
In recent seasons, Burnley have a good record of bouncing straight back to the Premier League following relegation. The Clarets won the Championship under Sean Dyche in 2015/16 before repeating that under Vincent Kompany in 2022/23, finishing the season on 101 points.
Burnley secured another immediate return to the Premier League in 2024/25, finishing second under Scott Parker with 100 points. However, things have been very different this season, with the Clarets currently struggling at the bottom of the Championship table.
Burnley currently find themselves in the relegation zone with ten points after 15 games. They have already conceded 31 goals, compared to just 16 throughout their 2024/25 promotion campaign. Scoring goals hasn't been the main problem for Burnley; they scored four goals against Cardiff in their recent outing.
Burnley's problems this season go beyond their performances on the pitch. The Clarets have won just once in their opening 15 matches, so the international break has come at the right time to reset, especially with Fabio Celestini recently being appointed head coach.
There have also been concerns about the club's financial position under ALK Capital, who completed their takeover in December 2020. Burnley have reportedly built up significant debts in recent years, with questions being raised about the club's long-term future.
Changes in management haven't helped either, with Scott Parker, Nicky Hayen and now Celestini taking charge. Supporters have grown increasingly frustrated with the ownership, and unless results improve quickly, Burnley could find themselves battling to avoid a second consecutive relegation.
Burnley's defensive struggles could make both teams to score and over 2.5 goals interesting betting markets. The Clarets have already conceded 31 goals in their opening 15 Championship matches, averaging just over two goals conceded per game. Over 2.5 goals has also landed in ten of Burnley's 15 matches, while eight have produced at least four goals. Their games have averaged 3.53 goals, which is another reason why I think the goals markets are worth considering.
Burnley have found the net in 14 of their 15 league fixtures but have managed just two clean sheets. For me, both teams to score looks like the strongest betting angle going forward, particularly with the Clarets continuing to struggle defensively. I also think over 2.5 goals is worth backing when Burnley face attacking opposition due to how many goals they're conceding; I wouldn't back the Clarets to keep clean sheets until there's a significant improvement defensively.
Burnley are currently five points from safety. Despite their poor start, the Clarets are 16/5 to get relegated with BetMGM. That looks like an interesting price considering they've managed just one league win all season and have already conceded 31 goals.
However, there were some encouraging signs in Burnley's latest fixture, with the Clarets showing improvement under new manager Fabio Celestini. Their attacking performance was particularly impressive, scoring four goals against Cardiff, and there is reason to believe results could improve as the players adapt to his approach.
For me, Burnley to be relegated at 16/5 is an interesting outright selection, although their improved performance under Celestini makes me slightly more cautious. If the new manager can get the best out of his players and improve their defensive record, I think Burnley have enough time to move away from the relegation zone. However, based on what we've seen so far this season, I still expect them to be involved in the relegation battle.
Although Burnley have a strong record of bouncing straight back to the Premier League, I can't see them challenging for promotion this season. The Clarets have already dropped too many points.

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