Saturday Racing Betting Tip Betting Tips: Jardine can spring a surprise at York

There are likely easier puzzles to solve this weekend when it comes to the racing at York, Newmarket, Chepstow etc but in terms of value propositions I’ve identified one in a tricky handicap at York on Saturday.

The delightfully named Coral Daily Rewards Shaker Handicap will be run at 2.05pm, it’s a class 2 handicap just over 1m2f for 3-year-olds and upwards rated 0-105.

Conditions to suit

The ground is currently soft, and heavy in places with a going stick reading this morning of 5.4. There isn’t set to be much more appreciable rain between now and race time so it looks like it will dry up a little. Regardless, there is a strong chance soft will feature in the description and it could be quite tacky.

Having a horse that will go on the ground is a requisite, my selection ticks that box having recorded his best two RPRs on soft ground during August and September. In fact when the description has been soft, Paddy The Squire has form figures 2123 aside from a down-the-field effort in the Cambridgeshire.
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previous good run(s) at York would be another big plus point as this track can catch some horses out despite it being fair and flat. Our charge doesn’t have that tick in the box but we have what looks to be a nice weight swing with a horse less than half the price of ours.

Big discrepancy in odds

Stressfree for the excellent David O’Meara team finished in front of Paddy The Squire (1.75l distance) at Chester on September 14th. That was while receiving 9lb from our selection.

On Saturday we will be receiving 3lb and that would give us an edge on the pure weights and measures. The discrepancy in odds is too great with Stressfree at 11/1 best price with and Paddy The Squire at 25/1.

25/1 is value while also respecting the FAV

There are genuine dangers that have to be respected at the top of the market, primarily in the form of Sheikh Mohammed Obaid’s Bolster.

With a win on soft and some class form when beaten less than 6 lengths by Jan Brueghel in the International Stakes (Group 3) back in June over in Ireland, this is the class horse of the race. That being said, we will be receiving the best part of a stone and a half from the fav.

Our tip: Paddy the Squire at 25/1 E/W with bet365

For the reasons outlined, I think at 25/1 and outsider of the pack is a little insulting from bet365’s compilers. Our horse who was noticeably nibbled at in the previously mentioned Cambridgeshire 2 weekends ago wasn’t beaten miles and didn’t receive a hard time of it when win prospects had gone.

That run was again with give in the ground and I feel like the shrewd Iain Jardine thinks a mark of 86 will be within reach. More than capable of landing big handicaps at premier tracks when he plots one out, we are likely getting a few extra points here just because Balding, Beckett and Burke are more high-profile names to be competing against.

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Saturday York Racing Best Bet

• Race: 2.05pm York
• Selection: Paddy The Squire
• Odds: 25/1
• Stake: 0.5pt E/W (paying 1/5 odds 4 places)
• Bookie: bet365

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