Key Points
- South-coast rivals collide at the Vitality
- Open game assured
- A feisty encounter awaits for referee Michael Oliver
Winless Southampton make the short 30-mile trip to 13th-placed Bournemouth on Monday night in a derby game which I expect to have some added spice. Russell Martin’s Saints have just a single point so far this campaign, a 1-1 draw from last weekend’s game with Ipswich and currently sit 18th and inside the bottom three in the table.
Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth side have had a somewhat patchy start to the season, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 defeats from their opening fixtures, and have lost the last 2 games without scoring. It could be argued both sides are in desperate need of the victory given they’ve only had 1 between them so far and this is something that could fuel the local rivalry further.
Similarities in styles
When it comes to setting up, Iraola’s side consistently play a 4-2-3-1 formation and have done so in all of their PL games so far. The Saints have also adopted this formation in their last 2 games after initially playing a 3-5-2 system so I expect to see two sides playing open attacking football out from the defence.
This should make for an attractive ‘easy on the eye’ match-up with both managers encouraging their wing-backs to push up and support the attack. However, expect a battle at the Vitality with plenty of tackles flying in as well, and not just pretty passing football as the statistics have shown so far in both teams’ seasons.
Fireworks guaranteed
Given that both sides might fancy their chances of picking up 3 points in this one and the local rivalry at stake, I see this being a feisty game with challenges from both teams on the pitch. The fact Southampton have had 15 yellow cards and 1 red card so far in their 5 fixtures would attest to this. They’ve made an average of 13 fouls across these 5 matches and with an average of 3 yellow cards per game.
It’s a similar pattern with The Cherries too, despite not yet receiving a red card they have had a total of 18 bookings so far this term (3.6 per game) and have also committed an average of 13 fouls over their 5 fixtures. Noteworthy is The Cherries accumulated 20 fouls in their match at home to Newcastle.
Mr Oliver tasked with the duty
It’s interesting to note that the match will be refereed by Michael Oliver on Monday night. He just so happens to have brandished more yellow cards so far this season than any other referee, with 28 in total. Oliver has also shown 1 red card in the 5 games he has officiated this campaign.
I expect the card-happy man in the middle to be busy putting names in his notepad during this clash, having produced an average of 5.6 yellow cards a game. During the 2023/2024 season, Oliver showed the joint 4th highest number of yellow cards (95 from 24 games) and the joint-most red cards with 5 in total, so the nature of this game could see the card count rising very quickly indeed.
The betting markets
This leads us to the betting markets for the fixture. Having listened to several podcasts this week, I’m surprised how many times I’ve heard Bournemouth being tipped up. Yes, they are the most likely winner but best priced at only 4/6 with
William Hill
I would steer away from this. The fact Bournemouth have yet to win at home, having gained just a single point and goal so far in front of their fans really doesn’t justify the short price.
Semenyo first goal-scorer at 13/2 with Unibet
I envisage goals at both ends in this one and so the goalscorer market is worthy of consideration. Bournemouth’s Antoine Semenyo is best-priced at 13/2 with
Unibet
to notch the first goal in the game.
He’s already scored twice in the campaign this season and just missed out on scoring last week with a marginal offside call against him at Anfield. I’m happy backing the short-price favourite’s top marksman at these odds.
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Over 4.5 cards at 4/5 with Unibet
For the main bet though it has to be a bet on the total cards. Over 4.5 cards is at 4/5 with
Unibet
very enticing given the number of fouls both sides commit.
Added to that, the number of yellow cards each has received and referee Oliver’s historical nature of flashing the cards without hesitation definitely gives this bet value and a strong probability of paying out come full-time. So get the beers in and cheer along for a scrap by the sea!
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Bournemouth vs Southampton Best Bet
- Market:
Total Cards
- Selection:
Over 4.5
- Odds:
4/5
- Stake:
1.5pts
- Bookie:
Unibet
- Market:
First Goalscorer
- Selection:
Antoine Semenyo
- Odds:
13/2
- Stake:
0.25pt
- Bookie:
Unibet
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