Key Points
- My betting tip today is now below his last winning mark
- He is unbeaten in Class 4 Handicap Hurdles
- His overall record in Class 4 company is exceptional
Saturday’s abandoned action from Fairyhouse has been rearranged for today, but my betting tip runs at Hereford. Whilst it is always nice to hit winners at the big meetings, the odds determine what the winners pay, not the location of where they win! There is one who is too eye-catching to ignore over at Hereford, so that is where we head!
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Betting advice
- 19:13 Hereford -
Tapley
@ 7/1 (3 places) -
0.75pt each way
Back Tapley with the Betfair Sportsbook!
Whilst 15/2 and 8/1 are available for Tapley with some bookmakers, and one is offering four places, I feel the best place to bet is with the Betfair Sportsbook who are offering 7/1, with three places. If you don't already have an account with them, they have a fantastic new customer sign up offer too. If you
bet £10, you’ll get £50 in free multiple bets, which more than makes up for the slightly shorter price in terms of value.
Tapley can bounce back to winning ways today!
There are a few keys to success with Tapley and this race at Hereford looks to tick all of the boxes. When you combine that with other factors such as his current handicap mark and the 7lb claimer brought in to ride him today, I think he has an exceptional chance.
In this article, I’ll be breaking down my reasons for backing Tapley today, so you’ll see exactly where I’m coming from on it.
Tapley has fallen below his last winning mark!
Today’s selection - Tapley, won back in October 2024 at Plumpton off a handicap mark of 120. He has run seven times since that victory and those runs have resulted in his handicap mark dropping all the way down from 126 to 119, which now leaves him 1lb below his last winning mark.
At Plumpton, he was ridden by Gavin Sheehan who is a professional jockey. However, at Hereford today, he’ll be ridden by conditional jockey - Elizabeth Gale and she is able to claim 7lb. Therefore, Tapley effectively runs off a mark of just 112 and that makes him extremely dangerous. Now, there is a reason why Elizabeth Gale is able to claim that 7lb. Basically, it reflects her inexperience, and the number of winners that she has ridden. However, she knows Tapley very well having ridden him 11 times previously, resulting in two wins and four places.
Tapley has never been beaten when running in Class 4 Handicap Hurdles
As a result of Tapley’s ability level and usual handicap marks, he often finds himself competing in hot Class 2 or Class 3 Handicaps. Whilst he has placed at Class 2 level, as well as winning and being placed in Class 3s, he often finds them a little too competitive for him.
However, on two of the occasions where he has dropped down into Class 4 Handicaps he has come out victorious. At Kempton in November 2023, he won off a mark of 110, and as mentioned, in October 2024, he won off a mark of 120 under Gavin Sheehan. As a result, he must be strongly respected in this company.
His overall record in Class 4 company is exceptional
Whilst Tapley is two from two in Class 4 Handicap company, his overall Class 4 record commands respect. He has raced at this level on six occasions with three wins and two places recorded.
Many punters often undervalue the importance of race classes, but it really should be at the forefront of your mind when looking at potential bets. There is a huge difference in Tapley’s last race, where he faced Fiercely Proud rated 137, and a race like today’s where the opposition rate as lowly as Virtual Hug at just 101.
It’s like a football player going from playing in the Championship to playing at a League Two club, it’s a completely different scenario. You can go from looking poor to looking like a superstar, and it’s all about who is around you. Sometimes it’s better to be the big fish in a little pond, rather than the little fish in a big pond!
Can Tapley make it 3/3 in Class 4 Handicaps?
With all facts considered, I think Tapley has an outstanding chance today. He’s been competing in much stronger races, so he’ll find it much easier in these calmer waters. His four wins over Hurdles have all come on Good or Good to Soft ground, over the minimum trip of 2m, and those are the conditions that he gets today. In addition, Elizabeth Gale takes a very handy 7lb off his back, which effectively sees him rated 112.
This is a huge help as rather than carrying top weight of 12st, he’ll carry a much more manageable 11st 7lb. A 7lb claimer can sometimes be a worry, but Elizabeth knows this horse very well, having ridden him 11 times to date and her two wins aboard him provide plenty of reassurance. It’s also interesting that all of his wins over Hurdles have come at sharp tracks - Plumpton x2, Kempton and Fakenham - so he should really enjoy Hereford.
He has run here once before, but it was over fences and whilst it was a respectable performance, he wasn’t at his best. I’d say that’s because he never enjoyed fences, rather than him not enjoying the track. I think he can bounce to form in this easier race and at a backable price, I think he is superb each way value today.
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