Key Points
- Dan Skelton may have only recorded one winner at Cheltenham but I think he’ll strike now!
- Joyeux Machin looks ready to win for his new stable now that he is stepped up in trip
- Flegmatik is unbelievably well handicapped with conditions to suit
After months of build up, the Cheltenham Festival seemed to come and go in a flash. And nobody can say that those four days were not packed full of action and drama. On that note, I’m pleased to report that while it was a very challenging one for punters, my betting tips here returned a healthy profit for the 2025 Cheltenham Festival.
Across my seven Cheltenham Festival articles, I advised 14pts of bets which returned 20.6pts, therefore a profit of 6.6pts and a lovely ROI (return on investment) of 47.14%. As well as making you some profit, I hope you are enjoying reading the content. With the Cheltenham Festival over, I have looked through the action at Uttoxeter and Kempton today, and I have decided on a bet at each. In this article, I will take you through why I like these two horses and why I think they are both ready to win.
Betting advice
I am recommending a 1pt each way double on the following horses:
- 14:25 Uttoxeter - Joyeux Machin @ 7/2
- 15:20 Kempton - Flegmatik @ 4/1
At the time of writing, the double currently pays 21.5/1.
bet365 are top price for my Saturday double!
There’s no doubt that bet365 has the best price available today. They are offering 21.5/1 on the double and I feel that is well worth playing at that. As well as offering the best price, they also have a superb sign up offer. If you open an account and
bet £10, and you’ll get £30 in free bets. It’s the perfect way to take a punt on today’s double, and still have a few quid in the pot for whatever else takes your fancy.
A Dan Skelton double to cure your Festival blues
As mentioned, Dan Skelton had a relatively quiet Cheltenham Festival compared to last year. At the 2024 Festival he enjoyed four successes with Langer Dan, Unexpected Party, Grey Dawning and Protektorat - a nice mix of two Handicaps and two Grade 1s. Sadly Langer Dan was a non-runner on the day of the Stayers Hurdle due to a dirty nose, and Grey Dawning bypassed Cheltenham to take in Kelso and Aintree. Unexpected Party and Protektorat both made an attempt to retain their crowns, but could only finish second and fourth respectively. That said, Dan did manage to achieve Grade 1 success with The New Lion in the Turners Novices’ Hurdle.
Whilst Dan was light on Cheltenham prize money for his Trainers’ Championship charge, it is only a matter of time until he is landing more big pots. Interestingly, he has a few in with a chance today, including my selections, Joyeux Machin and Flegmatik. Whilst many say the National Hunt scene has become too Cheltenham focused, it’s safe to say that Dan isn’t shoehorning horses into Cheltenham for the sake of it.
Joyeux Machin is a prime example of that as he could have run in the Coral Cup but he tackles this much more realistic target instead. Whilst this is no walkover, it looks much easier than the Coral Cup and isn’t worth too much less (£52,030 vs £61,897). It is a 0-150 but with many of the big guns having run at Cheltenham or heading to Aintree, there is nothing rated higher than 143 in the field, and only three are rated higher than Joyeux Machin, who is on 135. It’s this kind of bigger picture view on placement that makes Dan Skelton such a force in the Trainers’ Championship.
Joyeux Machin will relish the step back up in trip and can land leg one!
The first leg of our double today is Joyeux Machin in the 2m 7.5f Handicap Hurdle at Uttoxeter. I've always loved this horse, and that dates all the way back to his Bumper debut, where he was second to the late Facile Vega. He has some great pieces of form in the book, but overall, he's been more miss than hit. In December, he was sold and moved to Dan Skelton’s yard. He had two runs over 2m 1f at Cheltenham, once in a Handicap and once in The International Hurdle, won by Constitution Hill. Unfortunately, he didn't set the world alight in either of them.
However, he was dropped from 135 to 132 for those runs and made much more of a splash at Wetherby over 2m 3.5f under 7lb claimer Harry Atkins. He was held up at the back for far too long, and Harry only asked him for minimal effort. He was a huge eye-catcher running on well through horses to finish third, only beaten by 3.25 lengths. If you get a second, listen back to the commentator's "Where did Joyeux Machin come from, flew through" which just about sums it up perfectly.
