The DP World Tour heads to Wentworth this week, for what is one of the standout events on the yearly schedule, the BMW Championship. It’s a real quality line up and we’ll see three of the Top 4 players in the world lining up here. That actually gives us a bit of an advantage, as it means I’ve found some serious value elsewhere in the field and a few that I’m particularly keen on. But whatever happens, this week is going to be an absolute belter.
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It’s a really tough 7267-yard course at Wentworth. It has four Par 5s and three of those come in the back nine holes. Good all-round performers generally fare well here, but the stats that interest me the most are those which reflect solid iron play. The approaches at Wentworth are very difficult and players who hit greens in regulation this week will certainly benefit from getting birdie opportunities.
Last year's winner was Shane Lowry, with a score of 17 under par, he beat McIlroy and Rahm who finished joint second, at 16 under for the tournament. That doesn’t tell the whole story though, as Jon Rahm finished the tournament nine under through the final 10 holes, to card a course record equalling 62, which was one of the best performances I have ever seen. I’m hoping there will be just as much excitement this year.
My strongest betting tip of the week is Matt Walace, who is the only one in the field that plays out of Wentworth Golf Club, and I can see him making a really big impact in this tournament. He has been playing some good golf of late, he was especially impressive when finishing second in the Czech Masters and has been solid enough in his two events since then as well.
His recent successes have also left him brimming with confidence, which I think makes a huge difference to Matt’s game. Plus, there is also the fact that he is coming to his home club and that alone gives him a huge chance this week. I thought he would be priced much lower for this and 80/1, with 10 places available, is just too good to miss out on.
Next up is Bobby MacIntyre, who is another player that I see as overpriced for this week's BMW Championship. A few weeks ago he finished fourth in the Czech Masters, but then he had a bit of a stressful week at the European Masters, only managing a tie for 55th place.
However, the pressure has been taken off now that he has successfully made it into the Ryder Cup squad, which surely must put Bobby Mac in the right mood and I think Wentworth will be right up his street. It’s the type of track he excels at and more importantly, he has the game to beat the big names in this field. I think at 66/1, two-time DP World Tour winner Bobby Mac is a top choice for this week’s squad.
Selection number three is Tyrell Hatton, who I am advising as a win bet only due to his shorter price. Tyrell won this event in 2020 and I think he has a great chance of picking up a second BMW Championship win this week. I’ve had him in mind for this for a few weeks now, and he has really impressed me with his iron play, which is superb.
Admittedly, when you’re backing Tyrell, you may need to take his temper into account, but he does use it as a positive in some strange way and he often manages to get back on track by playing aggressively if he has a few loose bogeys. I think out of the top 20 players in this field, Tyrell holds the best value at 18/1.
My next betting tip for the BMW Championship is Ross Fisher, who is already a five-time winner on Tour. He seems to be coming to the boil again, having played exceptionally well in the Himmerland in July and is more than capable of mixing it with the big guns in this field.
He also looked to be well on his way to a good finish in the Irish Open. He put on a really solid performance in the first two rounds, carding 66 in both, but he struggled a bit in the final two. That said, he still finished in a tie for 23rd and I saw enough of him to think he can come to Wentworth and put four good rounds together. 175/1 is too big for Ross Fisher in an event where home players tend to shine.
My fifth and final selection is Eddie Pepperell. He is another player that looks ready to scoop up a big prize any time soon and there’s no reason that shouldn’t happen this week. He took some time off to work on his mental game and it seems to be working out well for him, as he has had two Top 10 finishes in his last four starts.
He hasn’t been carrying a driver of late, which I personally would prefer to see in the bag, but it’s not the end of the world if he doesn’t bring it with him, as he hits plenty long enough anyway. Eddie is another home player who I think will thrive at Wentworth this week.
As I mentioned right at the start, with some of the world’s best players showing up here to compete in the BMW Championship, there is some serious value to be had lower down the rankings and I mean serious. So I’ve put together a trio of longshots, at huge prices, that are definitely worth a bit of pocket change.
My first bomb of the week is going to be Joakim Lagergren. I’ll say up front that he has been out of form lately, but based on his better form previously, he could well pull something out of the bag here. He is a DPWT winner, his stats match this course and he has played well in this event in the past. So, if he gets his act together this week, I can see him making the places and at a massive price.
I’m giving a chance to Callum Shinkwin here, on the basis that if he starts the week well, he could definitely play a part this week. I love the home players in the BMW Championship and even though Callum’s recent form has been a bit poor, he did make the cut last week in the Irish Open and that could just help him turn a corner. You could find worse 400/1 shots out there that’s for sure.
My final longshot for this week is Alex Knappe, who made a pledge to play all of the DP World Tour events this season and he has kept his promise. Across all of the events, he has had two Top 5 finishes and they were both performances that proved he has a good enough game.
It’s unlikely that Knappe will win this event, but he has a steady game which could definitely see him challenge for a place. With his 1000/1 price tag and 10 places available, he’s surely worth a pop?
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