Key Points
- Greece can offer some sort of resistance
- Carsley to continue his steady start
- Fitting Jude, Phil and Cole back in?
Interim England head coach Lee Carsley will be looking to make it 3 wins from 3 since taking charge when the Three Lions host Greece at Wembley on Thursday night. He’s been in the position since Gareth Southgate’s departure following the Euro 2024 final defeat to Spain in July.
Carsley led England to two 2-0 victories in his previous matches away to the Republic of Ireland and against Finland at home last month and will be keen to follow that steady start with another win.
England currently sit 2nd in Nations League Group B2, level on points with Thursday’s opponents Greece who have only lost once in their last 6 international fixtures and have won their last 3 matches without conceding a goal.
Surprise call-ups and omissions
The interim head coach has already alluded to mixing the squad up for future games following September’s victories, but there are some curious omissions for these fixtures.
I feel players like Eberechi Eze and James Maddison will feel disappointed at not being selected this time round, particularly Maddison who has started the season well. Harry Maguire and surprisingly the versatile Jarrod Bowen have also been omitted from the 25-man squad.
Meanwhile, Morgan Rogers has still been left with the 21s which might not be a total shock given Carsley’s former role. The Villa man has impressed everyone who has watched his side this season and is the apple of many a Fantasy Premier League manager’s eye.
Solanke and Gibbs-White included in the squad
Inclusions for Nottingham Forest’s Morgan Gibbs-White and Tottenham’s Dominic Solanke are two faces England fans won’t be familiar with seeing wearing the famous shirt. They both have just the 1 England cap but both are likely to be able to feature during October.
It’s been a long 7 years between drinks in the case of Solanke and if he can impress he basically takes the squad position of Ivan Toney, who has likely kissed goodbye to an international career following the move to Saudi Arabia.
Greece no pushovers
Serbian Ivan Jovanovic is the current manager of Greece and much like Carsley has won both of his games in charge of the national side since taking the post in August after Gus Poyet’s exit.
Most of the squad called up for the game against England will be relatively unknown to most England fans (the majority playing in the Greek Super League). However, they are no mugs and are a team who have gathered a solid run of results with only 1 defeat in 90 minutes this calendar year, which was a 2-1 defeat to Germany in an international friendly.
A tough defence for England to break down
Although Greece are currently ranked 48th in the FIFA World Rankings, they have only failed to score once in the last 8 matches. In their last game against Finland, they were forced to be patient and both their goals came in the 2nd half.
I feel Carsley’s side will have to have similar patience to try and wear down their opponents under the Wembley arch. A low block is to be expected from Greece who under previous management employed the same tactics when playing as an away underdog.
Three Lions to win but where’s the value?
Despite Greece being in decent enough form it’s still hard to envisage them taking anything from this trip to London.
I believe England will have too much firepower not to overcome their opponents. With the likes of Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden and Cole Palmer back in the ranks after missing September fixtures, whoever plays the match and starts in the 10 position should be more than good enough.
England are at cramped odds so I won’t be suggesting just steaming into the best-priced 2/7 with
QuinnBet. That being said, I do want to be with the home side in some shape or form given the massive mismatch in skill levels.
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England win-to-nil better carries a bit too much risk
Given the Three Lions’ solid defensive displays in both of Lee Carsley’s matches so far, a betting market of interest is the ‘To Win To Nil’ where England are offered at best odds of 10/11 with
Star Sports.
There is an element of uncertainty with this for me though and I feel like there is a slightly better chance of landing our chosen selection. Greece have only failed to score in 2 of their last 11 games stretching back to September 2023 and with changes in the England back-line there is a possibility they knick one.
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England win + Under 3.5 goals at 10/11 with Ladbrokes
I would instead focus on the ‘Match Result and Over/Under 3.5 goals’ market with an England win and under 3.5 goals best priced at 10/11 with
Ladbrokes
grabbing my attention.
Greece have shipped just 2 goals in their last 6 international matches and England very rarely hammer sides. In England’s last 15 fixtures, over 3.5 goals has only occurred once this time, a 2-2 draw with Belgium back in March of this year.
For Greece, this has only happened twice in their last 10 internationals so the omens look good for this to pay out come full-time. This bet’s been a good money spinner for me over the last few years watching and betting on England and looks well worth another go on Thursday.
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England vs Greece Best Bet
- Market:
Match Result and Over/Under 3.5 goals
- Selection:
England and Under 3.5 goals
- Odds:
10/11
- Stake:
1pt
- Bookie:
Ladbrokes
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