Each week this season our
football betting analyst
Nathan Joyes will be highlighting four market movers that have caught his attention. This week, it's the return of the Nations League and international friendlies across the globe - but where's the money going? Let’s dive into the
betting prices
at BetMGM.
Ukraine vs Northern Ireland
Ukraine managed to beat Hungary 1-0 on the road before being held 0-0 against Georgia in round two, yet will play their third match at "home" where they are expected to return to winning ways - according to the punters. Set to play in Trnava, Slovakia, Ukraine haven't been able to play a home match since the war started with Russia back in 2022.
However, despite the lack of "home" advantage, bettors believe that Ukraine have enough to collect three points against Northern Ireland. Defensively, Ukraine have looked solid, and are still yet to concede. If either Girona's Vladyslav Vanat or Anderlecht's Danylo Sikan can find the back of the net, that might be enough for Ukraine to secure their second win in just over a week.
Although Northern Ireland are ranked 37 places below Ukraine, they too will arrive in Slovakia in a confident mood. Unbeaten, having edged past Georgia and held Hungary at home, they too will believe a single goal could be enough to see them steal the points.
Prior to that last gasp winner vs Georgia, Northern Ireland haven't performed well on their travels, having only beaten Luxembourg and Scotland in the last three years. Defeats against Denmark, Germany, Sweden, Slovakia, Italy, Spain and Bulgaria have followed - which is why bettors are turning their attention to a nation that has a more experienced squad with players operating at higher levels domestically. It may well be a narrow game, but the smart money is coming for Ukraine who can edge out their opponents.
Odds: Ukraine to win was 21/20 now 17/20
Bosnia vs Sweden
Next up: Bosnia. Having held Poland to a 0-0 draw in Warsaw, Bosnia put four past Romania on their travels and head into their first home match full of confidence. Sweden may have beaten both Poland and Romania, but those came on home soil, and their 2-1 win over Romania was far less glamorous than what Bosnia produced in round two.
Bosnia had a very productive 2025 which contributed to their World Cup appearance in the summer. The Bosnians only suffered one defeat that came against Austria (1-0) but their victory against Italy that saw them qualify for the World Cup was without doubt their best resultin recent years.
Sweden had a torrid time during the summer. In fact, their away performances in general have been rather worrying. Defeats against Kosovo, Switzerland, Norway and the Netherlands have revealed a common theme: huge defensive problems.
With Bosnia fit and firing, there's no surprise to see bettors looking to side with the underdogs, who will be hoping to build on their really strong start to their Nations League campaign. Sweden simply can't be trusted on the road.
Odds: Bosnia to win was 12/5 now 21/10
Iceland vs Bulgaria
Iceland have caught the eye after putting three past Luxembourg in round two and now set up their second home match vs Bulgaria. The visitors, who suffered a 2-1 defeat against Luxembourg held Estonia at home, but in the process extended their winless run to four. In fact, the visitors have only won three matches since the beginning of 2025, and two of those came against Indonesia and the Solomon Islands - Iceland won't be too worried.
The hosts may have only won one home match themselves from their last five, hammering Azerbaijan 5-0, but they did also manage to hold France 2-2 and stuck three past Ukraine. If they can bring that goalscoring energy to this match, Iceland shouldn't have too many issues against a below average Bulgarian side.
Punters have been backing Iceland at short prices, who are now into 1/2, but they are the ideal selection for those looking for doubles, trebles and accas this week. Bulgaria have only beaten Luxembourg on the road in a competitive match since 2022, and it'll be a shock if Iceland is added to that very short list.
Odds: Iceland to win was 4/7 now 1/2
Colombia vs Paraguay
Two South American nations meet in New Jersey but it's Nestor Lorenzo's side that are being backed in to come out on top. Having opened around 5/6, Colombia are now 3/4 to extend their strong record over Paraguay. Having won three of their last five meetings, losing none of them, Colombia will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing World Cup exit as they start to think about Copa America in 2028.
Held by Mexico earlier in the week to a 1-1 draw, while Paraguay beat Bolivia 2-0, Colombia will have shaken off any jet lag as they look to find their rhythm in their second match of this international break.
It's easy to see why punters are supporting Colombia. Stacked with talent across the pitch, including Daniel Munoz, Richard Rios, Jhon Arias and Luis Suarez, Lorenzo's side play at a pace their opponents may not be able to deal with.
There's plenty to like about Colombia, whereas Paraguay often rely on one or two individuals to get them over the line. Colombia can continue their good form over their South American rivals on US soil.
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