Nations League betting insights for fixtures on 1-3 October 2026

Our resident football tipster Nathan Joyes continues to analyse the Nations League trends throughout the international break. He's already flagged Anthony Gordon and Michael Olise to find the back of the net, so who does he like the look of this time round?

Having scanned through the stats and data, Nathan has highlighted a few players to keep an eye on this week.

Nations League betting: Smash and grab for Greece?

Well, well, well. What a week for this young, energic, yet disciplined Greece side. Not only did they travel to Belgrade and pick up three points, but they also faced Jurgen Klopp's Germany in Cologne and came away with another three points - as well as a clean sheet.

This team looks legit. Talent throughout the starting XI - as well as the bench - punters will no doubt be eyeing up their EUROs price nice and early. And it's difficult to argue with them. The win in Serbia turned heads, but their win against Germany raised eyebrows. This was no fluke, either, and the Netherlands will be worried to face a nation with so much momentum and confidence behind them.

Despite Greece winning both opening matches, UK bookmakers have them as big as 5/2 to make it three wins in a row. Clearly, they are not fancied to topple the Dutch. However, this isn't a team this is bulletproof, who are yet to register a clean sheet and haven't now for 10 straight matches.

The draw no bet price around evens has to be tempting. It's tempting me, and I certainly believe this team can only improve. This will be Greece's first home match of the Nations League, and with a huge crowd behind them, the Netherlands have their work cut out to leave with at least a point, never mind three.

Nations League betting: Italy to spring a surprise?

Having failed to qualify for the last two World Cups, and after a poor period, Roberto Mancini has been appointed to turn their fortunes around. After a disappointing 2-0 defeat against Belgium, Italy responded with a 4-1 win vs Turkiye in Istanbul. In fact, Italy were 3-0 up at half-time and the game was almost done and dusted.

However, their biggest test to date, and Mancini's, comes next. France away. Ranked no.3 in the world, this isn't going to be easy, especially considering France have won their opening two matches without conceding. Yet without Kylian Mbappe leading the line, goals have been difficult to come by. Two narrow 1-0 wins won't have Italy too worried.

So do the visitors have a chance? Looking at the betting odds, it would appear not. Italy are as big as 6/1 to win on French soil. And while their performance against Turkiye was mightily impressive, this is a completely different match up.

However, Italy are available at 1/1 for +1.25 Asian Handicap. If they lose by one, which has been a trend with France in their opening two matches, your bet will be settled as a half win. Without Mbappe, that looks to be more tempting than hoping for Italy to spring a massive surprise. If you're not overly convinced about the French going forward this international break, this could be the angle to take.

Nations League betting: England clean sheet on the cards

England went their entire World Cup qualifying campaign without conceding, and while that won't happen in the Nations League, there's every chance that their wins will be accompanied with a clean sheet.

Spain fired three past them at Wembley, but a 2-0 win on the road vs Czechia followed, where England's defence was barely tested, especially after a calmer second half against 10 men.

More rested than Croatia, England have an opportunity to build on that result. Croatia, admittedly, have scored in both matches to date. They beat Czechia 2-1, before losing 4-1 against Spain in Sevilla. One could argue, however, that was perhaps a tad fortunate. With just two shots on target all match, and an xG of 0.47, Croatia were lucky to get on the scoresheet.

Now they did put two past England at the World Cup in the summer, once again scoring twice from just three shots on target. But since Thomas Tuchel has brought in James Trafford between the sticks, with a completely different back line that looks stronger.

The betting suggests both teams will find the back of the net, but recent trends show that Croatia are not creating much, and with England's new look back line, the Three Lions can keep two clean sheets in a row, especially being more refreshed after a second half stroll vs Czechia.