Key Points
- Unbeaten-at-home Brentford host form team Bournemouth
- Confidence is high and a lively encounter expected
- Is discipline a possible issue? Let’s profit from it!
Brentford host Bournemouth this Saturday afternoon with The Bees only 1 of 4 clubs still unbeaten at home this season. They have won 4 of their 5 matches on home soil and their form at the GTech is in stark contrast to their away record where they have lost all 5 games on the road.
Thomas Frank’s outfit find themselves in 12th place yet only 5 points away from 4th positioned Chelsea in the PL standings. The Cherries head to West London in fine fettle after gaining 7 points from the last 3 games, with highly impressive victories at home to both Arsenal and Manchester City coming either side of an equally well-earned point away at Aston Villa.
Andoni Iraola’s team are 2 points and 2 places better off than their opponents in 10th. However, they have only won once all campaign away from The Vitality and will be looking to inflict The Bees’ first defeat in front of their own fans this term.
Home comforts for Bees
Thomas Frank’s men have the joint-best home record in the PL so far along with Manchester City, after accumulating 13 points from a possible 15 available at the GTech. The Bees are also the joint top scorers along with Tottenham after scoring 15 goals, an average of 3 goals per game at home.
Frank’s side also like to get on the front foot and get at teams from the first whistle, with The Bees scoring first in 8 of their 10 PL matches and 4 of their 5 games at home. Incredibly 4 of Brentford’s 19 goals so far have come in the opening 2 minutes which is a testament to how Frank wants his team to be aggressive and attack the opposition from the first minute.
Top scorer Bryan Mbuemo has 8 goals to his name already, with 4 of these being the opening strike in a game.
Cherries are no easy picking
After 3 wins in their last 5 fixtures, including defeating previously unbeaten Manchester City last time out, confidence is at an all-time high for The Cherries as they look to move further up the table.
Antoine Semenyo has been the go-to-man for Iraola’s side this season, with 4 goals and 1 assist so far from his 10 appearances. Teammate and Brazilian international Evanilson looks to have also found his shooting boots after bagging 2 goals in his last 2 appearances for The Cherries.
Where does the best bet lie?
Looking forward to the fixture and the fact both teams have been involved in some entertaining and high-scoring games so far, the initial instinct was to check out the ‘Both Teams to Score’ market. The best odds available are at 8/15 with
BoyleSports
on both sides finding the net.
I would say in the current climate, that’s not a bad price. Some games in the league have been closer to 2/5 with a similar kind of make-up.
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Potential for goals at both ends
The Bees have scored in 9 of their 10 matches and in all 5 games at the GTech. Bournemouth have scored in 6 of their 10 games, with both teams scoring in 3 of The Cherries 5 matches away from The Vitality.
Additionally, Frank’s side are only 1 of 2 sides yet to keep a clean sheet this campaign in the PL (the other being Wolves), and Iraola’s defence has been breached in all but one of their matches so both sides struggle to keep the ball out of the net.
Not enough value in the first goalscorer market
The First Goalscorer market and the aforementioned Bryan Mbuemo is another interesting bet, with the Brentford forward best priced at 11/2 with
Betfred
to land the first blow against Bournemouth. Frank’s team likes to get out of the blocks early, with 80% of their matches this term seeing them score first attesting to that.
However, despite 3 goals in his last 4 games, none of Mbuemo’s strikes have been the opening goal in any of these fixtures, and with the odds of 11/2 this does seem a little short in my opinion.
Especially when you consider that there are the likes of fellow forward Yoane Wissa or Bournemouth’s Semenyo or Evanilson with similar recent goalscoring form who you could argue have equally as good a chance of scoring the opener.
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Mr Bond to deal the cards
When it comes to discipline, Bournemouth have received the 6th highest number of yellow cards so far in the PL, with Iraola’s team collecting 28 yellow cards in their 10 games and just over half of these coming when The Cherries have played away from home. Each of Semenyo, Justin Kluivert and Ryan Christie have been shown 4 yellows each.
Given how both Brentford and Bournemouth like to play attacking, aggressive, front-foot football, I expect there could be a few challenges flying in once the game gets underway, particularly from Iraola’s side. Incidentally, the referee for Saturday’s game Darren Bond has brandished 21 yellow cards in only 4 matches so far, an average of 5.25 per game.
Top pick: Over 4.5 cards at 4/5 with bet365
The Total Cards market is where I want to take the sole bet in this 3pm Saturday kick-off with over 4.5 cards best priced at 4/5 with
bet365
being the selection.
The Cherries have received the majority of their yellow cards on their travels and the way Brentford head coach Frank likes to play balls in behind the opposition defence. Therefore, I think there could be a few cards being dealt out by the man in the middle.
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Brentford vs Bournemouth Best Bet
- Market:
Total Cards
- Selection:
Over 4.5
- Odds:
4/5
- Stake:
1pt
- Bookie:
bet365
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