Expert Punter
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I’ve decided to put together an each way Lucky 15 for the final day of the York Ebor meeting. We’ll start with the Group 3 Sky Bet Stakes where there is a decent enough lineup, but a few of those at the top of the market are rather quirky sorts. I’ve gone for value here, with a horse I believe can outrun his odds, and I’ll be more than happy if he places for us.
Next, we have one for the Stayers where my NAP selection will line up. He was really unlucky last time out after slipping on the home turn, but he was on a roll in his previous two starts and I’m convinced this gelding is still way ahead of his handicap mark.
Then we have the highlight race of the day which is the ultra competitive Yorkshire Ebor and this race is a minefield. That being said, my selection looks absolutely rock solid in this field and carries a juicy double figure price to take the honours. Last of all, we have the Roses Stakes for the speed merchants, where I have a value contender who might just have something to show us at a big price.
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My first pick comes in the opening race on Saturday. Alyanaabi and Enfjaar are the Shadwell entries and both have claims in this lineup. Alyanaabi finished four lengths behind Notable Speech at Newmarket, and then Rosallion at Ascot, so he must be respected based on that form. However, Enfjaar is stepping into Group company for the first time and probably needs to find a little more.
But in my opinion, Haunted Dream is the one to go with here. He has won at York previously and these speed courses seem to suit him very well. He comes into this race off the back of a really good performance at Goodwood and I’m sure that he has even more to show us. He has conditions to suit and the Wathnan Racing team have achieved plenty of success with their horses this year. In an open Group race, I would give him a fair chance of backing up his latest win.
This is a race for the three-year-old Stayers and we have a good bunch in this field. Ballydoyle’s The Equator is likely to prove popular, but he carries top weight here and will need to dig very deep to beat the bunch of improving sorts in this race. Dramatic Star also holds nice credentials, but the Haggas team have been a little out of sorts this week, and Dramatic Star would need to bounce back from a disappointing effort on his latest start.
My selection here though is
Wild Wave. He has been very progressive this season, winning at Kempton over 1m 4f and backing that up at Doncaster with another win over the full 1m 6f. On his latest start at Haydock he slipped quite badly on the home bend, which completely scuppered his chances. You can put a line through that run, as it was no fault of his own and he was travelling just fine at the time.
He is a horse clearly still on the up, and he has the joint-highest speed figure in the race. We have by no means seen the best of this colt yet, and he is sure to go well at a track that should suit his style.
The highlight race of the entire meeting is the 22-runner Yorkshire Ebor, and this is a seriously competitive Handicap. Burdett Road is an interesting one. He has speed on his side and looks weighted to put in a big run here. Kihavah is one I'd give a chance to at 50/1. He loves fast ground and has a fair level of speed too. He is also a very straightforward sort and likely to run his race. Definitely not the worst 50/1 shot in the world. Ziggy is also worthy of a mention, after winning here last time out. He has been very consistent, and if he handles the extra two furlongs, he may not be too far away either.
But I’m siding with Andrew Balding’s Fairbanks here. He was unlucky not to win last time out, but that leaves him nicely-handicapped. He made steady progress through the field that last day, just getting chinned on the line. I believe he still has more improvement in him, and must surely enter the equation here. He is a very straightforward sort and if he is given a similar ride to last time, where he is able to pick his rivals off one by one, then he will definitely make the places.
The final leg of my Lucky 15 comes in the Roses Stakes, where pure speed is an absolute necessity. Mr Lightside and Tropical Storm are the highest rated pair in the field, and have shown plenty in their careers to date. They are both certain to be in the mix, but we will look elsewhere for some value.
I’m opting for Vingegaard here, who is better value than his fifth place last time out suggests. He showed plenty of speed over five furlongs and was only five lengths back from Big Mojo at Goodwood, which is pretty strong form. Prior to that he had improved consistently and the switch to York is likely to suit him very well. I like the fact that he travels strongly, and if he is given a more patient ride, he could well be in the mix, especially with the turn of foot he possesses. At a double-figure price, I will give him a chance to pick up another place for us.
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