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Finland v England Betting Tips: Three Lions to bounce back…eventually

Publish Date: 12/10/2024
Fact checked by: James Leeland
Key Points
  • “Experiment” over
  • Expect a more balanced Three Lions in Helsinki
  • Patience may be required for Carsley’s men

England will be looking to respond after their surprise 2-1 defeat to Greece on Thursday night when they take on Finland in Helsinki this Sunday.

Interim boss Lee Carsley succumbed to his first defeat since taking charge of the national team in an underwhelming performance against the Greeks at Wembley, in what was Greece’s first ever victory against England. Finland were also defeated on Thursday night when they lost 2-1 to the Republic of Ireland thanks to a late winning goal from Robbie Brady.

The loss to the Greeks leaves The Three Lions in 2nd place in the Nations League Group B2, 3 points behind their victors and leaders of the group. Meanwhile, Finland currently sit bottom of the group without a single point and have conceded 7 goals in their 3 fixtures so far.

Bounce-back-ability?

Carsley will be desperate for his England side to show some fight and react to their limp display which saw them manage just 2 shots on target on Thursday night. It will no doubt be the interim head coach’s biggest test to date, having won his previous two matches 2-0 against Ireland and Finland respectively.

Harry Kane’s absence a blow for the Three Lions

The more than likely absence of Harry Kane will once again be a blow for The Three Lions as will the injury suffered to Bukayo Saka which saw him leave the field in the 51st minute with a leg injury. In the reverse meeting at Wembley last month, Kane proved to be the difference as his two second half goals secured a 2-0 win for England.

If he is to miss the game in Helsinki it will be a setback for sure as the team looked clueless without a spearhead in attack on Thursday. I think the strategy of using no recognised striker will be scrapped and I would expect either Watkins or Solanke to get a start up front, the former would be the most likely.

Gareth Southgate ‘Conflicted’ About England Future

Stars align…or maybe they don’t?

Much criticism has been directed towards Carsley following the defeat to Greece, with a lot of fans and pundits alike calling the formation and team selection an ‘experiment’. Phil Foden, Cole Palmer, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka and Antony Gordon all started at Wemble. However, for me this felt like Carsley was trying to please all of the attacking talent and many fans by fitting them in somewhere and the balance to the team didn’t feel right.

Perhaps against Finland on Sunday a different formation might be the trick and with Saka definitely ruled out of the game there is going to be at least 1 change to the starting 11. I also expect Ollie Watkins to start the game after being on the bench last time out and potentially Chelsea’s Nedo Madueke showed enough to earn a starting place ahead of the injured Saka so changes should be in the offing.

I also feel you could drop any of the side that started against Greece besides Rico Lewis who did well I thought under the circumstances. Angel Gomes after impressing in September internationals could come into the midfield to make England harder to get at through the middle.

Finland finished?

Defeat for Markku Kanerva’s national side on Sunday would almost certainly consign Finland to bottom place of the Nations League group. With 1 goal scored and 7 conceded from their 3 matches so far it looks difficult to see anything other than a loss for them in this one.

With the majority of their squad plying their trade at mid-ranked teams across lesser European leagues, there is just a huge gulf in class when it comes to the skill level and experience of players. The exception to that is goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky who plays for Bayer Leverkusen but there isn’t really anyone who you could call a ‘big name’ in Finland’s ranks.

Teemu Pukki’s star is fading

Striker Teemu Pukki, who most English fans might know from his time at Norwich City, is the national side’s top scorer but at age 34 has been used more as a substitute in recent internationals. England should be able to keep a clean sheet on all available data but they looked very dodgy at the back Thursday including in goal with Jordan Pickford having a nightmare performance.

Ranked 64th in the FIFA World Rankings, Finland have just 1 win from their last 7 international matches this calendar year and have lost 4 out of their last 5 fixtures, so despite England’s disappointing performance against Greece I still expect The Three Lions to come out on top in this one, just about!

England to get the job done

Anything other than a victory would surely spell disaster for Carsley’s chances of becoming the England boss on a permanent basis but at a best price of 1/3 with bet365 for The Three Lions to win, I won’t be going near it after Thursday night’s display.

The ‘To Win To Nil’ market certainly bumps the price up. Given Finland’s solitary goal so far in their 3 Nations League matches, it looks unlikely that they might breach Carsley’s side who managed two clean sheets in their opening games. However, with the calamitous defending on show at Wembley the other night and how open England looked against Greece, it still feels a little short at 10/11 with Betfair Sportsbook.

Half-time/Full-time atr 3/1 with Star Sports

The ‘Half-time/Full-time’ market is where I’ve settled on in terms of a wager in this one. Draw/England is best priced 3/1 with Star Sports and for me, this offers some real value. When the sides met last month at Wembley it took until the 57th minute before England finally broke the deadlock and it wouldn’t surprise me again if patience is the key for England in Helsinki.
Following that unsettling performance on Thursday, I expect the calls will be for cool heads and not to try and force things. That can help with the bet and the Finns will naturally get more fatigued as the game goes as they will be inevitably defending for large periods of time.

Star Sports welcome offer: £25 Free Bet + 25 Free Spins.


Finland vs England Best Bet

  • Market: Half-time/Full-time
  • Selection: Draw/England
  • Odds: 3/1
  • Stake: 0.75pt
  • Bookie: Star Sports

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