Key Points
- Different approaches to Europe a factor
- Wealth of attacking talent to strike
- Solid tip that can form part of a profitable Sunday
3rd placed Chelsea host 8th-placed Aston Villa on Sunday afternoon with just 3 points separating the sides in the table.
Enzo Maresca has taken to life at Stamford Bridge like a duck to water, with The Blues losing just 2 of their first dozen PL fixtures and are also 3rd top scorers in the league.
Despite having a more than decent start to the campaign, Unai Emery’s Villa are without a win in 7 in all competitions and have failed to pick up 3 points in any of the last 4 in the PL, losing 2 of their last 3.
Villa have kept just 1 clean sheet in the league all season, none of which have come away from Villa Park in their 6 matches on the road, with the defence a concern as they try to mount another assault on the Champions League places.
Magic Maresca has the potion
Given the turmoil and off-field antics at Stamford Bridge in recent seasons, it’s even more commendable how Maresca has got The Blues all singing from the same hymn sheet so quickly since taking charge in the summer.
Chelsea have only failed to score once all season in the PL and that was in the opening weekend defeat to Manchester City. Moreover, the West Londoners have scored in 18 of their 20 matches in all competitions.
Jackson is a Thriller in front of goal
Striker Nicolas Jackson looks rejuvenated under the Italian coach, who along with Cole Palmer has bagged 7 goals and also has 3 assists to his name already. The Senegalese forward has scored 3 in his last 5 appearances in the PL and has found his shooting boots in a Chelsea shirt and looks set to beat the 14 goals he managed last season.
Disintegrating defence for Villains
It’s not difficult to pinpoint what has been the reason for Villa’s inconsistency so far this season, with Emery’s side one of only 6 teams yet to keep a clean sheet on their travels.
In fact, they haven’t kept a clean sheet in the league since a 0-0 draw with Manchester United in early October and are a long way off reaching the 8 shut-outs they achieved last season.
Leaky backline could give Villa the winter Blues
Aston Villa have the 6th-worst defence in the league so far, letting in 19 goals and away from home they have the joint-5th leakiest backline, conceding 11 goals in 6 games away from Villa Park. This stat away from home is only 3 less than Wolves, Leicester and Ipswich who have each conceded 14.
This is something which must be addressed if they are to have a chance of European football again next term. Given Chelsea’s consistency in finding the back of the net, I feel it could be another desperate day for the Villa defence at Stamford Bridge.
The Blues have scored in 11 consecutive PL games, a run which I certainly don’t see ending in Sunday’s showdown.
European adventure a tiring one?
The remarkable success of last season’s incredible achievement of qualifying for the Champions League can’t be understated. However, it’s perhaps come at the expense of this campaign’s league form.
Emery’s men are 6 points worse off after 12 games than they were in the 2023/2024 season and have dropped 7 points from winning positions this term.
Chelsea’s contrasting sucess
By contrast, The Blues are 6 points better off than they were at this same stage last year, so the differing fortunes are plain to see. Chelsea have chosen to almost completely change their starting 11 for European matches while Villa have understandably been attacking the premier European club competition with maximum effort and their best team.
Villa to be left feeling Blue
With both current form and defensive woes for Aston Villa, it looks difficult to see Emery and his side leaving Stamford Bridge with a victory.
Chelsea are best priced at 3/4 with Betway to collect maximum points in Sunday’s showdown and that will appeal to many. However, I feel the price is too short, my model had them a 10/11 shot.
Why 3/4 is too short a price for the Chelsea win
Maresca’s team have suffered just 1 defeat in their last 10 PL fixtures and are 2nd only behind Liverpool for the number of points gained in the last 10 games. By contrast, Villa are 3rd bottom for current form over the last 6 games and have just 1 win to their name from the last half dozen matches.
Despite Aston Villa’s poor current run of form, they have managed 3 wins and a draw from their 6 games away from home. This and the fact Chelsea have failed to win 4 of their 6 games on home soil is enough to put me off tipping The Blues to come out on top with enough confidence in this one at the price being offered.
Slightly better value: Chelsea win + BTTS at 2/1 with bet365
Taking Chelsea to win and both teams to score, best priced at 2/1 with bet365 was closer to meeting my requirements for a bet. The stats show Chelsea not having kept a clean sheet at Stamford Bridge and in 83% of their home games both teams have scored.
Likewise, Villa are still waiting for their first clean sheet on the road and both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches.
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Top tip: Over 1.5 total home team goals at 4/7 with bet365
Instead of having to trust Chelsea to win, my attention turned to the number of goals both Chelsea have scored and Villa have conceded when deciding the best bet for this match.
Villa have conceded 2 or more goals in each of the last 3 PL matches and a total of 8 goals in these fixtures. Furthermore, they have shipped an average of just under 2 goals per game on their travels, which doesn’t bode well for when they visit West London.
From a Blues perspective, they’ve scored 2 or more goals on 5 separate occasions in the top flight already and in over half of their matches in all competitions. Chelsea to score over 1.5 goals is best priced at 4/7 with
bet365
and I envisage this consistency to find the net stretching into a 12th consecutive Premier League match come full-time.
Against a shaky Villa defence who seem to have forgotten to keep a clean sheet, especially away from their home ground, it looks to be a strong bet the boys in blue will score a few on Sunday.
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Chelsea vs Aston Villa Best Bet
- Market:
Total Home Goals
- Selection:
Over 1.5
- Odds:
4/7
- Stake:
1.25pts
- Bookie:
bet365
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