
All four ties in the UEFA Champions League and Europa League are separated by no more than one goal, making this midweek’s second legs particularly intriguing as the eight sides look to book their places in Budapest and Istanbul, respectively.
Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich produced one of the most memorable ties in recent history last week, with the European champions edging a 5-4 victory at the Parc des Princes.
The Ligue 1 leaders had raced into a 5-2 lead by the hour mark, but goals from Dayot Upamecano and Luis Diaz pulled Bayern back into contention, giving them a genuine chance ahead of the return leg at the Allianz Arena.
There was little to separate Atletico Madrid and Arsenal in the other Champions League semi-final. Viktor Gyökeres opened the scoring with a penalty, only for Julian Alvarez to respond in kind from the spot. The draw represents a solid outcome for the Gunners, who are favourites to finish the job in North London.
In the Europa League, Nottingham Forest and Braga both carry narrow advantages into their second legs, while Aston Villa and Freiburg remain firmly in contention to turn their ties around.
Champions League tipster Ben Smith has compiled a four-leg accumulator for the semi-finals on BetMGM, focusing on where the current Europa League and Champions League odds appear to offer the best value.
Viktor Gyokeres is enjoying a productive spell in front of goal for Arsenal, and the odds on him finding the net again on Tuesday night look a touch generous.
The timely return of Bukayo Saka has made a clear difference to Arsenal’s attacking threat. The England winger wasted no time reminding everyone of his quality on Saturday, beating his man and setting up the opener against Fulham. His direct running and delivery should continue to create opportunities in and around the box.
There is also added creativity through Eberechi Eze, whose ability to unlock defences could prove important. With that level of service, Gyokeres is likely to see chances fall his way.
He has already shown he can deliver in this fixture, scoring twice against Atletico Madrid in the league phase and converting from the spot in the first leg. There were multiple penalty incidents in Madrid, and with similar pressure expected, those avenues cannot be ruled out again.
This clash at the Allianz Arena must be one of the most anticipated semi-final second legs in UEFA Champions League history after Bayern and PSG served up nine goals in Paris a week ago.
It was attacking football from the off, with Bayern operating with a high line and offering space in behind, and PSG punishing that with the likes of Ousmane Dembele and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia having all kinds of joy.
Vincent Kompany’s side had their moments too, though, and plenty of them. Michael Olise and Luis Diaz both had a huge impact, each scoring superb goals, while Harry Kane did a great job occupying defenders and bringing others into play.
Remarkably, the Asian goal line is set at 4.25 for this fixture. I cannot, in good conscience, advise the over on a line that high, but the PSG team goal line does appeal.
Last week, I went for Bayern over 1.5 goals, and this time I will go for the reverse. At home and in need of a comeback, it is difficult to see Bayern changing their approach. They will push up the pitch, and PSG have too much quality going the other way not to punish them.
No one can be certain what the outcome will be or whether it will match last week’s goal count, but PSG will surely not be kept quiet.
Aston Villa look like they have completely run out of gas. Their last three performances have all been poor, but none more so than the defeat to Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday evening.
Yes, they made changes, but failing to register a shot in the first half was a real concern, and they were not convincing even when the first-choice players were introduced in the second half.
Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, are unbeaten in nine and looking very solid. On current form, Villa simply do not look capable of bringing that run to an end.
Freiburg have been excellent at home all season, winning all of their UEFA Europa League matches at Europa-Park Stadion, so a one-goal deficit should not faze them here.
They have averaged six shots on target per game at home in this competition, and with them trailing by one, expect the efforts to come thick and fast.
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