
Fabian Hurzeler’s Brighton host rivals Crystal Palace on Sunday afternoon looking for their first win in 4 matches after dropping two points in the 2-2 draw at Leicester having conceded two late goals.
The Seagulls are still handily placed in the league in 7th position and trail 4th-placed Manchester City by only 3 points ahead of the fixture at the AMEX. Hurzeler’s side are also one of just 3 teams still yet to taste defeat on home soil this campaign, taking 13 points from a possible 21.
Oliver Glasner’s Palace come into the game unbeaten in 4 in the PL. However, despite putting together a mini-undefeated run they still find themselves just above the dreaded relegation zone in 17th, 4 points above 18th-placed Ipswich.
The problem is clear, it’s just 1 win in 6 for The Eagles and only 2 wins all term. Worryingly, Palace have only managed 1 clean sheet away from Selhurst Park so far this campaign.
Hurzeler’s men have conceded 6 goals in the 80th minute or later, costing them at least an extra 5 points. The latest of these blips came in their previous match away to Leicester after leading 2-0 going into the 86th minute.
But for this Brighton would be in the top 4 and will know they will need to be on their guard to avoid dropping more points to arch-rivals Palace this weekend.
The Seagulls themselves have had comeback wins at the AMEX against both Tottenham and Manchester City this term. Moreover, they managed an injury-time winner at home to Manchester United earlier in the season so they have character and fight.
Brighton are unbeaten and bouncing in front of their own fans this term with 3 wins and 4 draws from their 7 fixtures at the AMEX. They have scored in all but 1 home match this campaign and face a Palace side who have taken just 6 points from a possible 21 on the road so will fancy their chances of getting back to winning ways here.
Goals certainly haven’t been an issue for Brighton with Herzeler’s team 7th-top scorers in the PL and only failing to score once in their 15 league matches. Furthermore, in 9 of their 15 PL matches, Brighton have scored 2 or more goals. Across all competitions, this has happened in 12 of their 18 fixtures.
In contrast, goals have been hard to come by for Glasner’s Palace. In fact, The Eagles have only hit the back of the net this season 14 times and are the joint 2nd-lowest scorers in the league.
Palace have failed to score in 5 of their 15 league matches, that’s the league’s 3rd-worst record after Everton and Southampton. The South London outfit have only scored more than 1 goal in a game on 4 occasions this term in all PL games.
A popular way to approach this game from the general betting public will likely be the match result and both teams to score market.
The Seagulls have kept just one solitary clean sheet all season and Palace have just a single shutout to their name in their 7 away games. It therefore looks unlikely either side will be keeping the other team off the scoresheet during Sunday’s showdown.
bet365 are offering the best odds of 5/2 for a Brighton win and BTTS and given how in all 3 of their home wins and in 4 of Albion’s 6 victories they have conceded, the price does look fair and warrants a small wager.
The main selection I am tipping is simply for Brighton to win the match, best priced with QuinnBet at 10/11. I believe Brighton will have too much quality in the end and should dispatch The Eagles on their own patch.
Hurzeler's team still remain unbeaten at home and face a Palace side struggling for points on the road. As a result, I feel The Seagulls should dominate possession and create more chances. Overall, they are the more likely to send Glasner and his outfit back to the capital with yet more away day misery come full-time.
We give ourselves the cover with this bet in case of a Palace no show which they’ve thrown in a few times on the road so far this term. The fact that it’s a derby for these two will ensure the endeavour is there but they aren’t blessed with goalscorers.
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