Serie A Betting Preview
There are 10 fixtures in Serie A this weekend, with all matches taking place from Saturday, 22nd November, to Monday, 24th November. Football tipster Ben Smith has put forward his best bets and predictions for every game.
Cagliari vs Genoa
Genoa have turned to Daniele De Rossi after parting ways with Patrick Vieira, and his first game brought small encouragement as Il Grifone finally scored at home in a 2-2 draw with bottom side Fiorentina.
They now meet another out-of-form team in Cagliari, who have lost their last three at home.
Genoa have at least been reliable for goals on the road, scoring in every away match and beating Sassuolo 2-1 under temporary boss Roberto Murgita. They look capable of taking something here.
Betting Tip: Genoa Draw No Bet - 20/23
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Udinese vs Bologna
Udinese have taken care of business against bottom-half sides this season, staying unbeaten in those matches and sitting safely in mid-table after 11 games.
Their record against stronger teams is less convincing. Aside from an impressive win at Inter in August, Kosta Runjaic’s side have lost all four of their other matches against top-half opposition, each by more than one goal.
That sets things up well for Bologna, who tend to keep games controlled against mid-table or better sides. Both teams to score has only landed for them against bottom six teams, so backing against it here makes sense.
Betting Tip: BTTS No - 5/6
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Fiorentina vs Juventus
Luciano Spalletti made an ideal start as Juventus manager with a 2-1 win at Cremonese, but the new manager bounce faded as his side were held by Sporting in the Champions League and then by Torino in the derby.
Even so, Juventus created more than enough chances in both draws and appear to be heading in the right direction. Fiorentina, by contrast, are still without a league win and have taken just one point at home. Juventus look nicely priced to take all three points.
Betting Tip: Juventus to Win - 21/20
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Napoli vs Atalanta
Napoli continue to rank as one of the league’s biggest overachievers on xG, while Atalanta sit at the opposite end of that scale. Raffaele Palladino’s side are third on expected points yet find themselves down in 13th, without a league win since September.
Their performances have often been better than results suggest, and they were deserving 1-0 winners away to Marseille in the Champions League earlier this month. With Napoli unconvincing, Atalanta look capable of taking at least a point here.
Betting Tip: Atalanta Double Chance - 7/10 BetMGM
Verona vs Parma
Sunday starts with a relegation scrap between two sides who have been involved in plenty of low-scoring matches, with both Verona and Parma recording three goalless draws already this season.
Verona’s 0-0 results have all come against bottom half teams, while Parma have only had one match go over two goals against sides outside the top six.
A goalless draw would not surprise, but the safer option is under 2 Asian goals, which only loses if the match produces three goals.
Betting Tip: Under 2 Asian Goals - 10/11 BetMGM
Cremonese vs Roma
Roma’s season has been defined by their defensive structure and discipline. They have conceded only five goals across eleven Serie A matches, and six of their eight victories have come with a clean sheet.
They have not scored more than twice in any league game, but they have not needed to, and even in the matches they lost, they were unfortunate not to take something based on how the games played out. Cremonese’s meetings with top sides have often been open, but this looks one that should go the other way.
Betting Tip: Under 2.5 Goals - 3/4
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Lazio vs Lecce
Lazio drew frequently at home last season, but they have been far more effective at the Stadio Olimpico this time. Aside from their 1-0 derby defeat, they have taken ten points from four home matches, with all three victories coming to nil.
Lecce, meanwhile, have struggled on their travels against the more capable Italian sides. They were beaten 4-1 at Atalanta and 3-2 at Udinese, with the scoreline in the latter slightly flattering them. With Lazio looking competent at home, taking them on the Asian handicap appeals.
Betting Tip: Lazio -0.75 Asian Handicap - 4/5
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Inter vs Milan
Both sides come into the Milan derby in strong form. Inter, the league leaders, have won four straight in all competitions, while Milan have not lost since August.
Inter have scored at least twice in all but one of their home league matches, with the only exception being their 2-1 defeat to Udinese.
Milan’s away games against top half teams tend to be open, with over 2.5 goals landing in eight of their last ten. Over 2.5 looks a decent bet in this one.
Betting Tip: Over 2.5 Goals - 17/20 Betway
Torino vs Como
Como have played out three 0-0 draws in their last four matches, and each of those stalemates felt fair based on the chances created.
Only two of their Serie A games this season have produced more than two goals, but overall they can be satisfied with their start, conceding just six times.
Torino offer a different type of test, yet the visitors are justifiably favourites given their organisation. Even so, a match with a high goal count looks unlikely.
Betting Tip: Under 2.25 Asian Goals - 31/40 BetMGM
Sassuolo vs Pisa
Sassuolo look like they could be handy at home this season, with deserved wins over Lazio and Udinese already on the board.
They came up short against Roma and Napoli, but this is a far more manageable assignment on Monday night and they could easily have been a touch shorter in the market.
Betting Tip: Sassuolo to Win - 11/10 Betway
