Key Points
- England now have the group at their mercy after winning on Thursday
- Ireland set to try and play a spoiler
- The gulf in class should result in a comfortable night at the back
England navigated a potentially difficult game and moved to the top of Nations League Group B2 after a commanding and convincing performance away at Greece on Thursday night. That puts them in control of the group ahead of their final game against Ireland at Wembley this Sunday.
A first-half strike from Ollie Watkins was followed up in the 2nd half by an own goal from Greece keeper Odysseas Vlachodimos and a classy finish from debutant Curtis Jones to secure a comfortable 3-0 victory in Lee Carsley’s penultimate match in charge.
Heimir Hallgrimsson’s Ireland secured a 1-0 win at home to Finland at the Aviva Stadium thanks to Evan Ferguson’s header, a result which guarantees them 3rd place in the group. If The Three Lions can claim victory at Wembley, they will be certain to finish as group winners, although Ireland will be doing everything they can to spoil the party.
Roaring back!
Since the embarrassing defeat suffered at the hands of Greece at Wembley in October, Carsley has made sure it was just a blip, with subsequent convincing victories away at Finland and in Athens avenging that loss.
England have the best defence in their group, conceding just 3 goals and are also top scorers with 11 goals from their 4 matches, including 6 in their last 2 games. It would be a perfect way for interim head coach Carsley to sign off his tenure if England can do the job on Sunday and finish the group top of the pile.
Selection redemption
Some of the mass changes to the squad against Greece were enforced due to players withdrawing through injury. However, credit has to be given to Carsley for getting his selection right and his decision of who to pick for the starting 11.
His choice to start Watkins ahead of Harry Kane was justified after only 7 minutes when the Aston Villa striker opened the scoring and he may well be given another start against the Irish on Sunday.
Players like Curtis Jones, Noni Madueke and Lewis Hall relished their chance to perform for The Three Lions. To his credit, Carsley can take huge praise for giving these players a chance despite their lack of experience at international level with England looking far more cohesive in this system.
In fact a half-time switch around in defence when Hall replaced Konsa brought about an even more solid-looking setup.
Ireland coach has conquered England before
Hallgrimsson, who was joint manager of Iceland when they famously knocked Roy Hodgson’s England out of Euro 2016, will be looking for another shock result against The Three Lions. Since taking over in July of this year, the Icelander has overseen 2 victories and 3 defeats in the Nations League so far.
It’s been inconsistent but still early days as he puts his stamp on the Ireland squad ahead of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers.
Ireland do possess a keeper in Caoimhin Kelleher in the form of his life in recent weeks. Since the injury to Alisson, Kelleher has stepped up for his club Liverpool, and produced a man-of-the-match display against Finland on Thursday night so I’m sure will be out to impress again at Wembley.
Proud Lions in defence
England have looked fairly solid defensively since Carlsey took up the reins after Euro 2024. The side have kept 3 clean sheets from their 5 group fixtures so far and only let in 3 goals in the process, with shutouts in both matches at Wembley.
This has been a real foundation on which Carsley has built, and with the team looking much more cohesive in Athens the other night, perhaps the interim boss has finally got the balance just right.
This leads me nicely into the various markets for Sunday’s showdown. I feel England have found their groove again after wins in their last 2 games and my strong expectation is England will win the game pretty comfortably. However, at a best-priced 1/4 with Coral, there really isn’t much value in betting this due to the short odds in my opinion.
Instead, I am looking at getting with England through sub-markets. I don’t particularly like 4/5 about the “half-time/full-time England England” result but given England have won 3 of their 4 games by leading at half-time, including the 2-0 victory over Ireland in Dublin, I can understand why bookmakers are being defensive there.
Team news vital for certain tips
Writing an article and backing scorers or individual players at this moment (Friday afternoon) is not a great idea due to the highly volatile nature of the line-up. It’s pretty hard to predict more than half the team with any certainty so these markets were ruled out from a tipping perspective.
Morgan Rogers is worth a look if he starts
With team news there may well be opportunities and if Morgan Rogers were to start I would be somewhat interested in him both being fouled and making a foul. He plays with a commendable energy and when he got on for his first senior minutes, he just looked like he may be trying a little too hard.
Constantly taking on players and not being afraid to be physical are hallmarks of his game and the bet is worthy of consideration if starting. Not many bookies have added the markets to their BetBuilder yet but at
Betfair Sportsbook
it’s currently 8/11. I would expect better to be available come team news time on Sunday and think it’s a bet at Evens.
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England to win to nil at 4/5 with bet365
Instead, my tip for this final Nations League Group match is for England To Win To Nil. I can’t overlook how solid England have been defensively on the whole in this campaign and don’t see their backline coming under much threat from Ireland during the game.
The fact The Green Army have only managed to score 3 times in their 5 fixtures despite some ordinary opposition says to me there is a real lack of goal threat and I envisage The Three Lions defenders could well be in for an easy evening on Sunday. I respect Evan Ferguson but I’m not sure the team will be able to create enough for him in the extremely tricky setting of Wembley Stadium.
bet365
are offering the best odds on England to win with a clean sheet to boot at 4/5. Given the strong defence, more balanced shape to the team now and the lack of goals Ireland offer, I’m happy to take this route to back England.
Also, I would like to see Carsley finish his reign in charge with a victory, another clean sheet and ending the campaign as group winners.
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Bet £10 & Get £30.
England vs Ireland Best Bet
- Market:
To Win To Nil
- Selection:
England
- Odds:
4/5
- Stake:
1pt
- Bookie:
bet365
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