La Liga Betting Preview
There are 10 La Liga matches on the schedule this week, running from Friday, 12 December to Monday, 15 December.
La Liga tipster
Ben Smith has set out his latest bets and predictions for the round, with every pick matched to the best available
La Liga betting odds
for each fixture.
Real Sociedad vs Girona
Real Sociedad managed to settle things down through October and early November after a poor start, but defeats to Villarreal and Alaves have stalled that improvement. They sit four points clear of Girona, who have their own issues and remain without an away win. Even so, Sociedad look a touch short at 3/4.
Girona’s away record makes the handicap unappealing, so goals provide a clearer angle. Girona have the worst defence in La Liga, and Sociedad rank 17th for goals conceded at home, which underlines how fragile they have been in their own stadium. With the line set at 2.5, the overs appeal.
Betting Tip: Over 2.5 Goals - 9/10
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Atletico Madrid vs Valencia
Atletico Madrid head into this round on the back of two league losses that have more or less ended any realistic chance of pushing for the title, with Barcelona now nine points ahead of them.
Their European campaign is at least moving in the right direction. After two early defeats in England, they have responded well and climbed into the top eight.
Valencia have yet to win on their travels and have conceded 10 goals across their visits to Barcelona and Real Madrid. Given how vulnerable they have looked in those fixtures, this could turn into another difficult afternoon for the away side.
Betting Tip: Atletico Madrid -1 Handicap - 20/23
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Mallorca vs Elche
Mallorca’s position in 17th is down almost entirely to their away form, which has been poor throughout the season.
Their home performances tell a different story. Since losing to Barcelona on the opening weekend, they have gone six unbeaten at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix and have looked far more assured in front of their own supporters.
Elche have also struggled on the road, drawing their first three away games before losing the following four.
Mallorca’s consistency at home makes them the steadier side to side with, and taking them on the Asian handicap provides a degree of protection if the match finishes level.
Betting Tip: Mallorca -0.25 Asian Handicap - 21/20 10bet
Barcelona vs Osasuna
Barcelona have been flawless at home in La Liga, winning all eight matches in Catalonia and generally doing so with a degree of control. Their European form has been less smooth, but their midweek comeback against Eintracht Frankfurt showed plenty of character and underlined their ability to shift gears when required.
A notable trend in the league is their second half strength. They have won the second half in all eight home fixtures, repeatedly breaking teams down once the match opens up.
In five of those games they also won both halves. Against 15th-placed Osasuna, odds against on Barcelona to do the same here is a fair angle to take.
Betting Tip: Barcelona to Win Both Halves - 5/4
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Getafe vs Espanyol
Getafe sit in eighth without doing anything out of the ordinary this season. They have handled the sides around them fairly well but have fallen short whenever they have met the top clubs in La Liga.
Their matches are usually tight, averaging two goals, and only one of their home games has gone over 2.5.
Espanyol are performing well and occupy fifth place, but they are not an especially open side either. Their last three matches in all competitions have all finished 1-0.
With the total goals line understandably set low, the alternative that stands out is exactly one goal at a sizeable price.
Betting Tip: Exactly One Goal - 5/2 QuinnBet
Sevilla vs Oviedo
Oviedo’s away record looks poor on paper, but the context softens it. All five of their away defeats have been against teams in the top half, which is a tough run for any promoted side.
The two times they travelled to bottom half opponents, they collected four points in total, so their level in these matchups has been far more competitive.
Sevilla have been unpredictable at home, yet their matches at Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan Stadium have consistently produced goals. They have scored in six of seven home games and conceded in six of seven, so odds against on both teams to score feels generous.
That outcome also landed in both of Oviedo’s previous away fixtures against bottom half teams, which strengthens the case for it here.
Betting Tip: Both Teams to Score - 26/25
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Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club
Celta Vigo’s eight match winless run at home to start this campaign included five straight 1-1 draws at Estadio de Balaidos, and with Athletic Club’s away form nothing special, another similar outcome would not surprise.
Celta are slight favourites, but backing a team yet to win at home is rarely appealing. Athletic Club’s hard fought midweek draw with PSG is also likely to have taken something out of them, which only adds to the sense that this could be another tight, low margin contest.
Betting Tip: Draw - 39/20 BetMGM
Levante vs Villarreal
Levante have taken only one point from six matches at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, which makes them the weakest home side in La Liga so far.
It is hard to make a case for that changing against Villarreal. The visitors rank as the fourth best away team, winning four of seven, with their only defeats coming in Madrid.
Villarreal have also been productive in front of goal on their travels, scoring more than once in each of their away triumphs.
Levante, meanwhile, have conceded at least two in every home match. With those trends lining up, Villarreal to win combined with over 1.5 goals looks a logical approach.
Betting Tip: Villarreal to Win & Over 1.5 Goals - 10/11 QuickBet
Alaves vs Real Madrid
Xabi Alonso is under pressure at Real Madrid after the midweek home defeat to Manchester City. Sitting four points behind Barcelona and in a risky position in the chase for automatic Champions League qualification is far from ideal, so they need a response at Alaves.
Even in Wednesday’s loss they looked like a side still committed to their manager, and that level of effort should be enough for them to get back to winning ways here.
Betting Tip: Real Madrid to Win & Over 1.5 Goals - 4/5 QuickBet
Rayo Vallecano vs Real Betis
With Rayo Vallecano proving draw specialists at home and Betis showing the same trend away, there is little reason to look beyond the obvious angle.
The draw feels slightly overpriced given both sides have some of the best defensive records in the league, and their styles often lead to tight, low scoring matches. This sets up neatly for another cagey contest where neither side is likely to pull clear.
Betting Tip: Draw - 49/20 BetMGM
