Key Points
- Today’s betting tip is getting older now but he doesn’t show it on the track!
- He won over Jumps last time out and he looks handicapped to strike again
- Connections have been rain dancing for him and it has finally come to fruition!
It’s a new week and I have a fresh bunch of betting tips for you! For today’s race, we head across the Irish Sea to Killarney, where the horse that caught my eye at a double figure price runs in the 2m 1f handicap. Despite his rising years, there is life in the old boy yet and I think he can land another career victory.
As a rule, I produce four articles each week for betting.co.uk and like this one you are reading, they are usually betting tips for the day’s action. However, the content does vary considerably and I will also produce other types of articles such as guides, big race trends and antepost selections. At present, I have antepost selections up for the 2025 St Leger, 2026 Cheltenham Festival and 2026 Grand National, so be sure you check them out to take advantage of the early prices. For the week ahead,, I’ll be producing content today, Thursday, Friday and Saturday, so make sure you check back in for those!
Betting advice
- 19:45 Killarney -
Lord Erskine
@ 12/1 (3 places) -
0.5pt each way
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Lord Erskine won for me at Fairyhouse - I think he can win again!
Back in April, Lord Erskine was a 22/1 outsider for a Listed Handicap Hurdle at Fairyhouse and while the public didn’t have faith in him, I did! I tipped him and he did me proud by coming out on top at a beautiful price. I think he has been underestimated again at a double figure price and I’m going to take advantage of it. In this article, I’ll break down my reasoning.
Lord Erskine is getting older now but he doesn’t show it on the track!
Now I am well aware that Lord Erskine is 12 years old now, which for racehorses is well into the veteran stage. However, with a third at Galway, and a second at Listowel, he showed there was life in the old boy yet. He built further on that this season, with an impressive fourth at Leopardstown in March before winning in Listed company at Fairyhouse over Easter.
Arguably that win at Fairyhouse was a career best effort, despite his age, and that being his 69th start under rules! It’s certainly his best to date judged on RPRs at least, with a rating of 131 awarded for it. Considering he would have likely preferred the ground even softer than the Yielding to Soft he faced that day, it could even be marked up further.
Lord Erskine won over Jumps and he looks handicapped to strike again on the Flat
Whilst that Fairyhouse win and four of his other wins have come over Jumps, he has actually been in front at the line more times on the Flat with seven victories recorded to date.
These victories have come off marks of 54, 67, 77, 68, 70, 76 and 79. Interestingly, he has now dropped back down to his last winning mark on the Flat of 79, so if he’s at his best, he is on a mark where he can strike.
With that latest win off 79 came in September 2023, combined with the fact he is 12 now, you would normally steer clear. However, his Fairyhouse performance last time out over Jumps showed that he’s in fine fettle and retains all of his ability.
They have been rain dancing for Lord Erskine and it’s finally come to fruition!
The key to Lord Erskine is juice in the ground! On the Flat his seven career wins have come on Soft x 3, Heavy x 2, Yielding x 1 and Soft to Heavy x 1. Over the Jumps his five career wins have come on Soft x 3, Good to Yielding x 1 and Yielding to Soft x 1. Therefore, all of his wins across both codes have come with some juice in the ground, and the majority when it’s properly soft.
Connections clearly know him by now and understand what he wants ground-wise, as he has been a non-runner on the last four occasions that he was declared. With the exception of one omission due to having a temperature, the rest have all been missed due to unsuitable ground when the going was Good. So his yard was clearly happy to bide their time until they got his ideal conditions.
The going at Killarney is Yielding to Soft, with showers forecast. I’d be happy with him on Yielding to Soft, as that’s the same ground that he won on at Fairyhouse. However, for Lord Erskine and his connections it is simply a case of the more the merrier when it comes to rain, as he’ll love the ground if it goes properly soft.
Can Lord Erskine defy his rising age once again?
Now I’m under no illusion that backing veteran horses long term, in the hope they show their best, will land you in the poor house. However, I feel it’s different with Lord Erskine. We are not looking at a horse who is regressing, hoping he will suddenly rediscover his old form. Lord Erskine arguably produced a career best (albeit over Hurdles) on his latest run in April.
When you combine the great order he appears to be in along with the fact that he has fallen to his last winning mark, he’s a winner at this distance on the Flat and he’s likely to get his ideal ground conditions, I really do believe they’re sleeping on him here at the current price of 12/1 and it has to be taken. At the same time, I do appreciate he’s getting older now and he’s not won on the Flat since September 2023. Also, with any weather forecast, the showers could simply not come to fruition, and if that happened along with the ground drying out, he could have unsuitable ground once again.
With these concerns and some realism, I’m cutting the bey down to half stakes. However, I do feel he is well worth that bet at 12/1, and he could make his price look silly once again. If the rain comes, and comes by the bucket load, I’d not be surprised if his price contracted considerably!
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