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This Saturday Geelong will look to solidify their position in the 8 (currently 6th) with a home win against 15th-placed Adelaide. The Cattery isn’t quite the fortress it used to be, Geelong have won 6 but lost 3 already at home this campaign.
Adelaide’s final hopes are shot now and just how they approach this game on the road will be interesting to see. Will there be a reaction after last week’s embarrassment at the hands of the Hawks?
The season in general has been a mixed bag for Chris Scott’s charges. After starting like a house on fire with 7 wins, they followed that up with a run of 6 losses in 7. The form has stabilised over the last 5 weeks however with just one loss and that was to the white-hot Western Bulldogs.
The Crows on the other hand never really threatened to make finals after a 0-4 start to the season. They’ve more recently managed to win a few games they weren’t expected to, including against an out-of-form Essendon (a) and the Giants (h).
I already alluded to their last game though, a home encounter against Hawthorn, and that is hard to erase from the memory.
They very nearly set a lifetime club record of not registering a 2nd half goal and this was a home match at the Adelaide Oval. 28 minutes and 52 seconds into the 4th quarter they scored a quick couple of goals and narrowly avoided that severe embarrassment.
The team looked absolutely out on their feet all second half and while some were still giving their all, there were some pretty bad-looking efforts.
It wasn’t a case of being on the beach to coin a term from English football but they simply looked physically cooked. That was Sunday late afternoon so they are on a shorter turnaround than the Cats who’ve had more than 24 hours of extra recovery time.
I’ve every faith Geelong will prevail here but exactly how best to bet it required scouring the markets. I’m not going to put up the 1/3 for them to win the match but instead look towards to 2nd half market.
They’ve lost 5 of their last 7 in terms of second halves. Add to that the nature of the latter stages in the Hawthorn game combined with the shorter recovery time and I’m confident they’ll be run over again as the game goes on.
The best way I could find to back my strong conviction that Geelong will dominate particularly late was to use the BetBuilder option at Bet365. By combining Geelong in the 2nd Half Result 3-way and Geelong 10pts or more in the Match Margin markets we have a 3/4 shot that makes plenty of appeal.
To clarify, we will need Geelong to outscore their opponent in the 2nd half and eventually prevail by 10 pts come full-time to win our bet.
Bet £10 get £30 in free bets when you sign up to Bet365 today. Use this bonus with BetBuilder feature to back our latest AFL tip.
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