that it’s third time lucky in the visor!
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