
The Champions League quarter-finals conclude this week, with the second legs taking place on Tuesday, April 14th and Wednesday, April 15th.
Tuesday's matches see Barcelona host Atletico Madrid and Liverpool take on Paris Saint-Germain. Atletico take a 2-0 lead into Spain after making the most of Barcelona going down to ten men in the first leg. Even so, this is still viewed as the most open tie, with Barcelona around 12/5 to reach the semi-finals despite the deficit.
Liverpool also have work to do after their 2-0 defeat in Paris. They are around 9/2 to qualify, but Anfield has seen enough European comebacks over the years for Liverpool to believe the tie is not over.
Wednesday brings the remaining two quarter-finals. Arsenal are in a good position after their 1-0 win away at Sporting Lisbon and should expect to finish the job at the Emirates despite their shaky form overall.
Bayern Munich also go into the second leg ahead after their 2-1 win over Real Madrid in Spain. Bayern have put themselves in a favourable position, but only one goal separates the sides, so Los Blancos can't be counted out.
Champions League tipster Ben Smith has selected a four-leg accumulator for this week's quarter-final second legs on Highbet, focusing on where he sees the best value in the latest Champions League odds.
Liverpool have it all to do at Anfield after the 2-0 defeat in Paris, and this sets up as a very different sort of second leg. The home side cannot afford to be as cautious as they were in Paris. Arne Slot’s side need to be on the front foot from the off, but chasing the tie against a side with PSG’s pace and quality in forward areas is a dangerous balance.
PSG have the players to punish space when opponents push on. That matters here because Liverpool are unlikely to be able to play with the handbrake on for long. The longer they go without scoring, the more open the game should become for the visitors.
Anfield is always a factor on European nights and Liverpool will believe they can make this competitive, but the game state suits PSG far more than it suits the hosts. The French side do not need to force the game, and that should help them pick their moments.
PSG to Win & 1-4 Match Goals makes plenty of sense. It covers a sensible away performance and lines up with the way this second leg is likely to unfold, with Liverpool committing bodies forward especially in the latter stages, against a team they’ve struggled to break down.
Atletico Madrid have become a much more attack-minded side in recent seasons, but this second leg is likely to be played on Diego Simeone's terms. Holding a 2-0 lead, Atletico can afford to be patient, break up the rhythm of the game and wait for the right moments to attack.
That puts the pressure firmly on Barcelona. They need to chase the tie from the start and are unlikely to be able to play with the same control they usually enjoy. The longer the game stays level, the more risks Barcelona will have to take.
Atletico have enough quality to take advantage when those spaces appear, while Simeone has managed enough European ties to know exactly how he wants this played. Barcelona are capable of causing problems, but the game state suits the home side and Atletico Madrid double chance appeals most.
Arsenal do not need much from this second leg. After the win in Lisbon, even a draw is enough, which should keep the emphasis on control rather than urgency.
That matters for the goals angle. A one-goal lead means there is little reason for Arsenal to turn this into a fast, open game, particularly against a Sporting CP side that still only need one moment to get back into the tie.
Sporting may also be careful about when they commit numbers forward. Conceding would leave them needing three, so there is a good chance they approach this patiently rather than throwing everything at Arsenal from the start.
That points towards a fairly narrow range of outcomes. Arsenal have been very difficult to beat in this competition, especially at home, while Sporting's away results in Europe suggest they may struggle to do enough to win on the night.
A low scoring type of game looks far more likely than anything chaotic, which is why Arsenal double chance and 1-3 match goals stands out.
Bayern Munich have already done the hard part by winning in Madrid and now return to the Allianz Arena, where they have been far more convincing. Vincent Kompany's side have won all five of their home matches in this season's Champions League and arrive on the back of a 15-game unbeaten run in all competitions.
Real Madrid still carry obvious threat, but they travel without suspended midfielder Aurélien Tchouaméni and are likely to need a more open game than Bayern want. That should create chances for the hosts, particularly through Harry Kane and Michael Olise.
With Madrid needing to chase the tie at some stage, Bayern on the -1.5 handicap appeals.
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