Cheltenham Festival Day 1 Selections
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Selection: Old Park Star
He’s looked the standout performer in my opinion so far this season and the one who has really caught the eye among this field of novices. His performance in the Grade 2 at Haydock, where he clocked a Racing Post Rating of 152, is comfortably the best piece of form we’ve seen coming into this race. The way he travelled through that contest and then quickened when asked suggested there is a serious engine under the bonnet. His jumping has also been the most assured and fluent of the field so far, which is always a big asset in a race like the Supreme where the pace is relentless from the start. The way he galloped all the way through the line at Haydock really told me there is plenty of stamina there as well as speed, and that combination could prove vital up the famous Cheltenham hill.
It’s undoubtedly a hot and competitive race with several exciting types lining up, but I do have some reservations about a few of the others towards the top of the market. The preparation for El Cairos doesn’t look the strongest for a Supreme contender, coming here off the back of two maiden runs where he’s fallen once and nearly fell again. That doesn’t inspire confidence in such a high-pressure race. Mighty Park is also a horse with plenty of ability but he remains something of an unknown quantity at this level, and I’d rather side with the proven form. If you’re looking for something at a bigger price among the rest then good luck to you, but for me the combination of Nicky Henderson and Old Park Star is the one I’m happy to stick with.
Arkle Novices Chase
Selection: Kopek Des Bordes
I’ll stick with Kopek Des Bordes here despite the obvious question mark surrounding his experience over fences. Yes, he comes into the race off the back of just a single chase run, which would normally be a concern in a race as demanding as the Arkle. However, we are talking about a horse who has already shown superstar potential over hurdles and who produced performances that marked him out as something special. The strength behind him in the betting also tells its own story, suggesting connections and the market both believe he is capable of making the transition successfully. His jumping on debut over fences was very encouraging and he looked natural and confident at his obstacles. On top of that he’s already a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner, which means he has proven Cheltenham Festival form and we know he handles the unique demands of the track and atmosphere.
I’m prepared to take the risk with his relative inexperience over fences because he simply has that X-factor that the others may not possess. Lulamba is clearly the obvious danger having won all three of his starts over fences and showing plenty of ability, but I just feel Kopek Des Bordes may have a few more gears when it matters. As for the rest of the field, I struggled to make a convincing case for them and I’m happy to keep faith with the class horse in the race.
Boodles Juvenile Hurdle
Selection: Saratoga
Padraig Roach won this race back in 2022 with Brazil and I have a feeling he could repeat that success this year with Saratoga. This race often suits a well-handicapped juvenile who has been quietly prepared for the occasion, and Saratoga looks like he fits that profile very well. With JP McManus as the owner and Mark Walsh booked to ride, the connections certainly catch the eye and it wouldn’t be the first time they have landed a valuable handicap at the festival.
He currently runs off a UK mark of 130 which looks workable based on what he has shown so far. His second place finish behind Hyland Crystal reads like a solid piece of form in my book and suggests he is improving at the right time. Interestingly, that is the same race that Brazil contested before going on to win this very race, which adds another layer of confidence to the form line. Saratoga looks to have been trained specifically with this target in mind and the preparation seems spot on.
Everything about his profile suggests he is perfectly primed for a big run and I would be surprised if he isn’t right there in the mix when they turn for home.
Ultima Handicap
Selection: Jagwar
I’m going to stick with Jagwar here as he steps up in trip, particularly with the addition of first-time cheekpieces which could bring about further improvement. He won the Plate at last season’s festival which already proves he handles the big stage and the unique demands of Cheltenham. In my view the extra distance should not be a problem at all and may even unlock a bit more from him. The slightly steadier pace you often see in races like the Ultima compared to the Plate could also help him settle and jump more fluently.
His most recent form also reads very well. He was only narrowly beaten by Donnacha, going down by just a head despite having to concede 17 pounds to the winner. The pair pulled around ten lengths clear of the third that day in what was a strong handicap at Cheltenham back in January. That piece of form stands out and suggests he is still progressing as a staying chaser. I actually think Jagwar has the potential to develop into a graded performer as he continues to mature and step up in distance. If that progression continues here then I believe he has every chance of winning a race like this.
Champion Hurdle
Selection: Lossiemouth
I’ve come around to the idea of the mare finally lining up in the Champion Hurdle and potentially going on to win it. Lossiemouth is already a dual Mares’ Hurdle winner which shows just how talented she is, and her record at Cheltenham speaks for itself. She clearly loves the track and seems to save some of her very best performances for the festival. Conditions could also play perfectly into her hands, as the better ground is likely to allow her to show her turn of foot to full effect.
She does have to reverse the form from the Irish Champion Hurdle with Brighterdaysahead, which is obviously a notable challenge. However, Cheltenham is a very different test and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the form is turned around here. The New Lion is another talented contender but when you really analyse the form he hasn’t quite reached the same level of performance as Lossiemouth so far. He may well prove good enough, but he still has to go and show it on the biggest stage. With Paul Townend in the saddle and the benefit of the 7-pound mares’ allowance under conditions she should enjoy, I’m happy to side with Lossiemouth to come out on top.
Plate Handicap
Selection: Madara
I’ve been on Madara from the start of the season and I don’t see any reason to desert him now that we’re approaching the festival. He unfortunately missed the first half of the campaign through injury, but the important thing is that he appears to be back in good form and building nicely towards this target. His two recent prep runs have been solid without being overly taxing, which suggests the main objective has always been the Plate. One of the key factors for me is the return of the cheekpieces. He has won wearing these in the past and it clearly seems to bring out the best in him. Interestingly he didn’t wear any headgear for either of his prep runs, which suggests connections were deliberately keeping something back for this race. Off a mark of 140 he still looks fairly treated if he returns to the level we know he is capable of producing.
Everything about his preparation points towards this being the day, and in my opinion he has to go very close if things fall his way.
Day 1 selections
All odds with BetMGM
1:20 Old Park Star 2/1
2:00 Kopek Des Bordes 6/4
2:40 Saratoga 5/1
3:20 Jagwar 9/2
4:00 Lossiemouth 5/2
4:40 Madara 4/1
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