Best Betting Sites UK / The latest sports news with betting.co.uk / The Fund Betting Tips, Analysis & Predictions / Collingwood v Carlton Betting Tips

Collingwood v Carlton Betting Tips: Celebrating a legend with the old enemy

The Fund

InstagramTumblr

The Fund

Publish Date: 01/08/2024

Fact checked by: James Leeland

Key Points

Lose and the dream is over for the Pies
Top 4 position at risk for the Blues
One of the all-time greats plays his 400th

Collingwood and AFL legend Scott Pendlebury has played down his 400-game milestone ahead of the monster clash between the old enemies on Saturday night. The fact is that this game will be the biggest of the year in terms of attendance at the MCG and with finals repercussions for both teams, and it should be an absolute belter of an occasion.

Pies in our good books

The Pies did us a good turn last week when landing our 1.5-pt on them to beat Richmond by 1-39. That was a game they were expected to win and they enter this match now knowing that they will likely need a minimum of 3 wins from their last 4 games to make finals and have any hope of defending their title from last year. They will likely be underdogs their next 3 and will only be marginal favourites against Melbourne in Round 24.

After another loss last weekend against Port, Carlton will be getting concerned about their top 4 position and the huge chance that affords you compared to finishing 5th - 8th. It’s now 3 losses in their last 4 games and no team has ever dropped 4 in the final 8 of the regular season and gone on to win a flag. There are certain metrics they are still excelling in, like scoring from turnover, but they are conceding so heavily from defensive 50 stoppages that Michael Voss will be looking to address that issue pronto.

aussie rules grandstand

Cautious approach with so much at stake?

With so much riding on this game, it’s understandable that it might tighten up and will surely rank very high in terms of pressure early. That tends to lend itself to lower scoring, and if forced to choose over or under 169.5 points at Bet365 I’d be leaning to the under. The best value, however, sits in a slightly more obscure market.

With the aforementioned tight nature, the fact that the 12.5pt underdogs know this is do or die and the possibility they could play up 1% in their hero’s 400th, I believe Collingwood will prove very competitive here. In 4 of their last 6 games, the winning margin has been under 25 points with another at 27pts.

The Blues have also played in several tight ones and they have 4 of their last 6 separated by less than 25 points. Indeed their last 4 games have seen winning margins of 14, 19, 14 and 12.

Either team to win by 24 or less at Unibet (10/13)

Given those numbers, the occasion, and the fact there is so much on this game, I believe there will be no rolling over and I expect both teams to be committed to the death. Backing either team to win by 24 or less at 10/13 with Unibet seems a prudent way to go about this game.

In the unlikely event of a draw, we’ll also get paid out. One final point, you should tune in to this one. It’ll be shown Saturday morning on TNT Sports 1 at 10:30 BST. This will be a great advert for Australian Rules Football.