Premier League betting insights for fixtures on 10-11 October 2026

Our resident football tipster Nathan Joyes returns after the international break to analyse the latest Premier League trends you may have missed. Is it worth avoiding teams that prefer to have the most possession? Is home advantage ruining your bet slips? And who should we be avoiding with scoring first trends? Let's dive into the data ahead of this weekend's fixtures.

Premier League possession

According to Opta, teams that have finished the match with 60% possession or more have only won eight of 22 matches this season. With a win rate at just 36.4%, this is one of the lowest figures since Opta started recording Premier League data back in 2005-06.

So, what does this mean when it comes to betting? Teams that are more tactical and prefer to counter, press high and attack space quickly are becoming more and more effective vs teams that prefer to have the ball for long periods.

Brighton, for example, took a more out-of-possession approach vs Arsenal in round five, coming away with a 3-0 win despite having just five shots on target and 40% possession. Yet on the road, they have had over 60% in all three Premier League matches and suffered two defeats, only beating recently promoted Coventry.

They face a Sunderland side this weekend who beat Fulham 1-0 in their opening match at the Stadium of Light 1-0, finishing the game with 41% possession.  Yet the Black Cats are the underdogs according to the UK bookmakers this weekend. Nottingham Forest have also been successful on their travels with limited possession.

The Tricky Trees beat Aston Villa and held Liverpool with an average of 40% possession. Oliver Glasner takes his new team back to his old this weekend as they face Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park, a team that has lost both home games to date.

Having the ball doesn't always mean you'll create more and win. Keep an eye on sides that are picking up points without dominating the possession stats.

Betting on home sides

After five rounds, we have 50 games to analyse and with more data we can take a closer look at more accurate trends. One of those is a rather low home win rate this season, operating at just 36%. That, in theory, may go hand in hand with the possession trend we've just gone through.

Of those 50 matches, 16 have been draws, operating at 32%. If you'd backed every Premier League game to be a draw at this stage of the season, you'd be in profit.

Liverpool, Bournemouth, Fulham, Forest, Spurs, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Coventry are all yet to win at home this season. That's quite the list. Forest, Aston Villa, Sunderland and Coventry have all scored one or less at home in their opening 2-3 matches as well.

Looking at the betting odds, home teams are often favoured in close match ups but this season is proving that doesn't mean everything. However, this weekend, there are only three odds-on favourites at home. Arsenal, Chelsea and Man United. Perhaps it's time to start looking at away teams that can counter effectively.

Premier League in-play betting

Another noticeable trend is that teams that scored first in 45 of the 50 matches, only 29 went on to win. Although the conversion rate works out at over 64%, that's actually the fourth lowest in Premier League history.

Bournemouth have taken the lead in four of their five matches but are yet to win in the Premier League this season. They face Chelsea this weekend, who are priced at 11/2 to win from behind and continue that trend.

Brentford are another team to note. The Bees have dropped six points from leading positions, who head to Villa Park this weekend as the favourites to come away with three points - but it might not be that simple with Brentford weaker on the road.

Yet, what is interesting, is that Brentford are unbeaten, whereas Bournemouth haven't won. The angle here may suit in-play bettors. If Brentford take the lead vs Aston Villa, the double chance market on the hosts may appeal. If the Cherries lead at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea may become a more attractive bet.

Liverpool are worth keeping an eye on too. Twice this season they have fought back to rescue points vs Newcastle and Nottingham Forest. They entertain Man City at Anfield this weekend, and after the charges against their opponents, no doubt the home crowd will be looking to make it difficult for the accused.

If Man City take the lead, Liverpool could be worth backing to not lose the match, especially if falling behind with more than 30 minutes left to play. Good luck with all of your bets this weekend - we'll be back for more trends after round six.