Key Points
- My Tuesday selection should have come on for his seasonal debut and the form has been franked!
- The same connections won this race last year and are chasing a repeat performance!
- With a run already under his belt and a mark of 68, my betting tip is handicapped to strike
My betting tip for today runs in the 1m 3f Apprentice Handicap at Newbury for horses rated 0-70. I tipped the winner of this race last year to my Discord members, and the same connections have targeted it again today, albeit with a different horse this time around. I think they have every chance of winning back to back renewals, and their runner seems overpriced at 11/2.
If you’re new here, I post four betting tips most weeks, but you’ll sometimes find other types of content too, including big race trends and antepost picks. By the way, don’t forget to check out my antepost selections for the 2025 Northumberland Plate, the 2026 Cheltenham Festival and the 2026 Aintree Grand National to grab some early prices. I’ll have more betting tips for you on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday, plus something a bit different for you on Thursday.
Betting advice
- 17:40 Newbury -
Secret Beach
@ 11/2 (3 places) -
0.75pt each way
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Secret Beach can enable his connections to retain this race
There are many reasons why I think Secret Beach can win this race again today, and in the next sections of my article I’ll put them all into context for you. Let’s take a look.
As a general rule, horses tend to improve for their first run of the season as their fitness levels increase. There are exceptions of course, but It is quite rare for a horse to be at its absolute best on its seasonal debut; most require racecourse action to be at their peak.
Likewise, they tend to improve for their first run after wind surgery. The general view is that they need that first run to realise they can breathe more easily, then on their second attempt, they are ready to put in maximum effort.
Those facts make Secret Beach especially interesting. He made his seasonal reappearance at Brighton in May. That was his first run for 257 days, and it was also his first run after having wind surgery.
Although connections expected him to come forward for the run, they were not sure that Brighton would suit him. I’m sure it was a very pleasant surprise when he did very well, and finished a creditable third. He travelled through the race very strongly from the rear, but at the business end, his lack of race fitness found him out.
Although we haven’t seen the Brighton winner, Lexington Knight, out again since, we have seen Enthused, who placed second, and Francesco Baracca, who came fourth. Both of those horses have won again since, clearly franking the form.
The same connections won this race last year and I think they can repeat the feat
Based on the above, Secret Beach must have an obvious chance of progressing from his Brighton run, and performing well again today. I’d also say it’s no coincidence that his trainer and owner won this race last year, and are very keen to repeat the feat.
In fact, it even looks like they have used the same plan again - a preparation run elsewhere, then come here to strike second time out. Last year they sent Lucky’s Dream to Nottingham for his seasonal reappearance, then he took a big step forward to win last year’s renewal of this race on his next start.
As I have said many times, trainers are creatures of habit and I’m sure when they brought Secret Beach back into training, they already had this race circled on their calendar, and have prepared him in much the same way.
Lastly, although it’s purely coincidence, it’s interesting to know that Lucky’s Dream won the race from Stall 1 last year, and Secret Beach has landed the same plum draw in Stall 1 this time. The same fantastic draw - hopefully the same result!
Secret Beach is handicapped to strike off a mark of 68
Secret Beach also looks very well handicapped off a mark of 68. After his three qualifying runs over inadequate trips, the handicapper gave him an initial opening mark of 67.
In his first Handicap race at Goodwood, he performed solidly over 1m 2f to finish fourth, beaten just 2.75 lengths. He went to Newmarket next time out, off the same mark of 67 and upped to 1m 4f, where he finished second, denied by just half a length,
The following month, off to a 3lb higher mark of 70, he was sent to Epsom over the same 1m 4f, and finished second once again. The RPR ratings produced in those two runs were 74 and 76 respectively. For his second at Epsom Secret Beach was pushed up another 1lb to a mark of 71.
Secret Beach was poor in the final two runs of his campaign, but in fairness, he was dropped to 1m 2f, then to 1m for those, and I think the distances were inadequate for him. As a result, he dropped back down from 71 to a mark of 68, which is 2lb lower than his run at Epsom.
All of the above leaves us with a long list of positives today:
- Secret Beach should improve fitness wise following his seasonal reappearance
- Brighton wasn’t ideal for him, but he produced an RPR of 73, and should run even better at Newbury
- His Brighton form has been franked with the horses in second and fourth both winning since
- Secret Beach looks well handicapped off a mark of 68
- His connections won this race last year with a different horse, but similar preparation
- Secret Beach has landed the perfect draw in Stall 1, the same stall that Lucky’s Dream won from last year.
- There are three places on offer, despite this only being a seven-runner field
Can Team Brookhouse win back to back renewals?
When you piece this all together, I think Secret Beach has an outstanding chance in today’s race and I think the market has underestimated his chances at a price of 11/2. With three places on offer in this seven-runner field, I’d be very shocked and disappointed if he couldn’t at least finish in the top three and return place money. However, I think he is capable of winning this, and he looks a solid bet.
However, there are a couple of negatives. Firstly, Secret Beach is still a maiden after nine races, so he needs to prove he can win. Secondly, this race is an Apprentice Handicap, which means he will have a less-experienced jockey on board, and there are risks, naturally. Although Ryan Kavanagh does have plenty of experience, it’s still enough for me to trim the stake down to 0.75pt each way.
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The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
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