Premier League betting insights for fixtures on 18-20 September 2026

Our resident football tipster Nathan Joyes is back to analyse the latest Premier League trends heading into round five. Is there value backing the visitors this campaign? Who should punters be avoiding? Nathan has provided his thoughts on the stats and data, and highlighted early trends to watch and general betting advice ahead of another full schedule this weekend.

Premier League away betting

Last weekend, Leeds were the only home side to win. Tottenham, Bournemouth, Chelsea, Liverpool and Crystal Palace were all favourites to pick up the three points but failed to do so. Spurs were as short as 10/11, while Chelsea busted plenty of accumulators at 1/5 after being held by Hull City.

In round three, there were only two home wins. In round two, there were three and the opening day of the season saw six sets of home supporters leave feeling happy after kickstarting the Premier League campaign with maximum points.

And so as the season has progressed, that all important home form appears to be reducing. Heading into round five, there are six home favourites, while Man United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea remain market leaders on the road.

As always, there is a trend that the "top six" will continue to be favourites when facing teams sitting outside of that particular circle. Yet at the same time, it indicates how competitive the Premier League is this season, and that the market is still figuring teams out. With over half the league starting the campaign with a new manager, it has made it difficult for UK bookmakers to decide outcomes.

That does, then, create genuine betting opportunities. Hull have yet to lose since promotion, and are as big as 4/1 to beat a Newcastle side that just conceded four against Leeds.

Ipswich face Everton and are 7/2 to come out on top, who will also be in a confident mood after beating Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park last weekend.

The advice here isn't to back the visitors each and every week, but what the early rounds are showing us is that home bankers don't exist this season, and there may be value elsewhere.

Betting on newly promoted sides

Both Hull and Ipswich have exceeded expectations after four rounds. Hull, who were favourites to not only be relegated but finish bottom, are unbeaten having held both Chelsea and Aston Villa, as well as winning against Man United. How long that run will continue, however, is up for debate.

Looking at the betting odds, Hull are still heavily odds-on with BetMGM to be relegated, currently priced at 8/13. The bookmakers don't believe they can sustain their excellent start throughout the campaign. For those that do, they are as big as 11/8 to avoid the drop. Now, potentially, is the time to back them if you believe they have been underestimated.

Coventry, on the other hand, are already 1/3 to be relegated. Despite spending heavily during the summer, Frank Lampard's team head to the City Ground this weekend on the back of a 5-0 home defeat against Brighton. Expected to lose again, their 1/1 price to finish bottom may not last forever if things don't begin to click - and fast.

Ipswich are 11/8 to be relegated after a solid start. The Tractor Boys have an advantage of their two newly promoted sides after their recent stint in the Premier League - and that could bode well for them. Next in line, are Fulham at 2/1, who already look in a spot of bother.

The bookmakers didn't give any of these clubs a chance before a ball was kicked, but both Hull and Ipswich have shown they can compete, and it's well worth looking at their handicap prices when they are considerable outsiders in the market.

Premier League draw betting

After four rounds this season, there has been an unusually high percentage of draws. While away wins have spiked, it appears as though teams are still finding their feet, especially those competing in European competitions and managing hectic early schedules.

With 35% of matches of draws already, there's value to be had backing the game to finish as it started. Bournemouth, for example, have drawn three of their four Premier League matches, and face Liverpool this weekend after a midweek trip to face Real Sociedad in their first ever Europa League match. The tie against Liverpool is available at 14/5.

Brentford are another side that has drawn three of their four Premier League matches. They don't have European football this season, and face Chelsea on Friday night, a team they have drawn against four times in a row at home starting back in 2022.

Draws are often not popular bets, but punters would have profited backing the draw in all four rounds to date collectively, and it's certainly an angle to explore if you don't fancy the home side when they are a short price.