Key Points
- Anything less than 3pts is a failure for Bees
- Can the Saints score their first PL goal this season?
- Corners market holds the key to value bet
Brentford host Southampton this Saturday afternoon, with Russell Martin’s team still yet to score or earn a point from their two league games after narrow 1-0 defeats away at Newcastle and at home to Nottingham Forest so far.
Thomas Frank’s Brentford, now in their 4th consecutive top-flight season, beat Crystal Palace 2-1 in their opening game at the G-Tech but lost 2-0 away at Liverpool last time out. Both teams will look at this game and see it as winnable, I believe there is an opportunity to back the winner of the game at a value price but think there is a superior bet available in a sub-market.
Coaches with style
The Saints have a defined style of play under Martin which has so far been successful with them winning promotion back to the Premier League via the play-offs. And I expect this possession-rich approach to continue into this campaign.
Brentford, despite not playing with the same philosophy as Southampton every week, know what it takes to get results at this level and are a ‘streetwise’ team. I feel that Martin’s Southampton would love to emulate the Bees’ style as they try and establish and maintain themselves amongst the elite in English football again.
Toney a loss but Bees no one-man team
Striker Ivan Toney has been left out of both match-day squads so far amidst strong transfer rumours linking the 28-year-old with a move away from West London. Toney would undoubtedly be a big loss for Brentford but Frank’s team has shown in the two games this season and during his 8-month ban last term that they can more than cope without him.
Yoane Wissa has stepped up to the plate in Toney’s absence, and done a decent job.
There have been additions for Frank that he’ll hope can plug the gap in goals and assists that Toney leaves behind. Carvalho from Liverpool, and more recently Nunes from Gremio, can certainly contribute to the already exciting attack of Mbuemo, Wissa and Schade.
Set pieces a difference maker
To call The Bees a ‘set piece team’ would be doing them a disservice. Yes they can be quite direct and certainly move the ball from back to front faster than Southampton, but they play some attractive football too.
They are a very cohesive side with the majority of the players having been together for two or three seasons now. Frank’s side like to utilise and even pride themselves on their set pieces and in particular corners.
This could well be the route to deciding the result of this game. Brentford averaged 4.84 corners per match in the 23/24 campaign and after two games this term they have gained 8; 4 in each of their matches.
That’s 4 corners against Liverpool at Anfield, so I like the chances of the Bees registering more on Saturday.
Uncomfortable afternoon for Saints’ rearguard
On the flip side to Brentford’s corner exploits, Southampton have conceded a combined 13 corners in their two fixtures in the Premier League so far. A rather concerning 10 at home to Forest and 3 away at Newcastle who had 10 men for over an hour of the game.
This means The Saints currently have the 5th highest number of corners conceded in the Premier League so far this season. To me, this suggests that Brentford can work the channels, get crosses into the box and force the Saints' defence back, which could lead to the frequent concession of corners from either blocks or shots at goal.
“Get it in the mixer!”
A Brentford win at 4/5 with
QuinnBet
drew my attention and I wouldn’t put anybody off this. On my model, they should be closer to 4/6 than 4/5 but again I just failed to quite see as much value in this bet as I did with the final selection.
Instead, I am opting for the Team Total Corners market, where Brentford are 5/6 with
Unibet
to have Over 5.5 corners.
As the home side, and even though Saints may have plenty of the ball, I would still expect The Bees to make life uncomfortable for Southampton’s backline. I envisage a lot of high balls into the box and crosses from wide, creating corners that will likely panic the Saints’ rearguard.
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Brentford v Southampton Best Bet
Best Bet
- Market:
Team Total Corners
- Selection:
Brentford Over 5.5
- Odds:
5/6
- Stake:
1pt
- Bookie:
Unibet
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