Key Points
- Tight affair when two solid units collide
- Don’t expect thrills and spills
- 2 BetBuilder tips at ⅚ and 13/10 respectively
4th-placed Nottingham Forest travel to Merseyside on Sunday looking for their 5th PL win in a row and 6th victory from the last 7 games in the league.
Forest have been flying and Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are the form team over the last half dozen games, taking 15 points from a possible 18 and have the 3rd best away record this season. The Reds have already acquired their highest top-flight total at this stage of a season since 1987 and will be looking to add to this further.
On the other hand, Sean Dyche’s Everton find themselves 15th in the table having won just 3 of their 17 PL matches this term. Despite a 4-match unbeaten streak, 3 of these have been draws and The Toffees are just 3 points above the relegation zone after taking just 9 points from a possible 27.
Everton have failed to score in 4 of their 8 matches at Goodison Park, the worst ratio of any side this term, and away from home haven’t found the net in 5 of their 9 fixtures, the joint-worst along with Southampton.
Thou shalt not pass!
It’s fair to say both sides are set up to be both resolute and structured in their formations as well as difficult to break down. Particularly Nottingham Forest who seem to have struck a balance between a solid defence yet remaining a goal threat at the other end.
In contrast to Dyche’s men’s struggle for goals, Forest have only failed to score 3 times this campaign. The Toffees, on the other hand, are the 2nd-lowest scorers with just 15 goals and have only scored a single goal in their last 4 matches.
Two clean sheet specialists
Clean sheets have been the basis for both teams this term, with both Everton’s Jordan Pickford and Forest’s Matz Sels keeping a joint-league-high 7 shut-outs.
Only Merseyside neighbours Liverpool and title-chasing Arsenal can match the number of clean sheets these two have kept so far. For me, this signifies the focus both managers have placed on tactical organisation and formation.
In contrast to Everton’s rigidity in their style of play, Forest pose more of a threat going forward. Particularly away from the City Ground on the counterattack when they break with pace on the wings with Anthony Elanga and Callum Hudson-Odoi leading the charge.
However, despite their lack of wins this season, Everton have actually drawn 8 of the 17 PL matches they’ve played and have only been beaten twice on home soil. Their last defeat at Goodison Park was back at the end of August against Bournemouth.
Sour taste for Toffees?
The fact Everton have only managed to score more than 1 goal in a game on 5 occasions speaks volumes about their lack of firepower. The Blues have only managed to score 2 or more goals once in the last 9 PL matches.
Alarmingly, Dyche’s side have failed to hit the back of the net in 6 of the last 8 in the league. Against a confident Forest in fine form who have won the last 4, I feel it could be an uncomfortable afternoon for struggling Everton.
When analysing the markets available for this clash, it’s difficult to look much beyond any bets pertaining to it being a low-scoring affair and/or leaning toward another victory for Nuno’s Forest.
Forest draw no bet and double chance markets
Firstly, Nottingham Forest in the Draw No Bet market at Evens with
Unibet
does look appealing, especially given they are chasing their 5th consecutive win and 8th win from the last 11 PL games.
Similarly, the Forest-Draw Double Chance at 1/2 with
bet365
looks a reasonable starting point for a BetBuilder. Particularly when you consider Forest have only been beaten once in the last 6 and Everton have only won once in the last 9.
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Forest win + under 3.5 goals at 13/5 with Betfair Sportsbook
A Forest win and the game to have under 3.5 goals also caught my attention. The attractive stand-out best price of 13/5 available with
Betfair Sportsbook
does look to be good value, in particular with the fact 71% of Everton’s matches and 78% of Nottingham Forest’s fixtures have ended with 3 or less goals.
The tonic to the excitement of that bet lies in the fact that Dyche’s Everton haven’t lost in any of the last 6 at home and have also picked up valuable draws away at both Manchester City and Arsenal as well as at home to Chelsea recently.
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Main pick: Under 3.5 goals + Forest/Draw at 5/6 with bet365
My main pick for this one is to simplify matters and combine under 3.5 goals and Forest Double Chance with
bet365
which gives us an eye-catching price of 5/6. Considering 9 of the last 11 of
Everton’s matches have been under 2.5 goals and 3 of Forest’s last 6 have produced this outcome, this gives a little bit of wiggle-room even if they should tip over onto 3 goals.
Furthermore, 4 of The Toffees last 5 on home soil have been under 3.5 goals and in fact even under 2.5 goals so for me there’s a strong chance this will be another low-scoring fixture for the Goodison Park faithful to endure.
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Moreover, with 59% of Everton’s matches across the season and 56% of Forest’s games ending up being under 2.5 goals, the odds are in favour of a repeat of this once again.
Goodison Park has been the site of the least amount of goals this season, with just 17 being scored either by Everton or the opposition and this trend looks likely to continue by full-time on Sunday.
Those stats have left me having to also place a smaller bet on the Double Chance + Under 2.5 goals too at 13/10.
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Everton vs Nottingham Forest Best Bet
- Market:
BetBuilder - Total Goals Over/Under & Double Chance
- Selection:
Under 3.5 & Forest/Draw
- Odds:
5/6
- Stake:
1pt
- Bookie:
bet365
- Market:
BetBuilder - Total Goals Over/Under & Double Chance
- Selection:
Under 2.5 & Forest/Draw
- Odds:
13/10
- Stake:
1.5pt
- Bookie:
bet365
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