Key Points
- Only 2nd time in Pep’s reign City have lost 3 on the spin
- Tricky game after a midweek European away trip
- Corners and cards the bets in the late Saturday game
Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City travel to the South Coast for the second consecutive weekend still reeling from 3 losses in a row. They’ll face a Brighton side still unbeaten at home this campaign.
City suffered their heaviest defeat since September 2020, when they lost 4-1 away at Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League in midweek and it’s only the 2nd time in Guardiola’s time in charge where they have lost 3 matches consecutively.
The Seagulls find themselves 8th in the table but just 2 points behind 4th-placed Chelsea in what has been another solid start to a PL season. Hurzeler’s side haven’t won any of their last 3 games in all competitions but are still one of only 4 teams yet to taste defeat in front of their own fans and they have scored in all games bar one this term.
Crisis or just a blip?
Talk of a crisis at Manchester City ten days ago would have felt surreal but after defeats to Tottenham in the League Cup, Bournemouth last weekend in the PL, and Sporting Lisbon on Tuesday there is outside noise of this being the case.
Pep’s side will need to address it on the pitch, Bernardo Silva and Pep himself admitted there are concerns internally but there are so many class acts that should be swept under the carpet. After all, City are two points behind leaders Liverpool heading into this weekend and will be looking to return to the summit of the table for a couple of hours at least if they can gain a victory here.
Pep has never lost 4 in a row as a manger
Head coach Guardiola has never lost 4 fixtures in a row in his managerial career and will know his side will have to be at their best to avoid this unwanted record. City are still in a fantastic position in the PL and have made another strong start to the season as they look to defend their title and hunt down a 7th championship in 8 campaigns.
So although it’s definitely a slump in form, it’s something they can get out of. During this period they’ve been adjusting to life without Rodri and have been playing without De Bruyne, who could return this weekend.
Seagulls will frustrate the visitors
This definitely looks like a tricky tie for City and arguably one of the more difficult fixtures they could have had on the back of their recent defeats.
The Seagulls have been playing some impressive football this term under the 31-year-old German coach Hurzeler and have been unlucky not to gain a few more points, with dominant displays against Ipswich and Wolves at home ending in draws instead of victories.
The Citizens have a growing injury list, with John Stones, Ruben Dias, Rodri, and Oscar Bobb amongst those still unavailable for City and perhaps this has taken its toll on the squad and run of form in the last few games.
Fish, chips and a smattering of goals?
When it comes to finding the net, neither of these sides has an issue. Brighton have scored in all but 1 of their fixtures and City haven’t failed to score in any of their PL games so far this campaign.
Similarly, Brighton have only kept 1 clean sheet at the AMEX, and City only 1 clean sheet on the road all season, so there could be goals for both teams in this one.
Hurzeler’s Brighton have scored in each of their last 8 games in all competitions and have found the net with 2 or more goals in 4 of their 5 PL matches at home.
Top scorer Danny Welbeck has been the go-to-man for The Seagulls this term with 6 goals in 10 appearances and for City it’s unsurprisingly the unmistakable Erling Haaland who is topping the scoring charts for Pep’s men.
City have had no issue with scoring goals this term but will know they will have to tighten up defensively going forward this season.
Fierce competition and frustration for City on the cards?
In what looks to be a key clash in the PL this weekend, I had to check on the Corners markets in the game market which have landed us winning bets in City games for the last two weeks running.
Given City have had the highest total number of corners for and conceded the least number of corners from the 10 games so far the Most Corners or Corners Handicap markets could be runners here.
Add to that Brighton who have only had the 12th most corners but conceded the 13th highest against, City to win the count at 1/2 with Betfair Sportsbook looks a fair bet if a little conservative.
Over 6.5 away total corners at 7/5 with Betfair Sportsbook
Away Total Corners is the exact market that’s served us so well over the last two City games in the league, we’ve taken over 8.5 corners on those occasions but this week we can play over 6.5 corners at 7/5 with
Betfair Sportsbook
and that looks very solid value in a game in which City could well trail and increase their corner count due to game state.
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Over 4.5 total cards at 5/6 with bet365
My favourite selection for the match though is the over 4.5 total cards at 5/6 with
bet365, which has some real value in it.
Herzeler’s side have collected 30 yellow cards from their 13 games in all competitions this term, an average of 2.3 cards per game with 21 of these 30 coming at the AMEX.
Meanwhile, for Pep’s City this figure is 20 yellow cards from their 10 PL fixtures, with Mateo Kovacic and goalkeeper Ederson being shown the most with 3 yellows. The key point to add is the determination both sides will have to press the opponent in possession.
There will be attempts to play from the back against a high press and that will lead to possible counters and plenty of pulling back/chopping down style challenges which are usually guaranteed a booking. Players who aren’t used to losing tend to resent it and there could be an extra aggressiveness in City given their current form.
Of course with a cards bet we need to check the referee and luckily for us, Jarred Gillet has produced an average of 6.5 cards in his Premier League games this year.
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Brighton vs Manchester City Best Bet
- Market:
Total Cards
- Selection:
Over 4.5
- Odds:
5/6
- Stake:
1.25pts
- Bookie:
bet365
- Market:
Away Total Corners
- Selection:
Over 6.5
- Odds:
7/5
- Stake:
1pt
- Bookie:
Betfair Sportsbook
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