Judging from that Wetherby run, he looked ready to land a valuable race and he ran in one last time out at Ascot, worth £26,015 to the winner. 7lb claimer Harry Atkins came off, and stable jockey Harry Skelton went on. Whilst Joyeux Machin has form on all different grounds, some of his best efforts, including his career best, came on better ground, so I thought he would relish the conditions at Ascot that day. Joyeux Machin was running off 133, but I felt if they got the best out of him, he could be a 145+ horse. He was held up in midfield and got caught a bit outpaced. He stayed on very well towards the finish but the winner, Altobelli, was away and gone.
They now try for this race at Uttoxeter, worth exactly twice as much and Joyeux Machin goes up in trip from 2m 3.5f to 2m 7.5f. He has already won over 3m at Wexford, so we know he stays, and I think the extra distance will enable him to get his head in front today. He’ll be able to hold a better position, at a more comfortable pace and also bring his stamina into play. He has gone up 2lb for his last run from 133 to 135 but like I said, I feel he is a 145+ horse and that 2lb rise won’t stop him.
Flegmatik can complete the double for us at his beloved Kempton
The second leg of our double is Flegmatik in the 2m 4.5f Handicap Chase at Kempton. Flegmatik is a very good horse on his day, with some very strong form in the book. He was rated 143 at his peak last year, but has dropped to a rating of 130 now and looks very well handicapped. His form when beating Chianti Classico over 3m at this track stands out, but I really liked his second behind Outlaw Peter two months later. We had a 3pt bet in my Discord on Outlaw Peter that day, and Flegmatik gave him plenty to think about. He has also run very well in other valuable races from 2m 4.5f-3m off marks ranging from 135-140, regularly recording RPRs in the mid 140s.
Tristan Durrell was aboard for his 3m win here, and takes the ride again today, claiming a very valuable 3lb, which effectively brings his mark down to 127. I have no concerns about Tristan's ability in the saddle, and see his booking as a huge plus with that 3lb claim. Flegmatik does need to find more than his form this season, but the return here should spark that for him. He competed here two runs ago, but the ground was unsuitably soft that day, so I would draw a line through that. Last time out, he had a decent enough race and picked up some prize money in the Ascot Chase. Interestingly, every season that Flegmatik has been running for the Skeltons, he has recorded a win for them, but is yet to do it this season, so this could be his day.
Incidentally, Flegmatik also ran in this race last year, but bumped into Outlaw Peter as mentioned above. If you look back at the form, Outlaw Peter was rated 135 that day, whereas Flegmatik was rated 140 and subsequently gave him 5lb. As well as Flegmatik coming back for this race to go one better, Outlaw Peter comes back to defend his crown. There is a big difference 12 months on though . Outlaw Peter has gone up 8lb whereas Flegmatik has come down 10lb, seeing a huge 18lb swing in the weights for a 1.25 lengths margin of victory. And that before you factor in Tristan’s 3lb claim as well, which effectively makes it 21lb. Flegmatik is a 10-year-old now, but I think he retains his ability, or at the very least, most of it and this may well have been a long term plan. If I'm right, he'll take some beating here.
I think both will win, but take the safety net of the place double
I think both Joyeux Machin and Flegmatik can win their respective races. However, I think the smart play here is an each way double. At 7/2 and 4/1, they are realistically priced, but too skinny to play as singles. When you are sweet on the chances of two horses in a scenario such as this, I like to play an each way double.
The reasoning behind this is as follows. If either of them happen to bump into one, or make a late mistake and get nabbed near the line, you’re going away out of pocket. However, if you play them as a double, as long as they both finish in the places, you’ll at least get a return. Based on a 1pt each way double, two places would return 3.06pts, a profit of 1.06pts. However, if both can win, as I believe they can, we are laughing all the way to the bank with 25.56pts. Let’s hope they can do so to cure your Cheltenham blues, or your Cheltenham hangovers!
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