Each week this season our
football betting analyst
Nathan Joyes will be highlighting five market movers that have caught his attention. This week, it's the return of the Nations League and international friendlies across the globe - but where's the money going? Let’s dive into the
betting prices
at BetMGM.
South Korea vs Ecuador
South Korea host Ecuador in Suwon and bettors are backing the hosts to succeed in their home environment. Ecuador head to Asia with a new head coach and coaching squad for the first time as Marcelo Gallardo takes charge - River Plate's most successful manager of all time.
Yet bettors believe that the squad will need time to adjust, and perhaps were a little underwhelmed with how La Tri performed in front of goal at the World Cup this summer.
A boost for South Korea will see both Son Heung-Min and Lee Kang-in return to the field together for the first time in over 100 days. Led by interim manager Robert Moreno, South Korea also decided to make a change after the World Cup who has previously coached at Barcelona, and that exciting appointment could see his new team start off with a win.
It'll likely be a close encounter, but bettors are supporting the hosts at odds-against knowing Ecuador often struggle in front of goal.
Odds: South Korea to win was 13/8 now 11/8
Kosovo vs Ireland
Kosovo and Ireland will meet for the first time in Nations League - League B - and it's once again the hosts receiving plenty of support in the build up to kick-off. Having lost just one of their last ten at home, winning seven of those, Kosovo also narrowly missed out on a spot at the World Cup after losing to Turkiye 1-0.
Ireland, however, haven't endured much luck in the Nations League. After finishing 3rd in their last four attempts, they required a play-off win against Bulgaria in order to keep their spot. They may well have Troy Parrott, who's made an incredible start to life in La Liga with Real Betis, but Ireland need more - especially in behind - if their record is to improve.
Six of Ireland's last nine matches have finished with two goals or less, and Kosovo will fancy their chances of nicking a goal and securing another home win. Now 7/5, there's still plenty of juice in their price.
Odds: Kosovo to win was 17/10 now 7/5
Bulgaria vs Luxembourg
Bulgaria may have put 10 past the Solomon Islands back in March but struggled against more realistic targets only three months ago. A 1-0 home loss against Montenegro was followed up with a 2-2 draw on the road against Moldova, and after a bitterly disappointing World Cup qualifying campaign, it's interesting to see the money come for them to beat Luxembourg.
However, the visitors, ranked 13 places behind Bulgaria in the FIFA rankings, head to Plovdiv full of hope after two wins over Malta and a 1-0 win against Albania on the road last time out. That's now two back to back wins on their travels for the first time since 2022, but having lost all but one of their eight matches on Bulgarian soil, bettors aren't convinced.
However, their only draw was the last time they clashed back in 2024, and although punters are siding with the hosts, there's not much to convince me to join them.
Odds: Bulgaria to win was 13/10 now 6/5
USA vs Peru
Peru may have failed to qualify for the World Cup, and have only won two of their last 18 matches, but there has been an eye-catching market move for the South Americans to spring a surprise on US soil.
It has been six years since these two nations last met, where they shared a 1-1 draw, and while they have only clashed 11 times, USA haven't beaten La Roja since 2000.
What is unusual about this international break is the fact the US have lined up four friendlies in just 11 days. Mauricio Pochettino wants to look at this squad depth and give other names a chance to impress him, which is why punters aren't keen to back the hosts who may field a disjointed starting XI.
And while Peru haven't been pulling up any trees, they have moved from considerable outsiders at 13/2 into 11/2. La Roja, who are struggling to find promising youth players, are still a huge price - but that may be shorter once Pochettino announces a young USA side to start in Orlando.
Odds: Peru to win was 13/2 now 11/2
Portugal vs Wales
The money continues to pour in for Portugal to brush Wales to one side, and for those looking to place their accas early, it's best to throw the hosts in now before they go off even shorter. BetMGM opened at just 1/4, but they've already been cut to 1/5, and any kind of positive result for Wales would be a huge shock in the opening round.
Wales head to Portugal winless in their last four, including draws vs Northern Ireland and Ghana, followed by defeat vs Romania, it looks like it's going to be a bleak evening for Craig Bellamy's men.
Portugal will be looking to press the reset button after narrowly losing to Spain at the World Cup in the summer, but prior to that defeat, their last was back in November 2025, although that did come against Ireland.
Will they be an acca buster? It's hard to see. They are an extremely short price - but for good reason - and Portugal should comfortably beat Wales as the punters continue to pile in.
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