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Best Betting Sites UK / The Fund Betting Tips, Analysis & Predictions / Brighton v Arsenal: Anyone For Some Seaside Spite? 06/04/2024

Brighton v Arsenal: Anyone For Some Seaside Spite? 06/04/2024

Publish Date:05/04/2024
Fact checked by: James Leeland
Key Points
  • Just 3 points separate the Top 3
  • Expecting a close competition and plenty of cards
  • Referee John Brooks is averaging over 4 yellow cards per game

Just three points separate 1st and 3rd in the Premier League table and Arsenal are right in the thick of this title battle. They sit just two points off top spot and are currently a best price of 11/4 with several bookies and a touch over 3/1 on the Betfair exchange, you can see the exact standings below.

A Tight Premier League Title Race

top 3 Premier League standings as of 5th April 2024

If they were to get the job done this would be their first Premier League trophy since the 03/04 season. Their run in is probably the trickiest with Villa (H), Chelsea (H), Spurs (A) and Man United (A) still to be played in their remaining eight matches. They also have home and away Champions League quarter-finals against Bayern Munich over the next fortnight.

Up next though it’s a trip to the coast to take on Brighton. The Seagulls have proved a tricky opponent for The Gunners over the last four fixtures with two wins a piece. Impressively they’ve also only lost one game at home this season, to give that context only Man City and Liverpool have lost fewer.

Roberto De Zerbi’s men achieve such results with a combination of a talented recruitment set-up, good coaching and a physical edge. It’s that physical edge that interests me for a bet. Brighton rank as the 4th worst team in the league in terms of disciplinary. They’ve had the 4th highest amount of yellows (77) and equal highest for straight reds (3).

roberto de zerbi

Will Arsenal Get a Little More Hot Under The Collar This Week?

Arsenal on the other hand have been the ‘fairest’ team this term with lowest number of yellows (43) and just one straight red. That being said, could we expect in a tough away game that they may struggle in, this close to the end of the season with every point vital that a little frustration might creep in? I think it’s fair to assume this game if played 100 times could see them generate a little more than their average card count.

So, there’s the basis of the argument. Brighton are likely to rack up bookings as they often do and Arsenal should produce at least their average if not a touch higher. We can see that in the last four games between the two teams there have been totals of 4, 3, 6 and 4 cards (all yellow). Of those 17 cards, Brighton have received 10. Additional support to the idea of there being plenty of cards here comes in the shape of the referee. Here are referee John Brookes stats this season when officiating Prem games.

Appearances18
Fouls per game22.61
Fouls/Tackles0.61
Penalties per game0.22
Yellow Cards79
Red Cards per game0.22
Red Cards4

Why Backing Cards In This Game Makes Sense

  • We have a referee who is averaging over 4 yellows per game and 0.22 reds per game.
  • The four most recent H2H meetings have seen the teams combine for an average 4.25 yellows per game.
  • Brighton have averaged 2.5 yellows in the 4 most recent games with Arsenal.
  • Brighton have averaged 2.56 yellows per game this season.

Brighton v Arsenal Best Bet

Bet Type: Bet Builder

Bookie: Betfair Sportsbook 

Selection(s): Over 1.5 Brighton cards & Over 3.5 Match Cards

Odds: 8/13

Stake: 3pts

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For more advice check out all the best betting tips for this weekend and don't forget to see  the very best betting offers for this weekend.

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