With another weekend of EFL action approaching, there are some interesting betting trends across League One and League Two.
Home teams haven't had things simple this season, while League Two has produced some interesting numbers when looking at the goals market. Short-priced favourites are also worth looking at, especially with plenty of people likely to include them in their weekend accumulators. Here are three EFL betting trends to keep an eye on this weekend.
Is League One Home Advantage Worth Opposing?
Home advantage can play an important part when betting on the EFL, but League One has produced some interesting results so far this season. After 87 matches, home teams have won just 35% of games. Away teams have won 32%, while the other 33% have ended in a draw.
This means that League One home teams have failed to win 65% of their matches so far. There also isn't much difference between the number of home and away wins, which is worth considering when looking at the prices available each weekend.
Home teams can often be shorter in the
betting market, especially when two similar sides meet. However, the early results suggest that home advantages haven't been enough for many teams.
There have been some good examples recently. Bradford secured an impressive 1-0 away win against Luton, while Doncaster picked up all three points at Peterborough with a 2-0 win. Burton also recorded a 1-0 away win against Plymouth.
There are some good fixtures to look at this weekend, including Burton against Huddersfield and Leyton Orient against Plymouth. Of course, this doesn't mean every home team should be opposed. However, with home sides winning just over one in three matches, it could be worth looking at the away win and double chance markets when a home team appears to be priced too short.
Are League Two Goal Markets Being Priced Correctly?
League Two has also produced some interesting trends when looking at the goal markets.
There have been around 2.5 goals per match so far, while 44% of games have finished with over 2.5 goals. Both teams have scored in just over half of the matches.
Those numbers don't suggest a particularly strong trend across the league as a whole. However, things become more interesting when looking at individual teams. Barnet have seen six of their first seven matches finish with over 2.5 goals, while both teams have scored in all seven.
Cheltenham have produced a similar record, with both teams scoring in each of their opening seven matches. Six of those games have also finished with at least three goals.
Accrington are another side worth looking at, with five of their opening seven matches producing over 2.5 goals. These numbers show why looking at individual teams can be more useful than simply looking at the league average. Some teams are regularly involved in open matches, while others have produced far fewer goals. It will be interesting to see how quickly the bookmakers react to these trends.
As the season continues, prices on BTTS and over 2.5 goals are likely to shorten for teams that regularly produce high-scoring matches. For now, there could still be some value available by finding teams whose goals trends are stronger than the overall League Two average.
Do Short-Priced EFL Favourites Offer Value?
Short-priced favourites are regularly included in weekend accumulators, but backing the strongest team on paper doesn't always mean you are getting good value. There have already been several examples of strongly fancied EFL teams dropping points this season.
Plymouth were strong favourites at home against Burton recently, but suffered a 1-0 defeat. Luton have also struggled at home, with Bradford leaving Kenilworth Road with all three points. Results like these are always going to happen over a long season, particularly in the EFL where there can be very little between teams.
The important thing is whether the price accurately reflects a team's chances of winning. A side can be the most likely winner of a match without necessarily offering good value at the available odds. This is particularly important when building accumulators. Adding several odds-on favourites can look like a safer way of building a bigger price, but it only takes one team to underperform and the bet to lose.
Recent performances, home and away records and the strength of the opposition should all be considered before backing a short-priced favourite. The early stages of the season can also make things difficult, with everyone still learning how strong each team is. There is nothing wrong with backing a short-priced favourite when the price looks right. However, with the EFL regularly producing surprise results,
finding betting value
could be more important than simply backing the team most likely to win.
Home advantage in League One, individual goals trends in League Two and the performance of short-priced favourites are three areas worth keeping an eye on this weekend.
