Key Points
- Today’s betting tip is a C&D winner and course form is very important at Southwell
- He has dropped to 3lb below his last winning mark, so he’s very well handicapped
- This is a horse that’s better on the AW, and he has an excellent jockey booked for today
It’s Thursday! Which means the return of Racing League action for races 36 through to 42. We have enjoyed great success in these Racing League events thus far, and I’m looking to continue that today. I have found one that I feel is highly underestimated at a double figure price, and hopefully he can prove me correct with a big performance.
If this is your first time reading my articles, I’m the resident horse racing tipster here at Betting.co.uk. As a general rule, I publish four articles per week outside of the big meetings. The majority of these will be daily tips like today’s article. However, I will also produce other types of content such as guides, big race trends and antepost tips.
If the latter interests you, I already have some live on the website, so make sure that you check them out. These include the St Leger next month,
the Cesarewitch Handicap in October, the King George VI Chase in December and also very early selections for the Cheltenham Festival and Aintree Grand National in 2026.
Betting advice
- 17:45 Southwell -
Sugarloaf Lenny
@ 12/1 (4 places) -
0.75pt each way
bet365 are the best value for today’s betting tip
At the time of writing, bet365 is offering the best price for Sugarloaf Lenny at 12/1. In addition to this, they are offering four places, which not all of the bookmakers are doing. But the cherry on top of the cake is the great sign up offer for new customers. If you
bet £10, you’ll get £30 in free bets. It’s well worth considering if you don’t already have an account with bet365!
Sugarloaf Lenny has his ideal conditions today
When I was looking at the various elements that I would consider for a bet, it was tick after tick in the right boxes for Sugarloaf Lenny. I think he has a great chance in this race, and is underestimated by the bookmakers at a price of 12/1. In this article, I’ll explain why I’m backing him, so make sure you read on to the end.
In my opinion, C&D form is important at Southwell and therefore it’s a huge plus that Sugarloaf Lenny is a C&D winner. In fact, he has a 100% record over this C&D with a win from his last run here in November 2024.
Sugarloaf Lenny has also landed a lovely draw in stall one, so he should have no excuses when it comes to obtaining a strong position early on in the race. Southwell was once a track where it paid to be prominent, and ridden aggressively, but since the switch to the Tapeta surface in 2021, it has become much fairer. Now, you need a horse that’s a strong stayer, so it can often pay off to sit deeper in the field, which should suit Sugarloaf Lenny’s style perfectly.
This horse has dropped to 3lb below his last winning mark, so he’s very well handicapped
As always with Handicap races, the question is whether your horse is handicapped well enough to win. Sugarloaf Lenny sits 3lb below his last winning mark. His latest win came back in November 2024 over C&D, off a mark of 73, and he is racing off a mark of 70 this evening.
If you look further back in his record, he has won off a mark of 71 previously. He has also recorded a second place (beaten by less than a length) off that same mark. Therefore, a mark of 70 is certainly a level he can perform well at, presuming he puts his best foot forward tonight.
Another thing I find particularly interesting is that he is a better horse on the AW (which I’ll discuss in the next section) and six of his seven runs during this campaign have been on the Turf. I’d say it’s no coincidence that trainer William Knight has campaigned Sugarloaf Lenny entirely on the Turf, and then the horse turns up on the AW well handicapped in a valuable race!
I also note that he bounced back from a poor run on his penultimate start, yet showed a much better effort last time out, which coincided with his cheekpieces being applied again. The cheekpieces are retained today, which is good to see.
Sugarloaf Lenny is a better horse on the AW and he has an excellent jockey booking
When you compare Sugarloaf Lenny’s All Weather form to his Turf form, he seems to perform better on the AW. If you judge him on his career best RPRs, he has produced 80 on the All Weather, while only producing 76 on the Turf. In fact, his top three performances have all come on the All Weather with RPRs of 80, 79 and 77, all exceeding his best Turf effort.
Alternatively, if you go off of his strike rate, he has three wins and two places from nine runs on the All Weather, which is a win rate of 33.3%, and a place rate of 56%. However, his figures on the Turf are significantly lower, where he has recorded just one win and three places from 14 runs. That is a win rate of just 7%, and a place rate of only 21%, so the stats alone speak volumes.
I also find Paul Mulrennan’s jockey booking very interesting here. He’s not a jockey who would often ride for William Knight, in fact, he’s only had two previous rides for the trainer. However, Paul Mulrennan has recorded five from 29 (17.2%) at Southwell this season, producing a profit of +£5.67 at £1 level stakes. If you look back over the last five years, the jockey’s strike rate decreases to 12.4%, but his £1 level stake profit increases to +£14.74.
And here’s a fun fact for you - Paul Mulrennan actually rode his first winner at Southwell, a horse called Perchancer, for Pat Haslam, way back on 9 April 2001 - 8,907 days ago, to be precise!
Can Sugarloaf Lenny maintain his 100% record over C&D?
When you consider all of the elements, I think Sugarloaf Lenny has a great chance of getting his second win over C&D today. I certainly think he has a far better chance than his 12/1 price suggests anyway. He is already a C&D winner, sitting 3lb below his last winning mark. He is drawn well and has a jockey with a great record at the track booked to ride him.
This horse has been campaigned solely on Turf, but now switches to the AW, where he is clearly a better horse. I really liked his run the last time at Brighton, and if it was not for encountering traffic issues when trying to make his challenge, he may well have won, and was only beaten by a length at the line. He now comes here off an unchanged mark, which I think looks generous. The cheekpieces Sugarloaf Lenny wore at Brighton are retained, which is another plus point. Also, he tends to race off the pace, and needs a good gallop to aim for, which should be provided by Spirit Of Jura (his Racing League teammate), Antelope and potentially Always A Star.
In terms of negatives, I don’t think there are a great deal. Sugarloaf Lenny’s C&D record is just the one run, so we are working off a small sample size, rather than seeing him prove himself here multiple times, but that’s not his fault. Although he will get to run the shortest route around the rail from stall one, it can also mean that he will be reliant on some luck in-running.
It can also pay to challenge more down the centre of the track than up the rail at Southwell, so Paul may decide to move off that rail at the business end. Arguably the biggest concern for me is that his record in Class 4 company currently reads 0/8, so he must prove he can win at this level. That said, only two out of eight of his runs have been on the AW, only one of those was in a Handicap, and that was over a trip of 1m 6f when he doesn’t stay that far.
As there are some niggling concerns, I’m trimming the stake down to 0.75pt each way. I feel he is well worth that much, and it will be interesting to see if any money comes for him, as I certainly don’t feel he is a 12/1 shot over this C&D, especially off his current mark.
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They enjoyed a very profitable start to August with a treble landing on the very first day of the month at prices of
9/1 (12/1), 7/1 and 5/1!
Since then they have enjoyed further August winners at
13/2, 9/1, 10/1, 3/1, 6/1, 7/1, 12/1, 18/1, 18/1, 16/1, 11/1, 10/1 and 28/1
and are currently sitting on
+45.554pts
for August to date!
This follows on nicely from July, which ended with a profit of
+29.239pts!
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