Key Points
- Today’s betting tip was an eye-catcher last time out
- The step up in trip looks the right move for her and I think she’ll love it
- She’s become very dangerously handicapped and gets a great jockey booking today
I believe that I have found an absolute gem of a bet today! I think this horse is significantly overpriced at 16/1 and is well worth a bet! I can easily see her going off at a single figure price in this race and she could make the 16/1 on offer look silly.
If you’re reading one of my articles for the first time, I’m RacingGav and I’m the resident horse racing tipster here at Betting.co.uk. I mostly produce daily betting tips like this article, but I do venture into other types of content, including antepost tips, guides, and big race trends.
Do you like antepost betting? If so, make sure you check out my existing articles here. You'll find antepost tips for the Cesarewitch Handicap and King George VI Chase this year, then the Cheltenham Festival and the
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Betting advice
- 18:40 Kempton -
Aramis Grey
@ 16/1 (4places) -
0.75pt each way
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I think the market has Aramis Grey all wrong here!
I’m genuinely shocked looking at a race of this calibre and seeing Aramis Grey in here at as big as 16/1! I think she is the completely wrong price and I’d have her in at a single figure price. In this article, I’ll be breaking down why I think this, so make sure you read on to find out my reasons!
Aramis Grey was a real eye-catcher last time out
Last time out, Aramis Grey ran over 6f here in the Unibet London Sprint Series Final Handicap. That was a Class 2 handicap with huge prize money on offer - It was nearly £80,000 in total and over £40,000 to the winner. Therefore a very deep and competitive field turned up for it!
Aramis Grey was always going to find it a tough race to be winning and went off 28/1. Her task was made harder by being drawn in stall ten and even harder again by being slowly away. She raced in rear throughout the majority of the race and was never on terms. Ultimately she finished eighth and on the surface, it looked like a poor run.
However, she wasn’t asked any serious questions by Robert Havlin until it was all over. When he did ask questions, he got plenty of response from her. She clocked the fourth fastest second last furlong and the third fastest final furlong. She also hit the line strongly, producing the second highest finishing speed in the race, suggesting she was finishing full of running, supporting the visuals. All of that was very eye-catching to me.
She now drops down from that hot Class 2 handicap to this much more modest Class 4 (0-85) handicap. The 2lb drop from 88 to 86 allows her to drop into the top of this lower grade handicap. It’s officially for horses rated 0-85 but they allow horses rated 86 and 87 to run providing they carry the relevant weight.
The step up in trip looks the right move for her and I think she’ll love it
I find it very interesting that after she powered through the line over 6f last time but all too late, that they now step her up to 7f at the same track. To me this looks very logical and I think she should love the extra distance.
If you judge it on RPRs, her second best performance of all time came at Lingfield over 7f in March 2024 where she finished second off a mark of 93, producing a RPR of 102.
Interestingly, I couldn’t find much in the way of pace angles for this race but with 12 runners set to go to post, you would expect something to go forward and set the gallop. Usually this potential lack of pace would concern me, especially for a hold up type. However, as she is stepping up to 7f here, a slower tempo may not be all that bad, especially as we know she has the pace to compete over 6f.
We also know that she likes this track generally as she has two wins and six places from ten runs here, so she rarely runs a bad race at Kempton. It is also worth noting that those two runs out of the places from ten were when denied a clear run in February and when never put into the race last time, so she does have some excuses.
She’s become very dangerously handicapped and gets a great jockey booking today
At her peak last summer, Aramis Grey was rated 96. On nine separate occasions, she has produced RPRs of 100+ with the peak figure produced being 104. Therefore, she is certainly a mare with tons of talent.
She is a ten time winner with eight of those coming on the AW. Her last win came in February 2023 off a mark of 92, so whilst that was a long time ago now, she has fallen 6lb below that winning mark now on 86. Therefore, she is certainly handicapped to strike if it falls her way.
What I also find eye-catching about her today is that Sean Levey has been booked to ride, he has only ever had one ride for Jack Jones, so we don’t have much to go off in the way of past data but he’s certainly a top jockey. Interestingly, Rossa Ryan (another top jockey) was booked to ride on AW Finals Day at Newcastle back in April and the pair went down by just half a length off a 6lb higher mark. A similar performance (RPR of 96) would see Aramis Grey with circa 10lb in hand…
Can Aramis Grey end her long losing run?
For me, the positives are overwhelming here and I think she has a massive chance. She was an eye-catcher the last day, she takes a big drop in class and she’s stepping up in trip which should suit. In addition to that, she’s become very well handicapped and she has Sean Levey taking the ride.
On the flip side, I do appreciate she’s on a long losing run with no win since February 2023. In addition to that, she is also drawn wide out in stall eleven. However, whilst that is not ideal, she is a hold up horse anyway, so it’s not as concerning as it would be for some horses. The only other concern is that as she comes in at the top of this weaker race, she does have to shoulder 10st 2lb, which is a hefty amount, especially for a mare. That said, she has carried 10st to victory at both Wolverhampton and Chelmsford in the past, which helps to ease the concern slightly.
For me, she is certainly not a 16/1 shot. I feel the price here is completely wrong and therefore she has to be a bet. If she was a shorter price, I’d probably make it half stakes given the concerns I have. However, I feel there is so much value in the price that I want to push this back up to 0.75pts Each Way!
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