Key Points
- Today’s betting tip looks very well handicapped
- He has excuses for his poor performance last time out
- This quicker ground should be perfect for him
The big Jumps racing festivals may be over, but we still have the summer Jumps action to get stuck into. My betting tip, and NAP of the day, lines up in the opener at Newton Abbot, a Handicap Chase over 2m 5f. And I think he has a fantastic chance.
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Betting advice
- 13:45 Newton Abbot -
Excello
@ 9/2 -
1pt Win
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Excello can bounce back with a bang today!
Excello was very underwhelming on paper last time out, but he is better than that, and he has excuses for his below-par run, which I’ll come onto later in this article. He looks to have his ideal conditions today, and I think he can return to form. At his best, a race like this is well within his scope off his current mark, and I think he’ll take some beating today.
Excello looks very well handicapped
If you look back to December 2023, Excello bolted up at Ascot, beating a very useful rival in Solo, and I also like the horse that was third, Straw Fan Jack. Excello won off a mark of 133 that day, and produced a RPR of 142. The manner of that victory was so impressive that the handicapper smacked him with a 13lb rise, which was over the top.
He subsequently struggled off a mark of 146 and 144 on his next two starts, before having wind surgery and we did not see him back on the track again for 256 days. I think Nicky Henderson knew Excello’s mark was unrealistic, as he sent him back over Hurdles, as he was still a Novice in that discipline. However, after four runs over Hurdles, they reverted to fences at Sandown, over 3m, and he ran a superb race off a much reduced mark of 132.
His finishing position at Sandown doesn’t do his run justice, as he was leading the field turning in and looked the winner. Unfortunately, the 3m trip found him out at the business end, particularly so going up the Sandown hill, and he lost three places on the run-in. The handicapper was also impressed by the performance, as he put him back up 2lb to 134.
He has excuses for his latest run at Aintree when well fancied
Off that revised mark of 134, he went to Aintree for the Topham. Given he ran superbly at Sandown, but didn’t stay the 3m trip, I thought the Topham would have been perfect for him. I clearly was not alone with that thought, as he was quite well-backed before the race as well. It was also notable that Nico de Boinville got down to 10st 4lb in order to take the ride.
I had rather hoped he would be ridden quite aggressively in the Topham, considering his low weight. However, while Nico had a nice position down the inside, it was a messy start. He was hampered, squeezed out, and ended up in rear rather than being prominent! It was always going to be an uphill battle from that point. That said, he still ran a cracker for a long way.
Jumping two out, Excello was still in contention when he made a bad mistake, bumping a rival in the process, and came down on his nose, nearly throwing Nico out of the saddle. That was a shuddering blunder, and he was never able to recover from it. Between the start and that mistake two out, he stood no chance, yet his finishing position of 14th doesn’t do him justice.
This ground looks perfect for him
Whilst Excello has won over in Auteuil on Heavy ground, I think he thrives on better going. His career-best performance was his Ascot win, which came on better ground. He was also superb at Sandown, until his stamina gave out, and that was on Good going. Then, as already mentioned, I think he ran far better than the form book suggests at Aintree, and that was on Good to Soft ground. Arguably on the faster side by the time it came to his race.
If the going report is accurate, today’s Good, Good to Firm in places, will be the fastest ground Excello has encountered. However, they are watering at Newton Abbot, which could take the Good to Firm out of it. Either way, I think he’ll relish these conditions and we should see the best of Excello here.
Can Excello return to winning ways?
Excello has a lot in his favour today, and I think he’ll take a lot of beating. As already mentioned, he is well-handicapped - back down to his last winning mark. You can forgive his last run, and this ground looks perfect for him. His Ascot win also came over 2m 5f, which is the same trip that he tackles today. The cheekpieces saw him in great form last time out, and they are retained here, which is another positive.
Nico is out through injury currently, but Paul O’Brien takes the ride, and he is a superb jockey, so I have no concerns there. Paul has a fantastic racing weight of 10st 5lb, and Nicky Henderson is hitting a nice spot of form, with his last six runners reading 212181, including Lulamba winning at the Punchestown Festival.
Every single angle that I look at Excello from, he just looks rock solid today and therefore, he is a full 1pt Win bet for me. At the end of the day, I fancied him for the Topham at Aintree, which paid £84,195.00 to the winner, so I’d be mad not to fancy him in these much calmer waters with £13,202.50 going to the winner. I genuinely think he can win this, and whether he is kept on the go through the summer, to make the most of the better ground, or brought back in October, he could progress and win more. He is only a six-year-old after all, and I think he has plenty more to show us.
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