Key Points
- Revenge on the mind for Three Lions?
- Precarious position in Nations League a bigger motivator
- Carsley’s penultimate game in charge
England face a tricky trip to Athens as interim head coach Lee Carsley looks to avenge the defeat suffered just last month when the sides meet once again in the UEFA Nations League Group B2.
Greece produced a shock result at Wembley when the teams met in October, as Ivan Jovanovic’s side won 2-1 thanks to a brace from Vangelis Pavlidis in what was Greece’s first-ever win against England in their history.
England have since appointed German Thomas Tuchel as the new manager with Carsley in charge for just two more fixtures before stepping down. The Three Lions are 2nd in the group standings, gaining 9 points after their first 4 fixtures and trail Greece by 3 points, who top the group having won all 4 of their matches so far.
Carlsey won’t want Wembley repeat
Lee Carsley will be all too aware of avoiding another embarrassing loss when his side enters the Olympic Stadium in Athens on Thursday night but will know his team face a nation in strong form. Greece are looking to be only the 5th side in history to defeat England twice in the same calendar year.
Since replacing Gus Poyet as manager of the national side, Jovanovic’s Greece have won all 4 matches under his stewardship. Not only this, Greece have only conceded 1 goal in the 4 games, and that was Jude Bellingham’s strike at Wembley, so are certainly no pushovers.
Carsley was also heavily criticised for his formation and starting 11 when the teams faced off last month. Many pundits and fans said the interim boss got the balance of the team all wrong when he selected so many attacking players, so it will be interesting to see if lessons have been learned this time around.
Who you gonna call? The B Team!
With as many as 8 players withdrawing for the upcoming two games, Carsley will have no choice but to change things up this time. Bukayo Saka, Phil Foden, Cole Palmer and Declan Rice are just some of the players who have pulled out due to injury so I expect some changes from the fixture back in October.
Amongst those called up are Morgan Rogers of Aston Villa, Lewis Hall from Newcastle and Southampton’s Taylor Harwood-Bellis who have earned their first-ever inclusion to the senior squad after impressing for their respective clubs this campaign.
Jarrod Bowen, Tino Livramento, James Trafford and Jarrad Branthwaite have also been added to the squad for the two matches, so I envisage a much more inexperienced yet more balanced line-up on Thursday night.
Hard-to-break Greek rearguard
Along with Romania, Greece are the only side to have won all 4 of their Group B2 matches and have the joint 2nd-best goal difference across the 4 fixtures. Jovanovic’s men have won 7 of their last 10 international matches and each of the last 3 games on home soil without even conceding a goal.
England have won 3 of their last 4 international games since the final of Euro 2024, but will find it tough to beat Thursday’s opponents in my opinion, especially with Greece’s solid defensive foundation.
Can ‘Greece Lightning’ strike again?
I was initially drawn to the Asian Handicap market with Greece +0.25 at just over even money with
bet365. Given the number of regular first-team absentees for The Three Lions along with the recent form and home record of Jovanovic’s side, you can make a good case they’ll avoid defeat. And at the prices being offered, the value lies in the Greece-leaning outcomes.
England do have a good recent record winning 4 of their previous trips to face Greece by an aggregate of 9-1 and did at least respond with an away win at Finland after losing last month. Moreover, they will certainly be looking to avenge the defeat.
It’s also fair to say there was an extra motivation for Greece that night in October with the sad passing of George Baldock. There is just enough doubt for me to swerve this bet.
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Greece over 10.5 fouls at 4/7 with SkyBet
I’m most interested in cards and fouls in this game, I think it’ll be physical with the aforementioned desire to avenge the defeat and sort this Nation’s League situation out for England. The Greeks were physical at Wembley and will be so again roared on in a cauldron-like atmosphere.
Greece made 14 fouls in the victory in England and I can see a very similar number of infringements Thursday night, if not more if England are to improve their levels and possession. A simple must-bet for me comes in the shape of over 10.5 Greece fouls at
SkyBet.
Over 4.5 total cards at 4/5 with Unibet
The market anticipates cards in the game with over 4.5 cards as short as 6/10 in places. I tend to agree particularly with Greece’s discipline so far of picking up an average of 3 yellows per game during this campaign. The card count ended on 6 at Wembley with 4 for Greece and 2 for England.
Once again, I believe the atmosphere expected on Thursday can contribute to an equally high if not higher card count. The ref Daniel Siebert shows a high average number of yellows for a Bundesliga ref with 4.8 this season and has shown 20 cards in 3 International games this year.
All the ducks are in a row for this bet and I’m happy to be getting 4/5 at
Unibet
while other books lay at 6/10.
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Greece vs England Best Bets
- Market:
Team Fouls
- Selection:
Greece Over 10.5
- Odds:
4/7
- Stake:
2pts
- Bookie:
SkyBet
- Market:
Total Cards
- Selection:
Over 4.5
- Odds:
4/5
- Stake:
1pt
- Bookie:
Unibet
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