There are not many sporting events that manage to bring the United Kingdom to a halt. The FA Cup final may have done so in the past, the Boat Race has its own fervent support but nothing attracts the eyes of the nation like the Grand National manages to do.
Whether you are fan or horse racing or not, the annual race at Aintree has a certain magical quality to it. One where no matter what you were doing in the minutes before, everything stops in order to put the television on.
Expert’s Guide on how to use past statistics to bet on the Grand National
While the reason that the race is so popular is not necessarily the best jockeys and horses are taking to the turf, more the fact that you can place a wager on which combination will cross the finish line first.
With so many horses being entered into the race each year, it can be rather difficult to pick a winner. Then again, that is what makes it so special when you do come up trumps. The question is do you go with your head or with your heart when selecting the winner?
Although some people will simply pick an entrant due to the name of the horse or the colours that the jockey is wearing, others will take a far more refined approach and one that is based on the usage of statistics and data.
With almost 200 years worth of data to analyse, digging so deep could be something of a minefield. Thankfully, that is where we come in and with the numbers crunched, here are the statistical angles that we have found before the 2023 running of the Grand National.
At the right age
Arguably the most important aspect to consider is the age of your pre-race pick. It may not seem as if such a statistic is fundamental in whether a horse will win the Grand National, but the data from the past 25 years says differently.
With the average age of the winner being an average age of 9.6 years old, you may want to take a look into how old the crop of 2023 actually are. Too old and a former force may well be past his sell date.
By the same note, if the horse is too young when compared to our golden figure of 9.6, then their best days may be still to come. Of course, you can get years where the trend is bucked, but it does look as if the sweet spot for a winner is between nine and ten years old.
Ages of winning horses listed:
- >5 Years: 3%
- >6 Years: 9%
- >7 Years: 14%
- >8 Years: 14%
- >9 Years: 27%
- 10 Years: 13%
- 11 Years: 11%
- 12 Years: 6%
- 13 Years: 1%
- 14 Years: 0%
- 15 Years: 1%
Carrying some weight
Another point to consider before selecting your 2023 Grand National picks is how much weight your horse or horses will be carrying before the starters orders are handed out. Like with the ages, there is certainly an optimum weight to aid the quest for victory.
When looking at the past 25 years worth of winners, the average winning weight has been 10-03. To emphasise the point further, four of the last five winners at Aintree have all weighed under 11.
Only Tiger Roll tipped over the scales between 2018 and 2022, as the Davy Russell-led horse won in the 2019 Grand National at a weight of 11-5. Although it must be noted that the combination won the year before at a weight of 10-13 by comparison.
Since 2011, the lightest winner has been recorded at 10-3. A weight that was recorded by both Auroras Encore in 2013 and Minella Times in 2021. If you can find a horse under 11-0, you could be onto a winner.
Backing the favourite
When it comes to horse racing, the favourite is always a good entry point for bettors who are unsure who to back. They usually have the shortest odds for good reason and that reason is that they are likely to win the race.
Unfortunately when it comes to the Grand National this is rarely the case. Since 2011 the favourite has only lived up to the form guide on one single occasion. The year was 2019, the horse was Tiger Roll.
Due to his dominant performance the year before, the bookmakers could not look elsewhere in terms of selecting a favourite and Davy Russell earned successive Grand National wins at Aintree.
However, that 2019 success was certainly the exception rather than the rule. Especially when you look at how the favourites have performed in the past five editions of this great sporting spectacle.
In 2018 and 2021, the favourites Total Recall and Cloth Cap pulled up both times.. In 2017, Blaklion earned a fourth-placed finish and last year Any Second Now was pipped by Noble Yeats to victory.
With this in mind, an each-way bet on the favourite may see some winnings returned to your betting account. Backing the favourite to win outright on Saturday, may not end up being as profitable as you think.
What are the odds
While if we look at the winners from 2011 onwards, we can also start to paint a picture of the starting prices that could lead you to victory. When Tiger Roll earned back to back successes in 2018 and 2019, it was priced at 10/1 and 4/1 respectively.
The second favourite one year and the favourite the next. Two short prices in comparison to the other winners of the past decade or so and if we look at the winners from 2011 to 2017 and add 2021 and 2022’s victors for good measure, we found this insight.
The average winning odds when excluding Tiger Roll’s two wins from the equation has been 30/1 since 2011. Even if you add Davy Russell’s double into the calculation, it only brings the average winning odds down to 25/1. It may pay to go big in the biggest race of the year.
In living colour
Another aspect that you may want to consider is the colour of the horse. If you have your sights set on a grey thoroughbred, you may want to soon avert your attention elsewhere. Unfortunately for this colour scheme, they have only won the race on four occasions.
Not only that, but only three grey horses have crossed the finishing line. The Lamb managed to do a 19th century double and it would be another 90 years until Nicolaus Silver won the honours in 1961.
Fast forward 51 years and grey would once again be the colour in the winner’s enclosure. Daryl Jacob riding Neptune Collonges would do the business at odds of 33/1 but since then, there have only been grey days for this particular type of horse at Aintree.
Sources:
- https://www.grandnationalstats.co.uk
- https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/the-grand-national/about-the-event/grand-national-facts-figures/
- https://www.britishracecourses.org/grand-national-facts/
- https://www.thestatsdontlie.com/horse-racing/festivals/aintree/grand-national/
