
Every April the golfing world arrives at Augusta National expecting the same thing: the best players, the most famous course and a leaderboard dominated by familiar names.
For all the attention given to Augusta National's closing stretch, the Masters is usually shaped much earlier than that. The course gives players room from the tee and invites them to attack, but it also punishes poor positioning and the wrong miss more severely than almost anywhere else.
Success here is built around precision. The players who thrive tend to be those striking their irons well enough to find the correct parts of the greens, while also having the imagination and touch to recover when they do not. Augusta's putting surfaces are so severe that simply hitting them offers no guarantee. Leave the ball in the wrong spot, and two putts can suddenly feel like an achievement.
That profile is why the same names often dominate the betting. Recent champions such as Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm all arrived already playing close to their best. Yet because the market leans so heavily towards that small group, bookmakers often end up offering generous prices and extra places on players further down the list. History shows that is not a bad place to look. Several winners over the last two decades were far from obvious beforehand, and there is usually at least one outsider who gives the favourites something to think about.
Golf tipster Ben Smith has made four selections with BetMGM, one of the leading Masters golf betting sites.
Jake Knapp is difficult to dismiss, given the level of golf he has played for much of this campaign. Since the start of February, he has finished fifth, eighth twice, and sixth twice. Some of those performances have come on courses with plenty of overlap to Augusta.
The sixth at Riviera stands out in particular. That is one of the closest comparisons to Augusta on the PGA Tour schedule, and Knapp produced it by gaining heavily with his approach play and putter. His latest start brought another top-six in Houston, where the irons and putter were again both excellent.
More importantly, there is more than one route for him to contend. He has the length to take advantage of the par fives, but unlike some of the other big hitters, he has also shown real touch around the greens and enough confidence on the putting surfaces.
His first Masters did not go especially well, but on this year's form, he looks far more likely to improve than repeat it.
Jacob Bridgeman has already proved this season that he can win against a quality field, and doing so at Riviera immediately makes him worth a second look for Augusta. Few courses ask for a more complete game and he handled it brilliantly, gaining almost six strokes with his irons and more than seven with the putter.
That has not been a one-off. He followed with fifth at Sawgrass and 14th at the Valspar, so there is clearly substance to the run rather than one hot week. The key point is how balanced his game has become. He has gained strokes in every area across his best finishes this year and does not look reliant on one club carrying him.
Augusta can often expose players with obvious weaknesses. Bridgeman does not appear to have one right now, which makes him dangerous at much bigger odds than his recent form probably deserves.
Harry Hall is easy to overlook because he does not have the power of many around him in the market, but there are enough signs to think 90/1 with 10 places underrates him slightly. He was ninth at Bay Hill, sixth in Hawaii and respectable again in Houston, all on courses that ask plenty of the short game.
That remains his biggest asset. Hall is one of the better putters in the field and usually gains strokes with his short game as well. Augusta can expose limited ball-striking, so there is a risk that he simply does not create enough chances. But if conditions get tricky and par becomes more valuable than usual, his ability to save shots could keep him in the picture longer than expected.
Ryan Gerard arrives at Augusta after a series of encouraging displays. He was runner-up in Hawaii and at The American Express, before adding 11th at Torrey Pines and 27th at Sawgrass.
The strength of his game has been from the tee. Gerard has been driving it well, creating plenty of chances and giving himself the sort of opportunities needed to score at Augusta. If he can continue to take advantage of the par fives, he should not be far away.
He also has a little more major championship substance than some in this range of the betting after finishing eighth in last year's PGA Championship. The short game remains the main concern, but if he has a decent week in the recovery areas and with the putter he could make those each-way terms worthwhile.
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