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Football | Betting on the January transfer window

Publish Date: 05/01/2022
Fact checked by: James Leeland

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The January Transfer window has arrived, bringing with it the usual OTT coverage and non-stories that we’ve become accustomed to over the past decade or so. 

As a general rule, there aren’t many big moves in January, however, this window does bring some hope of genuine excitement.

Newcastle will be looking to splash their billions, and have already settled a £12m fee with Athletico Madrid for  English right-back Kieran Trippier.

Up in Scotland, Celtic have already secured the signings of three J-League players - a story so big in Japan that it was announced on train services across the country.

Everton have also secured Nathan Patterson from Rangers for a reported fee of £12m.

Betting on transfers - who could move?

It’s already been quite a busy transfer window thus far, but what looks to be most interesting is the fact that there are several high-profile players across Europe whose contracts are set to run out in the summer.

Included in this mouth-watering list of players are the likes of Killian Mbappe and Antonio Rudiger, both of whom have been linked with moves to Real Madrid.

Will their clubs allow the contracts to run down or will they look to cash in? There’s also the question of whether or not the two Spanish giants can actually afford to splash out on high-profile signings in the manner they have traditionally done in the past.

Additionally, we also have a number of players who are on the fringers of their squads and who are unhappy with their playing time. Could we see loan moves secured for the likes of Jesse Lingard and Gigi Wijnaldum?

Below, we’ve taken a look at the possible January transfer window moves and the odds being offered by the best UK bookmakers, including our current number one rated provider, Betfred.

You can check out the latest Betfred sign-up offer here today at Betting.co.uk.

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January transfer bets - the ones to look out for

Antonio Rudiger to Real Madrid

It’s no secret that Chelsea’s Antonio Rudiger has already been in talks over a potential move to Real Madrid.

The move looks to be inevitable, but the question is over when, not if it will happen.

Rudiger’s contract with Chelsea expires in the summer, and the chances of him signing a new one are almost zero.

Real Madrid would ideally like to wait until the summer, but there are reports that Chelsea would be keen to try and extort a free from the Spanish giants. Finding a replacement for such a formidable defender in January is no easy task, and so the move could hinge on Chelsea’s inbound business.

Still, at odds of 8/1, taking a punt on Rudiger to be a Real Madrid player after the January transfer window does look tempting.

Gini Wijnaldum’s Premier League return

Life hasn’t exactly worked out as planned for Gini Wijnaldum since he left Merseyside for Paris in the summer.

Since arriving at PSG on a free transfer, Gini has been left frustrated by his lack of game time, and it has been widely reported that the Dutchman is keen on a loan move, with the Premier League his most likely destination.

Returns to his former clubs Newcastle and Liverpool have been touted for months now, but there are reports coming out of the Emirates suggesting that Mikel Arteta is looking to act quickly and bring him to North London until the end of the season.

Newcastle is are still the bookies’ frontrunner to secure a loan deal at odds of 4/1, with moves to Arsenal and Liverpool priced at 6/1 and 8/1 respectively. 

Anthony Martial to Newcastle or Sevilla 

The paper talk is all about a potential swap deal with Barcelona that could see Ousmane Dembele come the other way.

However, the bookies’ odds have now drifted to 5/1 on the Frenchman moving to Camp Nou.

Instead, it looks like Newcastle and Sevilla are leading the race for Martials signature, with several UK bookies offering both clubs at 1/1 as his new destination come the end of the January window.

Ousmane Dembele to the Premier League

What’s perhaps most telling that the aforementioned swap deal between Manchester United and Barcelona isn’t going to happen, is the fact that most UK bookmakers no longer even have Manchester United shortlisted as a potential destination for Ousmane Dembele.

The Frenchman is linked with a Premier League move though, with (yes, you guessed it) Newcastle being the frontrunner for a loan deal at 9/2.

He’s also being offered at 8/1 for a surprise move to Liverpool and 16/1 to join Arsenal until the summer.

Ryan Kent to Aston Villa

Ryan Kent followed Steven Gerrard from Liverpool to Rangers, and the pair could be set to reunite once more at Villa Park.

Rangers will need to sell some players this January to balance the books, as they reported running financial losses at the start of the season. However, with automatic Champions League qualification being the prize for winning the Scottish Premiership this season, they won’t be keen to let too many of their key players go.

Nathan Patterson has already moved to Everton for £12m, and midfielder Joe Aribo has also been linked with a number of Premier League clubs.

Kent’s transfer to Villa will probably hinge on whether or not Joe Aribo and/or Alfredo Morelos make moves away from Ibrox. That’s why Unibet are pricing Kent at 1/20 on to remain a Rangers player.

Elsewhere though, you will find odds of 2/1 on Kent being a Villa Player come transfer deadline day, which could hint that some news on this one is forthcoming.

January transfer window bets - other moves to look out for

The headline of every article this transfer window could essentially be entitled - “Guess who Newcastle are linked with now!”

One of the most realistic targets for them is Dele Alli, who is being offered at 4/1 to make the move to the Northeast.

As we mentioned above, Rangers’ Joe Aribo could be on the move to the Premier League, with Crystal Palace, Brentford, Leicester City and Watford all linked with the midfielder.

West Ham are looking to strengthen their injury-plagued defense, with Liverpool’s Nathanial Phillips being their number one target.

Manchester United’s Jesse Lingard is once again being linked with a loan move back to West Ham, with some bookies offering him at 4/5 on to return to East London.

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January Transfer window - who’s staying put?

The January transfer window brings about a lot of speculation about players moving, but at the end of the day, the majority end up going nowhere.

So let’s take a look at those almost certain to stay put until the summer. 

Kylian Mbappe

Real Madrid tried to grab him in the summer for an enormous fee that was rejected by PSG.

With his contract set to run out in the summer, it’s almost certain that Los Blancos will wait until the summer to sign him on a free transfer, which is why he is 1/100 on with Unibet to stay at PSG this January.

You can back a longshot move to Real Madrid to happen during this window at 14/1. 

Harry Kane

He wanted to leave in the summer and they forced him to stay - and now you can expect a quiet January transfer window for Harry Kane.

Back in October, it looked to be almost inevitable that Manchester City would come back in for Harry Kane in January.

However, with City sitting 10 points clear at the top of the Premier League, it’s a big investment that they don’t really need to make. Additionally, the arrival of Antonio Conte looks to have reinvigorated Kane at Spurs - for now at least.

While it’s not quite as certain as Kylian Mbappe, Kane is 1/20 on with Unibet to remain a Spurs player come the end of the window.

Erling Haaland

This will be the transfer saga of the summer, but nothing will happen in January.

Erling Haaland is contracted at Borussia Dortmund until the summer of 2024, however, there is a £66m release clause that will come into effect this summer. This means that clubs will most definitely wait until the summer to battle it out for the Norwegian’s signature.

Haaland is 1/50 on to remain at Dortmund, but those odds should be much shorter in our opinion. 

Paul Pogba

You might be surprised to have not yet seen his name mentioned in this article, given that he is another high-profile player whose contract runs out in the summer.

Manchester United would ideally prefer to cash in on the talented, but egotistic and inconsistent Frenchman. However, the issue they have is that the two clubs most interested in him, Juventus and PSG, are more than happy to wait for his contract to expire in the summer.

Juventus, Pogba’s former club, are interested, but not in the best place financially, while PSG don’t really need him but would happily have him on board should there be no transfer fee.

Pogba is 1/40 on to remain a Macnehsert United player come the end of the January transfer window, but speculation about him resigning a contract or moving in the summer is bound to dominate the headlines throughout the first half of 2022.

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