Collingwood v Richmond Betting Tips: A battle of rancid form lines

It would take even the most one-eyed Collingwood supporter to actually think they’ll make the finals this year. It’s quite the fall from grace for last year’s Champions.

Yes, they’ve suffered injuries but the majority of those who have played, have been a bit off the pace, both as individuals and as a collective. You can count on one hand the number of players who’ve even played to last year’s levels, let alone improved.

They are dealing in the mathematically possible card room currently in terms of making the 8 - not somewhere you wanna be!

Dodgy short priced favourites

The market makes the Pies strong favourites to get the chocolates on Sunday against a poor Richmond team with only 2 wins this season. The best industry odds available for Collingwood are 1/4. I don’t like the idea of wading into a team in such poor form at those cramped odds, even against the Tigers.

That aforementioned form for Collingwood looks like this:

• 2 wins from last 7
• 1 of those a 1pt victory over then bottom-placed North Melbourne
• Lost their last 4 matches
• Lost their most recent match by 66 points

Can the battling Tigers last 4 quarters?

Richmond has only won 2 matches this campaign but there have been signs of another win coming before the season ends. That may well be next week against North Melbourne, but can they be competitive in this one? I think so.

They’ve lost their last 6 but when you take a closer look at the quarter-by-quarter scores and even overall margins, there are some positives to take.

Final quarters have been Richmond’s downfall

The final quarters have hurt Richmond, being competitive for a half or 3 quarters is within them. If they were indeed ahead at 3QT in this one, the Pies would be getting pretty twitchy even with their late-game history.

They’ve lost their last 7 matches by an average of 37.5 points, but some context can be applied. 5 of those losses have been against the current top 8, and another against the in-form side of the competition, Hawthorn.

Is there any real reason to think they’d lose by a bigger margin to Collingwood? I can’t find one.

Lock in on the value bet at Betfair

With the above taken into consideration, backing a Collingwood victory but by less than 40 points looks prudent at odds against. The best odds with UK bookies are 11/10 with Betfair . This smacks of real value as I’d make that closer to a 4/5 shot with all the statistics available.

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Collingwood v Richmond Best Bet

Best Bet

• Market: Winning Margin
• Selection: Collingwood 1-39pts
• Odds: 11/10
• Stake: 1.5pts
• Bookie: Betfair

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